Assessment of the European Climate Projections as Simulated by the Large EURO‐CORDEX Regional and Global Climate Model Ensemble

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 126(4)

Опубликована: Ноя. 21, 2020

Abstract This paper analyzes the ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections for Europe completed within EURO‐CORDEX project. Projections are available two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP2.6 (22 members) and RCP8.5 (55 at 0.11° resolution from 11 RCMs driven by eight global models (GCMs). The RCM results compared with driving CMIP5 but also a subset last generation CMIP6 projections. Maximum warming is projected all ensembles in Northern winter, along maximum precipitation increase there; summer, occurs Mediterranean Southern European regions associated decrease. shows largest signals, both temperature precipitation, inter‐model spread. There high consensus across on an extreme drought frequency region. Extreme indices show heat extremes decrease cold extremes, showing highest values finest spatial details. data set unprecedented size quality will provide basis impact assessment service activities

Язык: Английский

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Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2021, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Март 2, 2021

Язык: Английский

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21st Century alpine climate change

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 60(1-2), С. 65 - 86

Опубликована: Май 10, 2022

Abstract A comprehensive assessment of twenty-first century climate change in the European Alps is presented. The analysis based on EURO-CORDEX regional model ensemble available at two grid spacings (12.5 and 50 km) for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 8.5). core simulation has been subject to a dedicated evaluation exercise carried out frame CH2018 Climate Scenarios Switzerland. Results reveal that entire Alpine region will face warmer course all considered. Strongest warming projected summer season, regions south main ridge high-end RCP 8.5 scenario. Depending medium high elevations might experience an amplified warming. Model uncertainty can be considerable, but major patterns are consistent across ensemble. For precipitation, seasonal shift precipitation amounts from winter over most parts domain projected. However, individual simulations show signals opposite sign. Daily intensity increase seasons sub-domains, while wet-day frequency decrease season. temperature negatively correlated with change, i.e. and/or strong mean typically stronger decrease. By contrast, positive correlation between found winter. Among other indicators, snow cover strongly affected by climatic changes widespread except very elevation settings. In general magnitude increases assumed forcing, i.e., smallest 2.6 largest being located between. These results largely agree previous works older generations RCM ensembles but, due comparatively large size spatial resolution, allow more decent inherent projection uncertainties details future change.

Язык: Английский

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Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021

Climatic Change, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 176(7)

Опубликована: Июнь 29, 2023

In July 2021 extreme rainfall across Western Europe caused severe flooding and substantial impacts, including over 200 fatalities extensive infrastructure damage within Germany the Benelux countries. After event, a hydrological assessment probabilistic event attribution analysis of data were initiated complemented by discussing vulnerability exposure context. The global mean surface temperature (GMST) served as covariate in generalised value distribution fitted to observational model data, exploiting dependence on GMST estimate how anthropogenic climate change affects likelihood severity events. Rainfall accumulations Ahr/Erft Belgian Meuse catchment vastly exceeded previous observed records. regions that limited size robust estimation return values detection trends are challenging. However, for larger European region it was found that, under current conditions, average one this magnitude can be expected every 400 years at any given location. Consequently, entire region, events similar occur more frequently than once years. Anthropogenic has already increased intensity maximum 1-day summer season 3–19 %. such an today compared 1.2 $$^{\circ }$$ C cooler factor 1.2–9. Models indicate frequency will further increase with future warming. While small-scale remains challenging, study shows there is ones causing impacts when considering region.

Язык: Английский

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Attributing and Projecting Heatwaves Is Hard: We Can Do Better

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 10(6)

Опубликована: Май 20, 2022

It sounds straightforward. As the Earth warms due to increased concentration of greenhouse gases in atmosphere, global temperatures rise and so heatwaves become warmer as well. This means that a fixed temperature threshold is passed more often: probability extreme heat increases. However, land use changes, vegetation change, irrigation, air pollution, other changes also drive local regional trends heatwaves. Sometimes they enhance heatwave intensity, but can counteract effects climate some regions, mechanisms impact on have not yet been fully identified. Climate models simulate intensity reasonably well large scales. annual daily maximum do follow warming over including Eastern United States parts Asia, reflecting influence drivers natural variability. Also, variability unrealistic many models, fail standard quality checks. Therefore, reliable attribution projection change remain major scientific challenge particularly where moisture budget simulated, surface short-lived forcers, soil interactions are important.

Язык: Английский

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Machine Learning Methods in Weather and Climate Applications: A Survey

Applied Sciences, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 13(21), С. 12019 - 12019

Опубликована: Ноя. 3, 2023

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, machine learning is gradually becoming popular for predictions in all walks life. In meteorology, it competing with traditional climate dominated by physical models. This survey aims to consolidate current understanding Machine Learning (ML) applications weather and prediction—a field growing importance across multiple sectors, including agriculture disaster management. Building upon an exhaustive review more than 20 methods highlighted existing literature, this pinpointed eight techniques that show particular promise improving accuracy both short-term medium-to-long-term forecasts. According survey, while ML demonstrates significant capabilities prediction, its application forecasting remains limited, constrained factors such as intricate variables data limitations. Current literature tends focus narrowly on either or forecasting, often neglecting relationship between two, well general neglect modeling structure recent advances. By providing integrated analysis models spanning different time scales, bridge these gaps, thereby serving a meaningful guide future interdisciplinary research rapidly evolving field.

Язык: Английский

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BioVars - A bioclimatic dataset for Europe based on a large regional climate ensemble for periods in 1971–2098

Scientific Data, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 12(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 5, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Modulation of radiative aerosols effects by atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Mediterranean region

Atmospheric chemistry and physics, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 20(14), С. 8315 - 8349

Опубликована: Июль 17, 2020

Abstract. The present work aims at better understanding regional climate–aerosol interactions by studying the relationships between aerosols and synoptic atmospheric circulation over Euro-Mediterranean region. Two 40-year simulations (1979–2018) have been carried out with version 6.3 of Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (National for Meteorological Research) – Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational (CNRM-ALADIN) climate model, one using interactive other without any aerosol. simulation has evaluated in terms different aerosol parameters. This evaluation shows a good agreement model observations, significant improvements compared to previous consequently relevance this study A first attempt explain variability is based on use North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. latter explains part interannual variability, notably winter export dust Ocean eastern Mediterranean, summer positive anomalies anthropogenic western Europe. index however not sufficient fully understand variations region, daily scale. “weather regimes”, namely persisting meteorological patterns, stable scale few days, provides relevant description circulation, which drives emission, transport deposition aerosols. four weather regimes usually defined area bring information answer question. blocking NAO+ are largely favourable strong effects shortwave surface radiation near-surface temperature, either because higher loads or weaker cloud fraction, reinforces direct effect. Inversely, NAO− Ridge unfavourable radiative effects, concentrations increased cover. thus puts forward dependence from scales and, as consequence, important modulation temperature circulation. role cover essential shown regimes.

Язык: Английский

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COSMO-CLM regional climate simulations in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework: a review

Geoscientific model development, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 14(8), С. 5125 - 5154

Опубликована: Авг. 17, 2021

Abstract. In the last decade, Climate Limited-area Modeling Community (CLM-Community) has contributed to Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) with an extensive set of regional climate simulations. Using several versions COSMO-CLM-Community model, ERA-Interim reanalysis and eight global models from phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were dynamically downscaled horizontal grid spacings 0.44∘ (∼ 50 km), 0.22∘ 25 0.11∘ 12 km) over CORDEX domains Europe, South Asia, East Australasia, Africa. This major effort resulted in 80 simulations publicly available through Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) web portals for use impact studies scenario assessments. Here we review production these assess their results terms mean near-surface temperature precipitation aid future design COSMO-CLM model It is found that a domain-specific parameter tuning beneficial, while increasing resolution (from or km spacing) alone does not always improve performance simulation. Moreover, depends on driving data. generally more important than dependence resolution, version, configuration. Our emphasize importance performing projections coordinated way, where guidance both (GCM) (RCM) modeling communities needed increase reliability GCM–RCM chain.

Язык: Английский

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Projections of river floods in Europe using EURO‐CORDEX, CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 41(5), С. 3203 - 3221

Опубликована: Янв. 20, 2021

Abstract A large ensemble of hydroclimatic simulations is used to simulate the occurrence river floods over Europe in a climate change context. routing model derived from distributed hydrological (CHyM) forced with 44 EURO‐CORDEX, 13 CMIP5 and 7 CMIP6 assess effects on flood magnitude under two different scenarios. The impact evaluated using 100‐year return period discharge indicator (Q100). Results show decrease Q100 events Mediterranean, Scandinavia north eastern Europe. This latter signal appears particularly robust contrast projected mean flow signal, which shown increase by end century response increased precipitation. reduction snow accumulation during winter induced late temperatures main reason behind North Eastern regions. An opposite Great Britain, Ireland, Northern Italy Western Europe, where evident, being driven an extreme precipitation events. All these are intended for use assessment studies towards development suitable options.

Язык: Английский

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