Identifying climatically-compatible seedlots for the eastern US: building the predictive tools and knowledge to enable forest assisted migration DOI Creative Commons
Bryce T. Adams, Alejandro A. Royo, Christel C. Kern

et al.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7

Published: Nov. 20, 2024

Introduction Global climate change and associated stressors threaten forest ecosystems due to the rapid pace of change, which could exceed natural migration rate some tree species. In response, there is growing interest research implement assisted (FAM). Here, we used a species-independent indicator based on analogy, according sigma (dis)similarity (σ d ) index, match planting sites across eastern US with (future) climatically-compatible seedlots (CCS). Methods We developed CCS for grid composed 1 × 1° latitude longitude. were future analogs ≤2σ analogy ensure representative change. located three time periods, 2030's, 2050's, 2090's emissions scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 database, using 12 variables. Results identified majority grids SSP3-7.0 scenario. Approximately 28% grid's projections included novelty. The average 222, 358, 662 km or 1, 2, 3 seed zones away grids, respectively. also further south-southwest (188–197°). addition, cover was approximately 2%, 5%, 10% less than that grids. Discussion Our development synthesis emphasized four key results: (i) distances 2030's 2050's similar seed-transfer guidelines species, but exceeded current recommendations; (ii) south-southwesterly locations aligned species habitat distribution dynamics; (iii) novelty potentially challenges conceptual basis FAM if are not adapted change; (iv) variation in among presents potential opportunities presence absence forestland source seed. Ultimately, our goal locate synthesize enable decision support.

Language: Английский

Varying growth response of Central European tree species to the extraordinary drought period of 2018 – 2020 DOI
Dominik Thom, Allan Buras, Michael Heym

et al.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 338, P. 109506 - 109506

Published: May 20, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

40
Adaptive forest management improves stand-level resilience of temperate forests under multiple stressors DOI
Arthur Guignabert, Mathieu Jonard, Christian Messier

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 948, P. 174168 - 174168

Published: June 26, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

9
Desired REgeneration through Assisted Migration (DREAM): Implementing a research framework for climate-adaptive silviculture DOI Open Access
Alejandro A. Royo, Patricia Raymond, Christel C. Kern

et al.

Forest Ecology and Management, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 546, P. 121298 - 121298

Published: Aug. 9, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

17
‘Mind the Gap’—reforestation needs vs. reforestation capacity in the western United States DOI Creative Commons
Solomon Z. Dobrowski,

Matthew M. Aghai,

Ariella Chichilnisky du

et al.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7

Published: May 29, 2024

Tree establishment following severe or stand-replacing disturbance is critical for achieving U.S. climate change mitigation goals and maintaining the co-benefits of intact forest ecosystems. In many contexts, natural post-fire tree regeneration sufficient to maintain cover associated ecosystem services, but increasingly pattern scale exceeds ecological thresholds active reforestation may be warranted. Our capacity plant trees, however, not keeping pace with needs. This shortfall uniquely apparent in western U.S., where wildfire size severity have increased recent decades long-term divestment supply chain has limited our ability respond existing Here we present an analysis key facets both demand side address six questions: (1) What current backlog potential needs driven by high-severity wildfire?; (2) How will increasing activity through end century affect needs?; (3) meet future (4) can demands?; (5) approaches promote resilience (6) Where are opportunities emerging from policy initiatives, innovative public-private partnerships, capital markets scaling reforestation? Between 1984 2000, annual planting met cumulatively over last two (2000 2021) it fallen short fire-driven estimated 1.5 million ha ( ca. 3.8 ac). We anticipate this gap increase 2 3 fold 2050. Scaling up efforts close require investment across all chain, novel that forests drought wildfire. highlight initiatives conservation finance expanding efforts.

Language: Английский

Citations

7
Assessing uncertainty in genomic offset forecasts from landscape genomic models (and implications for restoration and assisted migration) DOI Creative Commons
Susanne Lachmuth, Thibaut Capblancq, Stephen R. Keller

et al.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: June 19, 2023

Introduction Ecological genomic models are increasingly used to guide climate-conscious restoration and conservation practices in the light of accelerating environmental change. Genomic offsets that quantify disruption existing genotype–environment associations under change a promising model-based tool inform such measures. With recent advances, potential applications offset predictions include but not restricted to: (1) assessing situ climate risks, (2) mapping future habitat suitability while accounting for local adaptations, or (3) selecting donor populations recipient areas maximize diversity minimize maladaptation environments assisted migration planning. As any approach, it is crucial understand how arbitrary decisions made during modeling process affect induce uncertainty. Methods Here, we present sensitivity analysis various components influence forecasts offset-based metrics, using red spruce ( Picea rubens ), cool-temperate tree species endemic eastern North America, as case study. We assess effects marker set, climatic predictor scenario, “not-to-exceed” threshold evaluate uncertainty varies across space. Results Climate scenario induced by far largest our forecasts; however, choice set was also important regions Southern Central Appalachians high relevance efforts. While much effort often expended identifying candidate loci, found minor importance. The maximum limit transfers between locations programs has mostly affected magnitude rather than geographic variation predictions. Discussion Overall, model suggest risks entire distributional range strongly underscore help ameliorate these risks. In regard, well along US Canadian east coast seem best candidates both relocation.

Language: Английский

Citations

14
Mapping and assessment of ecosystem health in the Vilnius functional zone (Lithuania) DOI
Manob Das, Miguel Inácio, Arijit Das

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 912, P. 168891 - 168891

Published: Nov. 30, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

13
Field Note: Learning from Early Application of a Transition Forest Climate Adaptation Planting Strategy Incorporating Assisted Migration in Southern New England DOI Creative Commons

Christopher C. Riely,

R.A. MacMillan, Maria K. Janowiak

et al.

Journal of Forestry, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 28, 2025

Abstract This field note presents an early example of a forest climate adaptation tree planting project incorporating assisted migration in southern New England which is valuable providing lessons that can inform future work this region and elsewhere. effort notable for moving forward through the implementation monitoring stages during period when many similar projects encountered barriers. The located on watershed protection forestland owned by Providence Water Supply Board, public utility Rhode Island. Using suite tools developed Climate Change Response Framework, managers carried out “transition” strategy 2015, seeking to improve regeneration area near state’s main drinking water reservoir. Seedlings both native species projected be adapted conditions were planted adjacent areas had experienced oak failure. Half seedlings each within deer exclosure fence half unfenced area. Annual has allowed comparison survival growth subset trees at these two sites 10 growing seasons. Deer herbivory believed most significant factor contributing differences rates between fenced areas. Both non-native have been able survive protected from browse, while are inconclusive after nearly decade. informal experimental provides case study illustrating some opportunities challenges associated with implementing non-research, operational-scale setting.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Ecological classification can help with assisted plant migration in forestry, nature conservation, and landscape planning DOI Open Access
Antonín Kusbach, Petr Dujka, Jan Šebesta

et al.

Forest Ecology and Management, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 546, P. 121349 - 121349

Published: Aug. 30, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

10
New York State Climate Impacts Assessment Chapter 05: Ecosystems DOI Creative Commons
Sebastian Heß, Douglas A. Burns, F. Garrett Boudinot

et al.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Dec. 9, 2024

Abstract The people of New York have long benefited from the state's diversity ecosystems, which range coastal shorelines and wetlands to extensive forests mountaintop alpine habitat, lakes rivers greenspaces in heavily populated urban areas. These ecosystems provide key services such as food, water, forest products, flood prevention, carbon storage, climate moderation, recreational opportunities, other cultural services. This chapter examines how changes climatic conditions across state are affecting different types they provide, considers likely future impacts projected change. emphasizes change is increasing vulnerability existing stressors, habitat fragmentation invasive species, highlights opportunities for Yorkers adapt build resilience.

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Tree Planting for Climate Adaptation and Emerald Ash Borer in the Lake States, US: Motivations and State of the Practice DOI
Lucia A. Fitts, Rebecca Montgomery, Brian J. Palik

et al.

Journal of Forestry, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 26, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0