Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Habitat Suitability of the Dominant Tree Species in Greece DOI Creative Commons
Nikolaos M. Fyllas, Theano Koufaki, Christodoulos I. Sazeides

и другие.

Plants, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 11(12), С. 1616 - 1616

Опубликована: Июнь 20, 2022

Climate change is affecting species distribution and ecosystem form function. Forests provide a range of services, understanding their vulnerability to climate important for designing effective adaptation strategies. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) has been extensively used derive habitat suitability maps under current conditions project shifts change. In this study, we model the future dominant tree in Greece (Abies cephalonica, Abies borisii-regis, Pinus brutia, halepensis, nigra, Quercus ilex, pubescens, frainetto Fagus sylvatica), based on species-specific presence data from EU-Forest database, enhanced with that currently under-represented terms occurrence points. By including these additional data, areas relatively drier some study were included SDM development, yielding potentially lower conditions. SDMs developed each taxon using soil at resolution ~1 km2. Model performance was assessed found adequately simulate potential distributions. Subsequently, models SSP1-2.6 SSP5-8.5 scenarios 2041-2070 2071-2100 time periods. Under scenarios, reduction habitat-suitable predicted most species, higher elevation taxa experiencing more pronounced shrinkages. An exception endemic A. cephalonica its sister which, although mid high elevations, seem able maintain scenarios. Our findings suggest could significantly affect dynamics forest ecosystems Greece, ecological, economic social implications, thus adequate mitigation measures should be implemented.

Язык: Английский

Environmental effects of ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2017 DOI
Alkiviadis Bais, Robyn Lucas, Janet F. Bornman

и другие.

Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 17(2), С. 127 - 179

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2018

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

313
Evolutionary genomics can improve prediction of species’ responses to climate change DOI Creative Commons
Ann‐Marie Waldvogel, Barbara Feldmeyer, Gregor Rolshausen

и другие.

Evolution Letters, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 4(1), С. 4 - 18

Опубликована: Янв. 14, 2020

Abstract Global climate change (GCC) increasingly threatens biodiversity through the loss of species, and transformation entire ecosystems. Many species are challenged by pace GCC because they might not be able to respond fast enough changing biotic abiotic conditions. Species can either shifting their range, or persisting in local habitat. If populations persist, tolerate climatic changes phenotypic plasticity, genetically adapt conditions depending on genetic variability census population size allow for de novo mutations. Otherwise, will experience demographic collapses may go extinct. Current approaches predicting responses begin combine ecological evolutionary information distribution modelling. Including an dimension substantially improve projections which have accounted key processes such as dispersal, adaptive change, demography, interactions. However, eco-evolutionary models require new data methods estimation a species' potential, so far only been available small number model species. To represent global biodiversity, we need devise large-scale collection strategies define ecology potential broad range especially keystone We also standardized replicable modelling that integrate these account when impact survival. Here, discuss different genomic used investigate predict GCC. This serve guidance researchers looking appropriate experimental setup particular system. furthermore highlight future directions moving forward field allocating resources more effectively, implement mitigation measures before extinct ecosystems lose important functions.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

274
Genomic Prediction of (Mal)Adaptation Across Current and Future Climatic Landscapes DOI Creative Commons
Thibaut Capblancq, Matthew C. Fitzpatrick, Rachael A. Bay

и другие.

Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 51(1), С. 245 - 269

Опубликована: Авг. 10, 2020

Signals of local adaptation have been found in many plants and animals, highlighting the heterogeneity distribution adaptive genetic variation throughout species ranges. In coming decades, global climate change is expected to induce shifts selective pressures that shape this variation. These changes will likely result varying degrees maladaptation spatial reshuffling underlying distributions alleles. There a growing interest using population genomic data help predict future disruptions locally gene-environment associations. One motivation behind such work better understand how effects changing on populations’ short-term fitness could vary spatially across Here we review current use disruption climates. After assessing goals motivationsunderlying approach, main steps associated statistical methods currently explore our understanding limits potential genomics (mal)adaptation.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

271
Assessing the reliability of species distribution projections in climate change research DOI
Luca Santini, Ana Benítez‐López, Luigi Maiorano

и другие.

Diversity and Distributions, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 27(6), С. 1035 - 1050

Опубликована: Фев. 19, 2021

Abstract Aim Forecasting changes in species distribution under future scenarios is one of the most prolific areas application for models (SDMs). However, no consensus yet exists on reliability such drawing conclusions species’ response to changing climate. In this study, we provide an overview common modelling practices field and assess model predictions using a virtual approach. Location Global. Methods We first review papers published between 2015 2019. Then, use approach three commonly applied SDM algorithms (GLM, MaxEnt random forest) estimated actual predictive performance parameterized with different settings violations assumptions. Results Most relied single (65%) small samples ( N < 50, 62%), used presence‐only data (85%), binarized models' output (74%) split‐sample validation (94%). Our simulation reveals that tends be over‐optimistic compared real performance, whereas spatial block provides more honest estimate, except when datasets are environmentally biased. The binarization predicted probabilities presence reduces models’ ability considerably. Sample size main predictors accuracy, but has little influence accuracy. Finally, inclusion ecologically irrelevant violation assumptions increases accuracy decreases projections, leading biased estimates range contraction expansion. Main predict low average, particularly binarized. A robust by spatially independent required, does not rule out inflation assumption violation. findings call caution interpretation projections climates.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

197
Open Science principles for accelerating trait-based science across the Tree of Life DOI Creative Commons
Rachael V. Gallagher, Daniel S. Falster, Brian Maitner

и другие.

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 4(3), С. 294 - 303

Опубликована: Фев. 17, 2020

Synthesizing trait observations and knowledge across the Tree of Life remains a grand challenge for biodiversity science. Species traits are widely used in ecological evolutionary science, new data methods have proliferated rapidly. Yet accessing integrating disparate sources considerable challenge, slowing progress toward global synthesis to integrate organisms. Trait science needs vision achieving integration all Here, we outline how adoption key Open Science principles—open data, open source methods—is transforming increasing transparency, democratizing access accelerating synthesis. To enhance widespread these principles, introduce Traits Network (OTN), global, decentralized community welcoming researchers institutions pursuing collaborative goal standardizing We demonstrate adherence principles is OTN five activities that can accelerate Life, thereby facilitating rapid advances address scientific inquiries environmental issues. Lessons learned along path will provide framework addressing similarly complex informatics challenges. A introduced aims standardize species organismal groups, based on Science.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

192
Species distribution modelling to support forest management. A literature review DOI

Matteo Pecchi,

Maurizio Marchi, Vanessa Burton

и другие.

Ecological Modelling, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 411, С. 108817 - 108817

Опубликована: Сен. 16, 2019

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

185
Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2020 DOI Creative Commons
Rachel Ε. Neale, Paul W. Barnes, T. Matthew Robson

и другие.

Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 20(1), С. 1 - 67

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2021

Abstract This assessment by the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) of United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) provides latest scientific update since our most recent comprehensive (Photochemical and Photobiological Sciences, 2019, 18, 595–828). The interactive effects between stratospheric ozone layer, solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, climate change are presented within framework Montreal Protocol Sustainable Development Goals. We address how these global environmental changes affect atmosphere air quality; human health; terrestrial aquatic ecosystems; biogeochemical cycles; materials used in outdoor construction, energy technologies, fabrics. In many cases, there is a growing influence from seasonality extreme events due to change. Additionally, we assess transmission severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which responsible for COVID-19 pandemic, context linkages with UV radiation Protocol.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

176
The evolutionary genomics of species’ responses to climate change DOI
Jonás A. Aguirre‐Liguori, Santiago Ramírez‐Barahona, Brandon S. Gaut

и другие.

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 5(10), С. 1350 - 1360

Опубликована: Авг. 9, 2021

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

139
Characterization, costs, cues and future perspectives of phenotypic plasticity DOI Creative Commons
Hannah Schneider

Annals of Botany, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 130(2), С. 131 - 148

Опубликована: Июнь 30, 2022

Abstract Background Plastic responses of plants to the environment are ubiquitous. Phenotypic plasticity occurs in many forms and at biological scales, its adaptive value depends on specific interactions with other plant traits organisms. Even though is norm rather than exception, complex nature has been a challenge characterizing expression plasticity, for fitness environmental cues that regulate expression. Scope This review discusses characterization costs approaches, considerations, promising research directions studying plasticity. genetically controlled heritable; however, little known about how organisms perceive, interpret respond cues, genes pathways associated Not every genotype plastic trait, not infinite, suggesting trade-offs, limits The timing, specificity duration critical their fitness. Conclusions There opportunities advance our understanding phenotypic New methodology technological breakthroughs enable study across scales multiple environments. Understanding mechanisms phenotypes influences ranges would benefit areas science ranging from basic applied breeding crop improvement.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

78
Space‐for‐time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution DOI Creative Commons
Rebecca S. L. Lovell, Sinéad Collins, Simon H. Martin

и другие.

Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 98(6), С. 2243 - 2270

Опубликована: Авг. 9, 2023

ABSTRACT In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long‐term biological data use the past anticipate future, spatial climate–biotic relationships are often used as proxy for biotic responses change over time. These ‘space‐for‐time substitutions’ (SFTS) become near ubiquitous in global biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods isolation. We review climate‐focussed SFTS four ecology evolution, each focussed on type variable – population phenotypes, genotypes, species' distributions, ecological communities. then examine similarities differences between terms methods, limitations opportunities. While wide range applications, two main approaches applied across subfields: situ gradient transplant experiments. find that share common relating ( i ) causality identified ii transferability these relationships, i.e. whether observed space equivalent those occurring Moreover, despite widespread application research, key assumptions remain untested. highlight opportunities enhance robustness by addressing limitations, particular emphasis where could be shared subfields.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

76