Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: Sept. 6, 2019

Abstract Achieving food security goals in West Africa will depend on the capacity of agricultural sector to feed rapidly growing population and moderate adverse impacts climate change. Indeed, a number studies anticipate reduction crop yield main staple crops region coming decades due global warming. Here, we found that production might have already been affected by change, with significant losses estimated historical past. We used large ensemble simulations derived from an atmospheric general circulation model two process-based models, SARRA-H CYGMA, evaluate effects change Africa. generated ensembles 100 yields sorghum millet corresponding conditions for each model. One is based realistic simulation actual climate, while other does not account human influences systems (that is, non-warming counterfactual condition). last simulated decade, 2000–2009, approximately 1 °C warmer accounting more frequent heat rainfall extremes. These altered led regional average reductions 10–20% 5–15% models. annual across 2000–2009 associated relative condition pre-industrial climate), accounted 2.33–4.02 billion USD 0.73–2.17 sorghum. The estimates presented here can be basis loss damage date useful estimating costs adaptation region.

Language: Английский

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Estimating and understanding crop yields with explainable deep learning in the Indian Wheat Belt

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 15(2), P. 024019 - 024019

Published: Jan. 7, 2020

Abstract Forecasting crop yields is becoming increasingly important under the current context in which food security needs to be ensured despite challenges brought by climate change, an expanding world population accompanied rising incomes, increasing soil erosion, and decreasing water resources. Temperature, radiation, availability other environmental conditions influence growth, development, final grain yield a complex nonlinear manner. Machine learning (ML) techniques, deep (DL) methods particular, can account for such relations between its covariates. However, they typically lack transparency interpretability, since way predictions are derived not directly evident. Yet, of forecasting, understanding underlying factors behind both predicted loss or gain great relevance. Here, we explore how benefit from increased predictive performance DL while maintaining ability interpret models achieve their results. To do so, applied neural network multivariate time series vegetation meteorological data estimate wheat Indian Wheat Belt. Then, visualized analyzed features drivers learned model with use regression activation maps. The outperformed tested (ridge random forest) facilitated interpretation variables processes that lead variability. were mostly related length growing season, temperature light during this time. For example, our results showed high 2012 associated low temperatures sunny period. proposed methodology used crops regions order facilitate application agriculture.

Language: Английский

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Food security

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 437 - 550

Published: Nov. 18, 2022

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Language: Английский

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Yield trends, variability and stagnation analysis of major crops in France over more than a century

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: Nov. 9, 2018

France is a major crop producer, with production share of approx. 20% within the European Union. Yet, discussion has recently started whether French yields are stagnating. While for wheat previous results unanimously pointing to recent stagnation, there contradictory evidence maize and few no other crops. Here we analyse data set more than 120,000 yield observations from 1900 2016 ten crops (barley, durum soft wheat, maize, oats, potatoes, rapeseed, sugar beet, sunflower wine) in 96 mainland départements (NUTS3 administrative division). We dissect evolution trends over time space, variation evaluate growth stalled years. Yields have, on average across crops, multiplied four-fold course 20th century. absolute variability increased, relative mean halved - have increased faster their variability. But stagnated since 1990's winter barley, wine at least 25% areas. Reaching potentials unlikely as cause stagnation. Maize, contrast, shows

Language: Английский

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Application of Gene Editing for Climate Change in Agriculture

Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 5

Published: Sept. 7, 2021

Climate change imposes a severe threat to agricultural systems, food security, and human nutrition. Meanwhile, efforts in crop livestock gene editing have been undertaken improve performance across range of traits. Many the targeted phenotypes include attributes that could be beneficial for climate adaptation. Here, we present examples emerging applications research initiatives are aimed at improvement crops response change, discuss technical limitations opportunities therein. While only few translated production thus far, numerous studies settings demonstrated potential potent address near future.

Language: Английский

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ATTRICI v1.1 – counterfactual climate for impact attribution

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 14(8), P. 5269 - 5284

Published: Aug. 20, 2021

Abstract. Attribution in its general definition aims to quantify drivers of change a system. According IPCC Working Group II (WGII) natural, human or managed system is attributed climate by quantifying the difference between observed state and counterfactual baseline that characterizes system's behavior absence change, where “climate refers any long-term trend climate, irrespective cause” (IPCC, 2014). Impact attribution following this remains challenge because baseline, which hypothetical cannot be observed. Process-based empirical impact models can fill gap as they allow us simulate baseline. In those simulations, are forced direct (human) such land use changes, changes water agricultural management but without changes. We here present ATTRICI (ATTRIbuting Climate Impacts), an approach construct required stationary data from observational (factual) data. Our method identifies shifts considered daily variables correlated global mean temperature assuming smooth annual cycle associated scaling coefficients for each day year. The produced datasets used forcing within setup Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). preserves internal variability sense factual given have same rank their respective statistical distributions. model simulations contribution indicators magnitude individual events. impacts anthropogenic would need additional step separating other sources trends, not covered our method.

Language: Английский

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d4PDF: large-ensemble and high-resolution climate simulations for global warming risk assessment

Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 7(1)

Published: Oct. 7, 2020

Abstract A large-ensemble climate simulation database, which is known as the database for policy decision-making future changes (d4PDF), was designed change risk assessments. Since completion of first set simulations in 2015, has been growing continuously. It contains results ensemble conducted over a total thousands years respectively past and climates using high-resolution global (60 km horizontal mesh) regional (20 atmospheric models. Several sets are available, mean surface air temperatures forced to be higher by 4 K, 2 1.5 K relative preindustrial levels. Nonwarming incorporated d4PDF along with simulations. The data volume approximately petabytes. models satisfactorily simulate terms climatology, natural variations, extreme events such heavy precipitation tropical cyclones. In addition, users can obtain statistically significant states or weather extremes interest between via simple arithmetic computation without any statistical assumptions. helpful understanding attributing warming. Impact assessment studies have concurrently performed various research areas hazard, hydrology, civil engineering, agriculture, health, insurance. now become essential promoting devising adaptation policies. Moreover, it helped establishing an interdisciplinary community on warming across Japan.

Language: Английский

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Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 9(10), P. 737 - 741

Published: Sept. 25, 2019

Language: Английский

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Catalytic Conversion of Carbon Dioxide to Methanol: Current Status and Future Perspective

Frontiers in Energy Research, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 8

Published: Feb. 9, 2021

With the increasing environmental problems caused by carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission and ultimate resources needed for development of human society, CO hydrogenation to methanol with H produced renewable energy represents a promising path forward. Comprehensive analysis shows that production thermal catalytic is most technology large-scale industrialization. This review highlights current developments future perspectives in from 2, as well main existing based on thorough techno-economic analysis. Moreover, utilization status role platform molecule system analyzed. Finally, this attention paid new catalysts, routes technologies conversion aiming clarify direction.

Language: Английский

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Genome Editing for Sustainable Agriculture in Africa

Frontiers in Genome Editing, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 4

Published: May 12, 2022

Sustainable intensification of agriculture in Africa is essential for accomplishing food and nutritional security addressing the rising concerns climate change. There an urgent need to close yield gap staple crops enhance production feed growing population. In order meet increasing demand food, more efficient approaches produce are needed. All tools available toolbox, including modern biotechnology traditional, be applied crop improvement. The full potential new breeding such as genome editing needs exploited addition conventional technologies. Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats/CRISPR-associated protein (CRISPR/Cas)-based has rapidly become most prevalent genetic engineering approach developing improved varieties because its simplicity, efficiency, specificity, easy use. Genome improves variety by modifying endogenous free any foreign gene. Hence, genome-edited with no gene integration not regulated genetically modified organisms (GMOs) several countries. Researchers using CRISPR/Cas-based improving African biotic abiotic stress resistance quality. Many products, disease-resistant banana, maize resistant lethal necrosis, sorghum parasitic plant Striga enhanced quality, under development farmers. a creating enabling environment science-based regulatory guidelines release adoption products developed CRISPR/Cas9-mediated editing. Some progress been made this regard. Nigeria Kenya have recently published national biosafety regulation This article summarizes recent advances developments tools, applications crops, policies Africa.

Language: Английский

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