Engineering Geology,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
301, P. 106586 - 106586
Published: March 9, 2022
Hydro-morphological
processes
(HMP;
any
process
in
the
spectrum
between
debris
flows
and
flash
floods)
threaten
human
lives
infrastructure;
their
effects
are
only
expected
to
worsen
under
influence
of
climate
change.
Limiting
potential
damage
HMPs
by
taking
preventive
or
remedial
actions
requires
probabilistic
expectation
where
how
frequently
these
may
occur.
The
information
on
a
given
earth
surface
manifest
can
be
expressed
via
susceptibility
modeling.
For
whole
Chinese
territory,
model
for
HMP
is
currently
not
available.
To
address
this
issue,
we
propose
yearly
space-time
built
basis
binomial
Generalized
Linear
Model.
target
variable
such
annual
presences/absences
per
catchment
across
China,
from
1985
2015.
This
has
been
accessed
catalogue
HMP,
data
repository
Government
activated
1950
which
still
use.
binary
spatio-temporal
regressed
against
set
time-invariant
(catchment
shape
indices
geomorphic
attributes)
time-variant
(urban
coverage,
rainfall,
vegetation
density
land
use)
covariates.
Furthermore,
include
regression
constant
each
31
years
consideration
also
three-years
aggregated
previously
occurred
(and
not-occurred)
HMP.
We
consider
two
versions
our
modeling
approach,
an
explanatory
benchmark
fit
data,
including
multiple
intercept
year.
extend
into
predictive
one,
considering
four
temporal
cross-validation
schemes.
As
result,
portrayed
models
30
maps,
south-east
China
shown
exhibit
largest
variation
probability
occurrence.
Also,
compressed
prediction
three
summary
maps.
These
report
mean,
maximum
95%
confidence
interval
distribution
catchment,
present
dual
value.
On
one
hand,
provide
platform
interpret
environmental
controlling
occurrence
over
very
large
spatial
(the
country)
(31
records)
domain.
other
catchments
more
prone
experience
HMP-driven
hazard.
Hence,
step
further
would
select
most
susceptible
detailed
analysis
physically-based
could
tested
estimate
potentially
impacted
areas.
transparency,
results
generated
work
shared
supplementary
material
as
GIS
(geopackage)
files.
Abstract
Predictions
of
floods,
droughts,
and
fast
drought‐flood
transitions
are
required
at
different
time
scales
to
develop
management
strategies
targeted
minimizing
negative
societal
economic
impacts.
Forecasts
daily
seasonal
scale
vital
for
early
warning,
estimation
event
frequency
hydraulic
design,
long‐term
projections
developing
adaptation
future
conditions.
All
three
types
predictions—forecasts,
estimates,
projections—typically
treat
droughts
floods
independently,
even
though
both
extremes
can
be
studied
using
related
approaches
have
similar
challenges.
In
this
review,
we
(a)
identify
challenges
common
drought
flood
prediction
their
joint
assessment
(b)
discuss
tractable
tackle
these
We
group
into
four
interrelated
categories:
data,
process
understanding,
modeling
prediction,
human–water
interactions.
Data‐related
include
data
availability
definition.
Process‐related
the
multivariate
spatial
characteristics
extremes,
non‐stationarities,
changes
in
extremes.
Modeling
arise
analysis,
stochastic,
hydrological,
earth
system,
modeling.
Challenges
with
respect
interactions
lie
establishing
links
impacts,
representing
interactions,
science
communication.
potential
ways
tackling
including
exploiting
new
sources,
studying
a
framework,
influences
compounding
drivers,
continuous
stochastic
models
or
non‐stationary
models,
obtaining
stakeholder
feedback.
Tackling
one
several
will
improve
predictions
help
minimize
impacts
extreme
events.
This
article
is
categorized
under:
Science
Water
>
Hydrology and earth system sciences,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
25(7), P. 3897 - 3935
Published: July 7, 2021
Abstract.
Hydroclimatic
extremes
such
as
intense
rainfall,
floods,
droughts,
heatwaves,
and
wind
or
storms
have
devastating
effects
each
year.
One
of
the
key
challenges
for
society
is
understanding
how
these
are
evolving
likely
to
unfold
beyond
their
historical
distributions
under
influence
multiple
drivers
changes
in
climate,
land
cover,
other
human
factors.
Methods
analysing
hydroclimatic
advanced
considerably
recent
decades.
Here
we
provide
a
review
drivers,
metrics,
methods
detection,
attribution,
management,
projection
nonstationary
extremes.
We
discuss
issues
uncertainty
associated
with
approaches
(e.g.
arising
from
insufficient
record
length,
spurious
nonstationarities,
incomplete
representation
sources
modelling
frameworks),
examine
empirical
simulation-based
frameworks
analysis
extremes,
identify
gaps
future
research.
Precipitation
extremes
will
increase
in
a
warming
climate,
but
the
response
of
flood
magnitudes
to
heavier
precipitation
events
is
less
clear.
Historically,
there
little
evidence
for
systematic
increases
magnitude
despite
observed
extremes.
Here
we
investigate
how
change
warming,
using
large
initial-condition
ensemble
simulations
with
single
climate
model,
coupled
hydrological
model.
The
model
chain
was
applied
historical
(1961–2000)
and
warmer
future
(2060–2099)
conditions
78
watersheds
Bavaria,
region
comprising
headwater
catchments
Inn,
Danube
Main
River,
thus
representing
an
area
expressed
heterogeneity.
For
majority
catchments,
identify
‘return
interval
threshold’
relationship
between
increases:
at
return
intervals
above
this
threshold,
further
extreme
frequency
clearly
yield
increased
magnitudes;
below
modulated
by
land
surface
processes.
We
suggest
that
threshold
behaviour
can
reconcile
climatological
perspectives
on
changing
risk
climate.
Germany
rainfall
processes
not
above,
Abstract
Anomalies
in
the
frequency
of
river
floods,
i.e.,
flood-rich
or
-poor
periods,
cause
biases
flood
risk
estimates
and
thus
make
climate
adaptation
measures
less
efficient.
While
observations
have
recently
confirmed
presence
anomalies
Europe,
their
exact
causes
are
not
clear.
Here
we
analyse
streamflow
during
1960-2010
to
show
that
shifts
generation
processes
contribute
more
occurrence
regional
than
changes
extreme
rainfall.
A
shift
from
rain
on
dry
soil
wet
events
by
5%
increased
periods
Atlantic
region,
an
opposite
Mediterranean
region
flood-poor
but
will
likely
singular
floods
occur
often.
Flood
driven
changing
Europe
may
further
intensify
a
warming
should
be
considered
estimation
management.
