A typology of compound weather and climate events

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 1(7), P. 333 - 347

Published: June 15, 2020

Language: Английский

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Understanding and managing connected extreme events

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 10(7), P. 611 - 621

Published: June 15, 2020

Language: Английский

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A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

One Earth, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 4(4), P. 489 - 501

Published: April 1, 2021

Real-world experience underscores the complexity of interactions among multiple drivers climate change risk and how risks compound or cascade. However, a holistic framework for assessing such complex has not yet been achieved. Clarity is needed regarding that generate risk, including role adaptation mitigation responses. In this perspective, we present three categories increasingly focus on as well risks. A significant innovation recognizing can arise both from potential impacts due to responses change. This approach encourages thinking traverses sectoral regional boundaries links physical socio-economic risk. Advancing assessment in these ways essential more informed decision making reduces negative impacts.

Language: Английский

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Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 10(12), P. 1074 - 1084

Published: Nov. 25, 2020

Language: Английский

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Causes, impacts and patterns of disastrous river floods

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(9), P. 592 - 609

Published: Aug. 10, 2021

Language: Английский

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Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information

Proceedings of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 475(2225), P. 20190013 - 20190013

Published: May 1, 2019

Climate science seeks to make statements of confidence about what has happened, and will happen (conditional on scenario). The approach is effective for the global, thermodynamic aspects climate change, but ineffective when it comes change related atmospheric circulation, which are highly uncertain. Yet, circulation strongly mediates impacts at regional scale. In this way, framework, focuses avoiding type 1 errors (false alarms), raises prospect committing 2 (missed warnings). This ethical implications. At scale, however, where information be combined with many other factors affecting vulnerability exposure-most uncertain-the societally relevant question not 'What happen?' rather impact particular actions under an uncertain change?' reframing can cut Gordian knot information, provided one distinguishes between epistemic aleatoric uncertainties-something that generally done in projections. It argued storyline change-the identification physically self-consistent, plausible pathways-has potential accomplish precisely this.

Language: Английский

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Challenges in modeling and predicting floods and droughts: A review

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 8(3)

Published: March 11, 2021

Abstract Predictions of floods, droughts, and fast drought‐flood transitions are required at different time scales to develop management strategies targeted minimizing negative societal economic impacts. Forecasts daily seasonal scale vital for early warning, estimation event frequency hydraulic design, long‐term projections developing adaptation future conditions. All three types predictions—forecasts, estimates, projections—typically treat droughts floods independently, even though both extremes can be studied using related approaches have similar challenges. In this review, we (a) identify challenges common drought flood prediction their joint assessment (b) discuss tractable tackle these We group into four interrelated categories: data, process understanding, modeling prediction, human–water interactions. Data‐related include data availability definition. Process‐related the multivariate spatial characteristics extremes, non‐stationarities, changes in extremes. Modeling arise analysis, stochastic, hydrological, earth system, modeling. Challenges with respect interactions lie establishing links impacts, representing interactions, science communication. potential ways tackling including exploiting new sources, studying a framework, influences compounding drivers, continuous stochastic models or non‐stationary models, obtaining stakeholder feedback. Tackling one several will improve predictions help minimize impacts extreme events. This article is categorized under: Science Water >

Language: Английский

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Framing, Context, and Methods

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 147 - 286

Published: June 29, 2023

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Language: Английский

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The need to integrate flood and drought disaster risk reduction strategies

Water Security, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 11, P. 100070 - 100070

Published: Nov. 10, 2020

Most research on hydrological risks focuses either flood risk or drought risk, whilst floods and droughts are two extremes of the same cycle. To better design disaster reduction (DRR) measures strategies, it is important to consider interactions between these closely linked phenomena. We show examples of: (a) how DRR can have (unintended) positive negative impacts opposite hazard; (b) be negatively impacted by hazard. focus dikes levees, dams, stormwater control upstream measures, subsurface storage, migration, agricultural practices, vulnerability preparedness. identify key challenges for moving towards a more holistic management approach.

Language: Английский

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Convection‐permitting modeling with regional climate models: Latest developments and next steps

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(6)

Published: Aug. 16, 2021

Abstract Approximately 10 years ago, convection‐permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs) emerged as a promising computationally affordable tool to produce fine resolution (1–4 km) decadal‐long simulations with explicitly resolved deep convection. This explicit representation is expected reduce projection uncertainty related convection parameterizations found in most models. A recent surge CPRCM decadal over larger domains, sometimes covering continents, has led important insights into advantages and limitations. Furthermore, new observational gridded datasets spatial temporal (~1 km; ~1 h) resolutions have leveraged additional knowledge through evaluations of the added value CPRCMs. With an improved coordination frame ongoing international initiatives, production ensembles provide more robust projections better identification their associated uncertainties. review paper presents overview methodology latest research on current future climates. Impact studies that are already taking advantage these highlighted. ends by proposing next steps could be accomplished continue exploiting full potential article categorized under: Climate Models Modeling > Earth System

Language: Английский

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