Three hypotheses on changing river flood hazards DOI Creative Commons
Günter Blöschl

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 26(19), P. 5015 - 5033

Published: Oct. 11, 2022

Abstract. There is serious concern that the hazard, or probability, of river floods increasing over time. Starting from narratives are sometimes discussed in public, article addresses three hypotheses. The first suggests land-use changes, such as deforestation, urbanisation and soil compaction by agriculture, increase flood hazards. This review finds effects on particularly pronounced small catchments since permeability plays an important role infiltration at this scale. For regional floods, most extreme events, land use usually not control, areas saturation play a greater runoff generation, which less dependent permeability. second hypothesis hydraulic interventions structures, training, levees dams, structures have greatest impact events medium magnitude, associated with return periods tens to hundreds years, their local. Long-term interactions between humans must be taken into account when predicting future third climate change increases hazard. that, few hectares, hazards may due convective storms. In large catchments, where occur, changes necessarily directly related precipitation, nor they rising air temperatures, but determined seasonal interplay moisture, snow precipitation via generation. Increases decreases been observed worldwide. It concluded significant progress has made recent years understanding use, changing crucial consider all factors risk management communicate them general public nuanced way.

Language: Английский

Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods DOI
Günter Blöschl, Julia Hall, Alberto Viglione

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 573(7772), P. 108 - 111

Published: Aug. 28, 2019

Language: Английский

Citations

1060

Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) – a community perspective DOI Creative Commons
Günter Blöschl, Marc F. P. Bierkens, António Chambel

et al.

Hydrological Sciences Journal, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 64(10), P. 1141 - 1158

Published: June 10, 2019

This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by need for stronger harmonisation research efforts. The procedure involved public consultation through online media, followed two workshops which large number potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite diversity participants (230 scientists total), process revealed much about priorities state our science: preference continuity rather than radical departures or redirections from past current work. Questions remain focused on process-based understanding hydrological variability causality at all space time scales. Increased attention environmental change drives new emphasis how propagates across interfaces within system disciplinary boundaries. particular, expansion human footprint raises set related interactions with nature water cycle feedbacks context complex management problems. We hope that this reflection synthesis 23 will help guide efforts some years come.

Language: Английский

Citations

913

Causes, impacts and patterns of disastrous river floods DOI
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Sergiy Vorogushyn

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(9), P. 592 - 609

Published: Aug. 10, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

430

Historical increase in agricultural machinery weights enhanced soil stress levels and adversely affected soil functioning DOI Creative Commons
Thomas Keller, Maria Sandin, Tino Colombi

et al.

Soil and Tillage Research, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 194, P. 104293 - 104293

Published: June 21, 2019

Soil compaction caused by vehicular traffic adversely affects key soil functions and ecosystem services that soils provide. Although is a well-recognized problem, it remains challenging to quantify the economic ecological costs of compaction. The mechanization in agriculture has resulted steady increase weight farm vehicles. It reasonable assume this exacerbated compaction, but there little quantitative knowledge on development levels arable soils. To these trends, we use historical records harvester tractor weights simulate how changed stresses bulk density soil, predict impacts mechanical resistance for root growth hydraulic properties. Our simulations show clear stress with higher penetration resistance, decrease conductivity agreement available data. We increased decreased elongation rates consequently prolonged time required roots reach certain depth. changes associated limitations coincide stagnation crop yields 1990s observed cereals many countries. calculations illustrate drastically saturated water storage capacity subsoils. speculate contributed incidence severity flood events during recent decades Europe. Finally, take Sweden as an example estimate annual due agricultural productivity loss flooding damage several hundred M€ yr−1 Sweden. Considering continuation upwards trends average machinery projected extreme weather events, are likely escalate. study highlights have exceeded acceptable loads, future operations must consider inherent limit soil.

Language: Английский

Citations

362

Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500 years DOI
Günter Blöschl, Andrea Kiss, Alberto Viglione

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 583(7817), P. 560 - 566

Published: July 22, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

277

Soil hydrology in the Earth system DOI
Harry Vereecken, Wulf Amelung, Sara L. Bauke

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(9), P. 573 - 587

Published: Aug. 2, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

206

Does soil compaction increase floods? A review DOI
Abdallah Alaoui, Magdalena Rogger, Stephan Peth

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 557, P. 631 - 642

Published: Dec. 26, 2017

Language: Английский

Citations

204

Effects of dynamic land use/land cover change on water resources and sediment yield in the Anzali wetland catchment, Gilan, Iran DOI

Helen Aghsaei,

Naghmeh Mobarghaee Dinan, Ali Moridi

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 712, P. 136449 - 136449

Published: Jan. 7, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

203

Flood risk assessment in the Kosi megafan using multi-criteria decision analysis: A hydro-geomorphic approach DOI
Kanchan Mishra, Rajiv Sinha

Geomorphology, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 350, P. 106861 - 106861

Published: Sept. 12, 2019

Language: Английский

Citations

186

How Do Climate and Catchment Attributes Influence Flood Generating Processes? A Large‐Sample Study for 671 Catchments Across the Contiguous USA DOI Creative Commons
Lina Stein, Martyn Clark, Wouter Knoben

et al.

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 57(4)

Published: Feb. 10, 2021

Abstract Hydrometeorological flood generating processes (excess rain, short long snowmelt, and rain‐on‐snow) underpin our understanding of behavior. Knowledge about improves hydrological models, frequency analysis, estimation climate change impact on floods, etc. Yet, not much is known how catchment attributes influence the spatial distribution processes. This study aims to offer a comprehensive structured approach close this knowledge gap. We employ large sample (671 catchments across contiguous United States) evaluate use two complementary approaches: A statistics‐based which compares attribute distributions different processes; random forest model in combination with an interpretable machine learning (accumulated local effects [ALE]). The ALE method has been used often hydrology, it overcomes significant obstacle many statistical methods, confounding effect correlated attributes. As expected, we find (fraction snow, aridity, precipitation seasonality, mean precipitation) be most influential process distribution. However, varies both type. also can predicted for ungauged relatively high accuracy ( R 2 between 0.45 0.9). implication these findings should considered future studies, as changes characteristics

Language: Английский

Citations

125