Marine Heatwaves

Annual Review of Marine Science, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 13(1), P. 313 - 342

Published: Sept. 25, 2020

Ocean temperature variability is a fundamental component of the Earth's climate system, and extremes in this affect health marine ecosystems around world. The study heatwaves has emerged as rapidly growing field research, given notable extreme warm-water events that have occurred against background trend global ocean warming. This review summarizes latest physical statistical understanding based on how they are identified, defined, characterized, monitored through remotely sensed situ data sets. We describe mechanisms cause heatwaves, along with their distribution, variability, trends. Finally, we discuss current issues developing research area, including considerations related to thechoice climatological baseline periods defining communicate findings context societal needs.

Language: Английский

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Nonlinear El Niño impacts on the global economy under climate change

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Sept. 21, 2023

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a consequential climate phenomenon affecting global extreme weather events often with largescale socioeconomic impacts. To what extent the impact affects macroeconomy, how long lasts, and may change in warming are important questions for field. Using smooth nonlinear climate-economy model fitted historical data, here we find damaging from an Niño which increases further three years after initial shock, amounting to multi-trillion US dollars economic loss; attribute loss of US$2.1 T US$3.9 globally 1997-98 2015-16 events, far greater than that based on tangible losses. We impacts La Niña asymmetric weaker, estimate gain only US$0.06 1998-99 event. Under change, grows exponentially increased ENSO variability. high-emission scenario, variability causes additional median US$33 economy at 3% discount rate aggregated over remainder 21st century. Thus, exacerbated damage changing should be considered assessments mitigation strategies.

Language: Английский

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Impacts of marine heatwaves on tropical western and central Pacific Island nations and their communities

Global and Planetary Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 208, P. 103680 - 103680

Published: Oct. 22, 2021

Marine heatwaves can have devastating impacts on marine species and habitats, often with flow-on effects to human communities livelihoods. This is of particular importance Pacific Island countries that rely heavily coastal ocean resources, for which projected increases in future heatwave (MHW) frequency, intensity, duration could be detrimental across the region. In this study, we investigate MHWs tropical western central Ocean region, focusing observed MHWs, their associated impacts, projections using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations under a low (SSP1–2.6) high (SSP5–8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Documented from "Moderate" mean intensity MHW events Fiji, Samoa, Palau, were categorised as "Strong" at peak, included fish invertebrate mortality coral bleaching. Based CMIP6 multi-model estimates, relative current baselines, are increase recent historical (1995–2014) values 10–50 days per year (dpy) region equivalent >100 dpy by 2050 scenario, > 200 nearer equator. Under Moderate intensities most 2050, >300 For intense "Extreme" category MHW, estimates range <1 climate >50 scenario 2050. contrast, <5 highlighting nations global more closely follow trajectory.

Language: Английский

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A catalogue of marine heatwave metrics and trends for the Australian region

Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 71(3), P. 284 - 302

Published: Dec. 14, 2021

Marine heatwaves around Australia, and globally, have been increasing in their frequency, intensity, duration. This study reviews catalogues marine heatwave metrics trends Australia since 1982, from near the beginning of satellite sea-surface temperature observing period. The years which longest strongest occurred are also recorded. In addition, we analyse selected case regions, provide a short review associated impacts. These regions include: off Western Australian coast, Torres Strait, Great Barrier Reef, Tasman Sea, South Basin. Finally, brief progress understanding potential predictability sea surface changes Australia.

Language: Английский

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Column‐Compound Extremes in the Global Ocean

AGU Advances, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(3)

Published: May 23, 2024

Abstract Marine extreme events such as marine heatwaves, ocean acidity extremes and low oxygen can pose a substantial threat to organisms ecosystems. Such might be particularly detrimental (a) when they are compounded in more than one stressor, (b) the extend substantially across water column, restricting habitable space for organisms. Here, we use daily output of hindcast simulation (1961–2020) from component Community Earth System Model characterize column‐compound (CCX), employing relative threshold approach identify requiring them vertically over at least 50 m. The diagnosed CCX prevalent, occupying worldwide 1960s about 1% volume contained within top 300 Over duration our simulation, become intense, last longer, occupy volume, driven by trends warming acidification. For example, triple expanded 39‐fold, now 3‐times became 6‐times intense since early 1960s. Removing this effect with moving baseline permits us better understand key characteristics CCX, revealing typical 10–30 days predominant occurrence Tropics high latitudes, regions potential biological vulnerability. Overall, fall into 16 clusters, reflecting different patterns drivers. Triple largely confined tropics North Pacific tend associated El Niño‐Southern Oscillation.

Language: Английский

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Temporal Stability of Seagrass Extent, Leaf Area, and Carbon Storage in St. Joseph Bay, Florida: a Semi-automated Remote Sensing Analysis

Estuaries and Coasts, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 45(7), P. 2082 - 2101

Published: March 15, 2022

Seagrasses are globally recognized for their contribution to blue carbon sequestration. However, accurate quantification of storage capacity remains uncertain due, in part, an incomplete inventory global seagrass extent and assessment its temporal variability. Furthermore, seagrasses undergoing significant decline globally, which highlights the urgent need develop change detection techniques applicable both scale loss spatial complexity coastal environments. This study applied a deep learning algorithmto 30-year time series Landsat 5 through 8 imagery quantify extent, leaf area index (LAI), belowground organic (BGC) St. Joseph Bay, Florida, between 1990 2020. Consistent with previous field-based observations regarding stability throughout there was no trend (23 ± 3 km2, τ = 0.09, p 0.59, n 31), LAI (1.6 0.2, -0.13, 0.42, or BGC (165 19 g C m-2, - 0.01, 0.1, 31) over period. There were, however, six brief declines years 2004 2019 following tropical cyclones, from recovered rapidly. Fine-scale interannual variability LAI, unrelated sea surface temperature climate associated El Niño-Southern Oscillation North Atlantic Oscillation. Although our showed that were stable Bay 2020, forecasts suggest environmental pressures ongoing, importance method presented here as valuable tool decadal-scale dynamics. Perhaps more importantly, results can serve baseline against we monitor future communities carbon.

Language: Английский

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Global Trends in Marine Heatwaves and Cold Spells: The Impacts of Fixed Versus Changing Baselines

Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 127(10)

Published: Oct. 1, 2022

Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHW) and cold spells (MCS) are considered to be anomalously warm or cool events in sea surface temperature that commonly defined relative a long‐term fixed baseline. As result, because of climate warming, it is often concluded MHW will become stronger, longer, more frequent the future, whereas MCS weaker, shorter, less frequent. Here, argued order understand physics MHW/MCS, important remove signal when detecting events. The 1982–2021 National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration optimum interpolation data set (NOAA OISST V2) used show using baseline leads on average overestimating underestimating strengths between 1982 2021 compared linear trend signal. If signal, global trends over 40‐year record indicate shift weaker tropics, especially eastern Pacific Ocean, stronger northern Atlantic Oceans. tropics likely related El Niño conditions predominating during first half La Niña second record. at higher latitudes consistent with changes North Multidecadal Oscillations.

Language: Английский

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Where the winds clash: what is really triggering El Niño initiation?

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: Aug. 18, 2023

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth’s strongest source of year-to-year climate variability, whose center action, although being in tropical Pacific, influences global climate, impacting also security aspects. ENSO commonly described as an irregular oscillation coupled ocean-atmosphere system, which produces sea surface temperature between a warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phase induced by internal waves propagating along equatorial wave-guide generated convergence high-frequency westerlies quasi-stationary easterlies. Here we show that internal, downwelling Rossby Kelvin are regularly formed beneath Easterly/Westerly Wind Convergence Zone (EWCZ). When longitude EWCZ located east 175 o E, reach eastern Pacific boundary determine Niño event and, more elongates eastwards into central observed classified severe, suggesting position important factor to trigger Niño. Therefore, study zonal shifts deep atmospheric convection displace zonally with each other Southern Index, indicating clash Easterlies Westerlies determines state triggers initiation.

Language: Английский

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Assessment of the marine heatwaves prediction performance of the short-term climate prediction system FIO-CPS v2.0

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 100757 - 100757

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Seasonal Forecasting Skill of Sea‐Level Anomalies in a Multi‐Model Prediction Framework

Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 126(6)

Published: May 20, 2021

Coastal high water level events are increasing in frequency and severity as global sea-levels rise, exposing coastlines to risks of flooding. Yet, operational seasonal forecasts sea-level anomalies not made for most coastal regions. Advancements forecasting climate variability using coupled ocean-atmosphere models provide the opportunity predict likelihood future several months advance. However, skill these forecast has been fully assessed, especially a multi-model framework. Here, we construct 10-model ensemble retrospective with lead times up 11 months. We compare predicted sea levels from bias-corrected 20 years observations satellite-based altimetry shore-based tide gauges. Forecast skill, measured by anomaly correlation, tends be highest tropical subtropical open oceans, whereas is lower higher latitudes along some continental coasts. For locations, averaging produces that comparable or better than best performing individual model. find skillful predictions typically come systems more accurate initializations level, which generally achieved assimilating data. Having relatively horizontal resolution ocean also beneficial, such seem capture dynamical processes necessary successful forecasts. The assessment suggests possible many, though all, parts ocean.

Language: Английский

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