Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 615, P. 128689 - 128689
Published: Nov. 9, 2022
Language: Английский
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(11), P. 800 - 819
Published: Oct. 26, 2021
Language: Английский
Citations
298
Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 8(11)
Published: Oct. 30, 2020
Abstract Precipitation extremes are increasing globally due to anthropogenic climate change. However, there remains uncertainty regarding impacts upon flood occurrence and subsequent population exposure. Here, we quantify changes in exposure hazard across the contiguous United States. We combine simulations from a model large ensemble high‐resolution hydrodynamic model—allowing us directly assess wide range of extreme precipitation magnitudes accumulation timescales. report mean increase 100‐year event ~20% (magnitude) >200% (frequency) high warming scenario, yielding ~30–127% further find nonlinear for most intense events—suggesting accelerating societal historically rare or unprecedented events 21st century.
Language: Английский
Citations
221
Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 603, P. 126994 - 126994
Published: Sept. 27, 2021
Language: Английский
Citations
200
Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(1)
Published: Aug. 26, 2021
Precipitation extremes will increase in a warming climate, but the response of flood magnitudes to heavier precipitation events is less clear. Historically, there little evidence for systematic increases magnitude despite observed extremes. Here we investigate how change warming, using large initial-condition ensemble simulations with single climate model, coupled hydrological model. The model chain was applied historical (1961–2000) and warmer future (2060–2099) conditions 78 watersheds Bavaria, region comprising headwater catchments Inn, Danube Main River, thus representing an area expressed heterogeneity. For majority catchments, identify ‘return interval threshold’ relationship between increases: at return intervals above this threshold, further extreme frequency clearly yield increased magnitudes; below modulated by land surface processes. We suggest that threshold behaviour can reconcile climatological perspectives on changing risk climate. Germany rainfall processes not above,
Language: Английский
Citations
128
Nature, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 619(7969), P. 305 - 310
Published: June 28, 2023
Language: Английский
Citations
127
Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 57(4)
Published: Feb. 10, 2021
Abstract Hydrometeorological flood generating processes (excess rain, short long snowmelt, and rain‐on‐snow) underpin our understanding of behavior. Knowledge about improves hydrological models, frequency analysis, estimation climate change impact on floods, etc. Yet, not much is known how catchment attributes influence the spatial distribution processes. This study aims to offer a comprehensive structured approach close this knowledge gap. We employ large sample (671 catchments across contiguous United States) evaluate use two complementary approaches: A statistics‐based which compares attribute distributions different processes; random forest model in combination with an interpretable machine learning (accumulated local effects [ALE]). The ALE method has been used often hydrology, it overcomes significant obstacle many statistical methods, confounding effect correlated attributes. As expected, we find (fraction snow, aridity, precipitation seasonality, mean precipitation) be most influential process distribution. However, varies both type. also can predicted for ungauged relatively high accuracy ( R 2 between 0.45 0.9). implication these findings should considered future studies, as changes characteristics
Language: Английский
Citations
125
Science Advances, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 8(32)
Published: Aug. 12, 2022
Despite the recent prevalence of severe drought, California faces a broadly underappreciated risk floods. Here, we investigate physical characteristics "plausible worst case scenario" extreme storm sequences capable giving rise to "megaflood" conditions using combination climate model data and high-resolution weather modeling. Using from Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, find that change has already doubled likelihood an event producing catastrophic flooding, but larger future increases are likely due continued warming. We further runoff in scenario is 200 400% greater than historical values Sierra Nevada because increased precipitation rates decreased snow fraction. These findings have direct implications for flood emergency management, as well broader hazard mitigation adaptation activities.
Language: Английский
Citations
105
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 27(6)
Published: March 24, 2022
This review provides a broad overview of the current state flood research, challenges, and future directions. Beginning with discussion flood-generating mechanisms, synthesizes literature on forecasting, multivariate nonstationary frequency analysis, urban flooding, remote sensing floods. Challenges research directions are outlined highlight emerging topics where more work is needed to help mitigate risks. It anticipated that systems will likely have significant risk due compounding effects continued climate change land-use intensification. The timely prediction floods, quantification socioeconomic impacts developing mitigation strategies continue be challenging. There need bridge scales between model capabilities end-user needs by integrating multiscale models, stakeholder input, social citizen science input for monitoring, mapping, dissemination. Although much progress has been made in using applications, recent upcoming Earth Observations provide excellent potential unlock additional benefits applications. community can benefit from downscaled, as well ensemble scenarios consider changes. Efforts also data assimilation approaches, especially ingest local, citizen, media data. Also enhanced compound hazards assess reduce vulnerability impacts. dynamic complex interactions climate, societal change, watershed processes, human factors often confronted deep uncertainty highlights transdisciplinary science, policymakers, stakeholders vulnerability.
Language: Английский
Citations
94
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6(1), P. 35 - 50
Published: Jan. 9, 2025
Language: Английский
Citations
17
Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 61(1)
Published: Jan. 1, 2025
Abstract Snow drought, characterized by an anomalous reduction in snowpack, exerts profound hydrological and socioeconomic impacts cold regions. Despite its significance, the influence of diverse snow drought types, including warm, dry, warm‐and‐dry variants, on streamflow remains inadequately understood. Here we present first hemispheric‐scale, observation‐based assessment patterns seasonal annual ( Q ) across 3049 northern catchments over 1950–2020. Our findings reveal that with a lower mean snowfall fraction () exhibit heightened prevalence severity warm droughts, whereas high‐ experience more prevalent but less severe dry drought. This disparity arises from distinct sensitivities snowpack to cold‐season precipitation temperature. In addition, droughts induce during both seasons, culminating significant decrease . Conversely, increases decreases , attributable trade‐off between increased c decreased warm‐season w ). With ongoing climate warming, continued is anticipated, which expected further increase frequency warm‐dry droughts. These circumstances, particularly impactful under low conditions, are poised formidable challenges for water resources management regions globally.
Language: Английский
Citations
2