Forecasting deforestation and carbon loss across New Guinea using machine learning and cellular automata

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 970, С. 178864 - 178864

Опубликована: Март 1, 2025

The island of New Guinea harbors some the world's most biologically diverse and highly endemic tropical ecosystems. Nevertheless, progressing land-use change in region threatens their integrity, which will adversely affect biodiversity as well carbon stocks fluxes. Our objectives were to (1) compare deforestation drivers between Indonesian Papua Guinea, (2) identify areas with a high risk future under different development scenarios, (3) evaluate effects potential scenarios on pools. We integrated machine learning cellular automata model forecast across Guinea. assessed loss irrecoverable for four ranging from 4.8 % (business-as-usual) 28 (high scenario) forest 2020 2040. Areas consistently forecasted lowland regions scenarios. In 75 was below ~380 m a.s.l., but ranged higher (<750 a.s.l.). Land change-induced varied largely 156 918 Mt 223 1082 respectively. analysis reveals promising integrating random forests models high-resolution over large spatial extents. reveal vulnerability Guinea's lowlands deforestation, emphasizing need protect key where conflicts conservation stocks, ecosystem functions, biodiversity. ABSTRACT IN BAHASA INDONESIA: Pulau merupakan rumah bagi beberapa ekosistem tropis yang paling beragam secara biologis dan sangat endemik di dunia. Namun demikian, perubahan penggunaan lahan terus terjadi kawasan ini mengancam integritas tersebut, akan berdampak buruk terhadap keanekaragaman hayati serta persdiaan fluks karbon. Tujuan penelitian adalah membandingkan penyebab deforestasi antara Nugini, mengidentifikasi dengan risiko tinggi masa depan berdasarkan skenario pembangunan berbeda, mengevaluasi dampak potensial sumber . Kami mengintegrasikan pembelajaran mesin seluler untuk memodelkan memperkirakan seluruh menilai potensi hilangnya cadangan karbon tidak dapat dipulihkan empat berkisar 4,8 (skenario biasa) hingga tinggi) tahun Wilayah konsisten diperkirakan berada wilayah dataran rendah dalam deforestasi. Di bawah dpl, namun lebih Nugini dpl). Hilangnya disebabkan oleh bervariasi keempat masing-masing 1.082 Nugini. Analisis kami mengungkapkan menjanjikan hutan acak resolusi pada spasial luas. Model mengungkap bahwa kerentanan depan, menekankan perlunya melindungi wilayah-wilayah utama mana bertentangan konservasi persediaan karbon, fungsi ekosistem, hayati.

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Refined burned-area mapping protocol using Sentinel-2 data increases estimate of 2019 Indonesian burning

Earth system science data, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 13(11), С. 5353 - 5368

Опубликована: Ноя. 18, 2021

Abstract. Many nations are challenged by landscape fires. A confident knowledge of the area and distribution burning is crucial to monitor these fires assess how they might best be reduced. Given differences that arise using different detection approaches, uncertainties surrounding burned-area estimates, their relative merits require evaluation. Here we propose, illustrate, examine one promising approach for Indonesia where recurring forest peatland have become an international crisis. Drawing on Sentinel-2 satellite time-series analysis, present validate new 2019 estimates Indonesia. The corresponding map available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4551243 (Gaveau et al., 2021a). We show >3.11 million hectares (Mha) burned in 2019. This extent double Landsat-derived official estimate 1.64 Mha from Indonesian Ministry Environment Forestry 50 % more MODIS MCD64A1 2.03 Mha. Though observed proportionally less (31 vs. 39 40 products, respectively), absolute terms still a greater affected (0.96 Mha) than (0.64 Mha). dataset has reliability alternatives, attaining user accuracy 97.9 (CI: 97.1 %–98.8 %) compared 95.1 93.5 %–96.7 76 73.3 %–78.7 %), respectively. It omits fewer areas, particularly smaller- (<100 ha) intermediate-sized (100–1000 burns, producer 75.6 68.3 %–83.0 49.5 42.5 %–56.6 53.1 45.8 %–60.5 frequency–area burn scars follows apparent fractal-like power law or Pareto pattern often reported other fire studies, suggesting good over several magnitudes scale. Our relatively accurate important implications carbon-emission calculations

Язык: Английский

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Refining greenhouse gas emission factors for Indonesian peatlands and mangroves to meet ambitious climate targets

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 121(17)

Опубликована: Апрель 15, 2024

For countries’ emission-reduction efforts under the Paris Agreement to be effective, baseline emission/removals levels and reporting must as transparent accurate possible. Indonesia, which holds among largest area of tropical peatlands mangrove forest in world, it is particularly important for these high-carbon ecosystems produce high-accuracy greenhouse gas inventory improve national reference emissions level/forest level. Here, we highlight opportunity refining emission factors (EF) mangroves describe scientific challenges support climate policy processes where 55 59% reduction targets by 2030 depend on mitigation Forestry Other Land Use. Based stock-difference flux change approaches, examine higher-tier EF drained rewetted peatland, peatland fires, conversions, future Indonesia. We suggest that refinements will essential Indonesia achieving Forest Use net sink zero 2060 or earlier.

Язык: Английский

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Emerging threats from deforestation and forest fragmentation in the Wallacea centre of endemism

Environmental Research Letters, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 16(9), С. 094048 - 094048

Опубликована: Июль 19, 2021

Abstract The Wallacea biogeographic region of Sulawesi, the Moluccas and Lesser Sunda is globally renowned for exceptional endemism, but currently emerging as a development frontier in Indonesia. We assessed patterns drivers forest loss fragmentation across region, used dynamic deforestation models to project future 2053. Up 10 231 km 2 was deforested between 2000 2018, further 49 570 expected be lost by 2053, with annual rates ranging 0.09% 2.17% different sub-regions (average: 1.23%). Key biodiversity areas (priority sites endemic threatened biodiversity) are particularly vulnerable if they small, coastal unprotected. Sub-regional variation must acknowledged conservation interventions targeted effective. provide valuable baseline from which monitor Wallacea’s new course, Indonesia undergoes profound policy changes that will both challenges opportunities environmental governance conservation.

Язык: Английский

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Soil Degradation Due to Conversion from Natural to Plantation Forests in Indonesia

Forests, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 13(11), С. 1913 - 1913

Опубликована: Ноя. 14, 2022

Soil organic matter (SOM) is a crucial component of soil, through which physical, chemical, and biological characteristics interact in local context. Within the forest category, conversion natural forests to monoculture plantations has raised concerns Indonesia over loss soil functions, similar agriculture. In forests, SOM can accumulate as part closed nutrient cycle with minimal losses; plantation forestry, decline recovery alternate time, associated larger losses. We reviewed existing studies quantify how shifts from short-rotation (SRPF) affect dynamics, contents, soil-borne pathogens that cause disease. The review combines descriptive quantitative methods (meta-analysis). results show affects C balance, structure water diseases. Contributing factors include reduced diversity plant rhizosphere communities, lower annual litter production, more uniform quality, removal at harvest cycle. Conversion conditions also increases disease incidence by changing control mechanisms.

Язык: Английский

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Implications of large-scale infrastructure development for biodiversity in Indonesian Borneo

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 866, С. 161075 - 161075

Опубликована: Дек. 21, 2022

Indonesia is embarking on an ambitious relocation of its capital city to Kalimantan, Borneo, bringing with it major urban and road infrastructure. Yet, despite being one the world's most biologically diverse regions, potential implications this development for wildlife have yet be fully assessed. We explored impacts relocation, expansion upgrades critical habitat medium-large mammals (>1 kg) using camera trap data from 11 forested landscapes. applied Bayesian multi-species occupancy models predict community species-level responses anthropogenic environmental factors. extrapolated spatial patterns species diversity across forests Kalimantan identified "critical habitats" as top 20th percentile richness values. subsequently overlapped these layers infrastructure impact zones estimate area that could potentially affected by direct or secondary impacts. At both species-level, distance primary roads had strongest negative influence habitat-use. Occupancy was also influenced forest quality multidimensional poverty conditions in adjacent villages, demonstrating sensitivity biodiversity socio-ecological pressures. Less than 1 % threatened mammal lay within zone (30 km radius) relocation. However, approximately 16 located 200 uncontrolled such sprawl associated regional development. The often-overlooked upgrading existing intersect a large amount lowland species. Mitigating far-reaching should incorporated into assessments. This will provide opportunity set example sustainable tropics.

Язык: Английский

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Monitoring road development in Congo Basin forests with multi-sensor satellite imagery and deep learning

Remote Sensing of Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown, С. 114380 - 114380

Опубликована: Сен. 1, 2024

Язык: Английский

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An ecolinguistic study: The representation of forest conservation practices in the discourse of Anak Dalam Jambi tribe, Indonesia

Cogent Arts and Humanities, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 10(1)

Опубликована: Сен. 27, 2023

During the past decades, a study exploring forest conservation practices among Anak Dalam Jambi Tribe (ADJT), minority group on brink of extinction living as nomads Sumatra Island, Province, Indonesia, has not been found. To fill this gap, qualitative research, utilizing Ecolinguistic theory, aims to explore eco-lexicon meaning related representation in discourse. The were derived from 69 participants using ethnographic interviews and rapport techniques. results research reveal that carried out by ADJT are four aspects, which they employ maintain environmental harmony: ideology (as guiding principle life), biology reference for meeting basic needs), sociology regulating interactions between humans, humans deities, forest), culture traditional ways treating through customary laws, rituals, oral literature). Drawing findings, it can be concluded representations conveyed provide insights into protecting creating harmonious coexistence nature beings, is inseparable religious values believe in. For community, environment just natural world but also metaphysical realm. Lastly, pilot study, foundational step future topics language interconnected with ecosystem.

Язык: Английский

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Sagu as an Indigenous Culinary Tradition in the Tourism Destination of Papua, Indonesia

IGI Global eBooks, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 157 - 188

Опубликована: Март 13, 2025

Sagu (Metroxylon sagu), a staple of the indigenous culinary tradition holds significant social and cultural values for local communities in Indonesia, particularly Papua. As Papua emerges as tourism destination, sagu-based rural development model has changed from massive industrial driven by traditional economic paradigm to that transcends practices community-based values. By applying post-growth perspective, this study aims explores role sagu key element culture amidst large industries Indonesia. The also provides insights into balancing supports rather than undermines traditions, while addressing concerns related wellbeing, environmental sustainability, preservation.

Язык: Английский

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Diverging Conservation Priorities Across New Guinea: Conflicts and Opportunities

Global Ecology and Conservation, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. e03549 - e03549

Опубликована: Март 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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