Population development as a driver of coastal risk: Current trends and future pathways

Cambridge Prisms Coastal Futures, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 1

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023

Abstract Coastal areas are subject to hazards that can result in severe impacts due the high concentration of people and assets exposed locations. While climate-induced sea-level rise will exacerbate these course 21st century, future dynamics socioeconomic development play an important role driving – as well adaptation responses particular countries with rapid population growth low-lying coastal areas. Here, we synthesize current state knowledge related locations underlying trends affecting at continental global scales. Currently, 2.15 billion live near-coastal zone 898 million low-elevation globally. These numbers could increase 2.9 1.2 billion, respectively, depending on scenario (i.e., Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP]) considered. Nevertheless, although indicate a exposure hazards, they bear limited information about actual do not include vulnerability population. Based insights, stress need account for risk assessments, including vulnerability, additionally exploring potential feedbacks migration decisions. Last, propose action points work inform long-term planning managing risks.

Язык: Английский

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Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 12(1)

Опубликована: Июнь 23, 2022

Abstract Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility societal on scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming scenarios, for four settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that be substantially beneficial to continued habitability most settlements over this century, at least until RCP8.5 median is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide limits course indicating situations where even ambitious cannot sufficiently offset failure effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions.

Язык: Английский

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Point of Departure and Key Concepts

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Год журнала: 2023, Номер unknown, С. 121 - 196

Опубликована: Июнь 22, 2023

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Язык: Английский

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Poverty, Livelihoods and Sustainable Development

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Год журнала: 2023, Номер unknown, С. 1171 - 1284

Опубликована: Июнь 22, 2023

A summary is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to content, full PDF via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

Язык: Английский

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A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Ноя. 29, 2023

Most studies projecting human survivability limits to extreme heat with climate change use a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature (Tw) threshold without integrating variations in physiology. This study applies physiological and biophysical principles for young older adults, sun or shade, improve current estimates of introduce liveability (maximum safe, sustained activity) under future climates. Our physiology-based survival show vast underestimation risks by the Tw model hot-dry conditions. Updated correspond Tw~25.8-34.1 (young) ~21.9-33.7 (old)-0.9-13.1 lower than = °C. For female are ~7.2-13.1 dry Liveability declines exposure humidity, yet most dramatically age (2.5-3.0 METs adults). Reductions safe activity younger adults between present indicate stronger impact from aging warming.

Язык: Английский

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Climate migration amplifies demographic change and population aging

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 121(3)

Опубликована: Янв. 8, 2024

The warnings of potential climate migration first appeared in the scientific literature late 1970s when increased recognition that disintegrating ice sheets could drive people to migrate from coastal cities. Since time, scientists have modeled without integrating other population processes, potentially obscuring demographic amplification this migration. Climate amplify change—enhancing destinations and suppressing origins. Additionally, older populations are least likely migrate, accelerate aging origin areas. Here, we investigate under sea-level rise (SLR), a single climatic hazard, examine both effect by combining matrix models, flood hazard model built on 40 y environmental United States project US distribution counties. We find SLR for all feasible Representative Concentration Pathway-Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP–SSP) scenarios 2100 ranges between 8.6–28 M [5.7–53 M]—5.3 18 times number migrants (0.4–10 M). also significant areas as youthful but remain, accelerating As percentage lost due increases, median age increases—up 10+ some highly impacted our projection approach can be easily adapted additional or multiple hazards.

Язык: Английский

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Migration Theory in Climate Mobility Research

Frontiers in Climate, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 4

Опубликована: Май 10, 2022

The purpose of this article is to explore how migration theory invoked in empirical studies climate-related migration, and provide suggestions for engagement with the emerging field climate mobility. Theory critical understanding processes we observe social-ecological systems because it points a specific locus attention research, shapes research questions, guides quantitative model development, influences what researchers find, ultimately informs policies programs. Research into mobility has grown out early on environmental often developed isolation from broader theoretical developments community. As such, there risk that work may be inadequately informed by rich corpus contributed our who migrates; why they migrate; types employ; sustains streams; choose certain destinations over others. On other hand, are ways which environment enriching conceptual frameworks being employed understand particularly forced migration. This paper draws review 75 modeling efforts conducted diversity disciplines, covering various regions, using variety data sources methods assess used their research. goal suggest forward large growing domain.

Язык: Английский

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Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration

Journal of the European Economic Association, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 20(3), С. 1145 - 1197

Опубликована: Дек. 13, 2021

Abstract This paper investigates the long-term implications of climate change on global migration and inequality. Accounting for effects changing temperatures, sea levels, frequency intensity natural disasters, we model impact productivity utility in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. By endogenizing people’s decisions across millions $5 \times 5$ km spatial cells, our approach sheds light magnitude dyadic, education-specific structure human induced by warming. We find that strongly intensifies inequality poverty, reinforces urbanization, boosts from low- to high-latitude areas. Median projections suggest will induce voluntary forced permanent relocation 62 million working-age individuals over course 21st century. Overall, under current international laws policies, only small fraction people suffering negative manages move beyond their homelands. conclude it is unlikely shocks massive flows migrants, except combined extremely pessimistic scenarios highly permissive policies. In contrast, poverty resulting real threat all us.

Язык: Английский

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The existential risk space of climate change

Climatic Change, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 174(1-2)

Опубликована: Сен. 1, 2022

Climate change is widely recognized as a major risk to societies and natural ecosystems but the high end of risk, i.e., where risks become existential, poorly framed, defined, analyzed in scientific literature. This gap at odds with fundamental relevance existential for humanity, it also limits ability communities engage emerging debates narratives about dimension climate that have recently gained considerable traction. paper intends address this by scoping defining related change. We first review context change, drawing on research fields global catastrophic risks, key so-called Reasons Concern reports Intergovernmental Panel Change. consider how are framed civil society movement well what can be learned respect from COVID-19 crisis. To better frame we propose define them those threaten existence subject, subject an individual person, community, or nation state humanity. The threat their defined two levels severity: conditions (1) survival (2) basic human needs. A third level, well-being, commonly not part space risks. Our definition covers range different scales, which leads us into further six analytical dimensions: physical social processes involved, systems affected, magnitude, spatial scale, timing, probability occurrence. In conclusion, suggest clearer more precise framing such offer here facilitates analysis societal political discourse action.

Язык: Английский

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The limits of migration as adaptation. A conceptual approach towards the role of immobility, disconnectedness and simultaneous exposure in translocal livelihoods systems

Climate and Development, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 16(2), С. 87 - 96

Опубликована: Март 1, 2023

Migration can strengthen adaptation to climate change. The potential of migration-as-adaptation builds on a world intensifying global mobility and connectedness the increasing possibility geographically spreading risks. But what if is impeded connectivity disrupted? And happens distant places face risks simultaneously due systemic character or multiplicity crises? This paper points fundamental gaps in research migration-as-adaptation, which largely neglects questions limits. It argues that an understanding limits needs address (1) migration as inherent feature social systems under stress, (2) unequal contested nature goals, (3) immobility, disconnectedness simultaneous exposure core mechanisms limit adaptive migration. proposes novel translocal-mobilities perspective multi-scalar, multi-local, relational intersectional dynamics migration-as-adaptation. formulates for adaptation. A comprehensive will help scientific community build more realistic scenarios change provide entry policies avoid reaching mitigate negative consequences.

Язык: Английский

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