A low-to-no snow future and its impacts on water resources in the western United States

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 2(11), С. 800 - 819

Опубликована: Окт. 26, 2021

Язык: Английский

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Increased Flood Exposure Due to Climate Change and Population Growth in the United States

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 8(11)

Опубликована: Окт. 30, 2020

Abstract Precipitation extremes are increasing globally due to anthropogenic climate change. However, there remains uncertainty regarding impacts upon flood occurrence and subsequent population exposure. Here, we quantify changes in exposure hazard across the contiguous United States. We combine simulations from a model large ensemble high‐resolution hydrodynamic model—allowing us directly assess wide range of extreme precipitation magnitudes accumulation timescales. report mean increase 100‐year event ~20% (magnitude) >200% (frequency) high warming scenario, yielding ~30–127% further find nonlinear for most intense events—suggesting accelerating societal historically rare or unprecedented events 21st century.

Язык: Английский

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Evidence of shorter more extreme rainfalls and increased flood variability under climate change

Journal of Hydrology, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 603, С. 126994 - 126994

Опубликована: Сен. 27, 2021

Язык: Английский

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A warming-induced reduction in snow fraction amplifies rainfall extremes

Nature, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 619(7969), С. 305 - 310

Опубликована: Июнь 28, 2023

Язык: Английский

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An extremeness threshold determines the regional response of floods to changes in rainfall extremes

Communications Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 2(1)

Опубликована: Авг. 26, 2021

Precipitation extremes will increase in a warming climate, but the response of flood magnitudes to heavier precipitation events is less clear. Historically, there little evidence for systematic increases magnitude despite observed extremes. Here we investigate how change warming, using large initial-condition ensemble simulations with single climate model, coupled hydrological model. The model chain was applied historical (1961–2000) and warmer future (2060–2099) conditions 78 watersheds Bavaria, region comprising headwater catchments Inn, Danube Main River, thus representing an area expressed heterogeneity. For majority catchments, identify ‘return interval threshold’ relationship between increases: at return intervals above this threshold, further extreme frequency clearly yield increased magnitudes; below modulated by land surface processes. We suggest that threshold behaviour can reconcile climatological perspectives on changing risk climate. Germany rainfall processes not above,

Язык: Английский

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How Do Climate and Catchment Attributes Influence Flood Generating Processes? A Large‐Sample Study for 671 Catchments Across the Contiguous USA

Water Resources Research, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 57(4)

Опубликована: Фев. 10, 2021

Abstract Hydrometeorological flood generating processes (excess rain, short long snowmelt, and rain‐on‐snow) underpin our understanding of behavior. Knowledge about improves hydrological models, frequency analysis, estimation climate change impact on floods, etc. Yet, not much is known how catchment attributes influence the spatial distribution processes. This study aims to offer a comprehensive structured approach close this knowledge gap. We employ large sample (671 catchments across contiguous United States) evaluate use two complementary approaches: A statistics‐based which compares attribute distributions different processes; random forest model in combination with an interpretable machine learning (accumulated local effects [ALE]). The ALE method has been used often hydrology, it overcomes significant obstacle many statistical methods, confounding effect correlated attributes. As expected, we find (fraction snow, aridity, precipitation seasonality, mean precipitation) be most influential process distribution. However, varies both type. also can predicted for ungauged relatively high accuracy ( R 2 between 0.45 0.9). implication these findings should considered future studies, as changes characteristics

Язык: Английский

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Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood

Science Advances, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 8(32)

Опубликована: Авг. 12, 2022

Despite the recent prevalence of severe drought, California faces a broadly underappreciated risk floods. Here, we investigate physical characteristics "plausible worst case scenario" extreme storm sequences capable giving rise to "megaflood" conditions using combination climate model data and high-resolution weather modeling. Using from Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, find that change has already doubled likelihood an event producing catastrophic flooding, but larger future increases are likely due continued warming. We further runoff in scenario is 200 400% greater than historical values Sierra Nevada because increased precipitation rates decreased snow fraction. These findings have direct implications for flood emergency management, as well broader hazard mitigation adaptation activities.

Язык: Английский

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An Overview of Flood Concepts, Challenges, and Future Directions

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 27(6)

Опубликована: Март 24, 2022

This review provides a broad overview of the current state flood research, challenges, and future directions. Beginning with discussion flood-generating mechanisms, synthesizes literature on forecasting, multivariate nonstationary frequency analysis, urban flooding, remote sensing floods. Challenges research directions are outlined highlight emerging topics where more work is needed to help mitigate risks. It anticipated that systems will likely have significant risk due compounding effects continued climate change land-use intensification. The timely prediction floods, quantification socioeconomic impacts developing mitigation strategies continue be challenging. There need bridge scales between model capabilities end-user needs by integrating multiscale models, stakeholder input, social citizen science input for monitoring, mapping, dissemination. Although much progress has been made in using applications, recent upcoming Earth Observations provide excellent potential unlock additional benefits applications. community can benefit from downscaled, as well ensemble scenarios consider changes. Efforts also data assimilation approaches, especially ingest local, citizen, media data. Also enhanced compound hazards assess reduce vulnerability impacts. dynamic complex interactions climate, societal change, watershed processes, human factors often confronted deep uncertainty highlights transdisciplinary science, policymakers, stakeholders vulnerability.

Язык: Английский

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Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 6(1), С. 35 - 50

Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Geomorphic and Sedimentary Effects of Modern Climate Change: Current and Anticipated Future Conditions in the Western United States

Reviews of Geophysics, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 58(4)

Опубликована: Окт. 24, 2020

Abstract Hydroclimatic changes associated with global warming over the past 50 years have been documented widely, but physical landscape responses are poorly understood thus far. Detecting sedimentary and geomorphic signals of modern climate change presents challenges owing to short record lengths, difficulty resolving in stochastic natural systems, influences land use tectonic activity, long‐lasting effects individual extreme events, variable connectivity sediment‐routing systems. We review existing literature investigate nature extent change, focusing on western United States, a region generally high relief sediment yield likely be sensitive climatic forcing. Based fundamental theory empirical evidence from other regions, we anticipate climate‐driven slope stability, watershed yields, fluvial morphology, aeolian mobilization States. find for recent stability increased dune dust whereas yields morphology linked more commonly nonclimatic drivers will require better understanding how response scales disturbance, lag times hysteresis operate within distinguish relative influence feedbacks superimposed disturbances. The ability constrain rapidly progressing has widespread implications human health safety, infrastructure, water security, economics, ecosystem resilience.

Язык: Английский

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