Recent nationwide climate change impact assessments of natural hazards in Japan and East Asia

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 32, P. 100309 - 100309

Published: Feb. 6, 2021

Climate change due to global warming is expected have major impacts on phenomena such as tropical cyclones (TCs), Baiu, precipitation, and seasonal storms. Many natural disasters in East Asia are driven by TC (typhoon) activity particular their associated hazards sensitive local-scale characteristics. As such, it critically important numerically simulate (and other phenomenon) local scales order properly assess climate the region. In addition, projecting future changes of many TC-related and/or potential economic can be challenging low occurrence frequencies any one area. With these views mind, a collaborative research program was formed Japan project long-term based large-ensemble numerical experiments. This paper reviews recent impact assessments (written both English Japanese) from summarizes projected river flooding, coastal hazards, impacts.

Language: Английский

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Observed influence of anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclone heavy rainfall

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(5), P. 436 - 440

Published: April 28, 2022

Language: Английский

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Identifying Robust Changes of Extreme Precipitation in Japan From Large Ensemble 5‐km‐Grid Regional Experiments for 4K Warming Scenario

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 128(18)

Published: Sept. 19, 2023

Abstract To evaluate the impacts of global warming on local‐scale extreme precipitation in Japan, 720‐year ensemble dynamical downscaling is conducted by a regional climate model with 5 km grid spacing. Our based large data set called database for Policy Decision making Future change (d4PDF). Comparing historical and 4K climates, annual maximum daily hourly are enhanced over Japan due to warming. The increasing rate larger coast Pacific Ocean eastern western northern parts Japan. periods which increases each region depend movement Baiu front number typhoons from June through September. 50‐year return value 24‐hr land within 500 typhoon center 960 mm/24hr experiment. This 1.87 times than that 20 future increase related 1.30 relative present values experiments. quasi‐stationary band‐shaped system, senjo‐kousuitai Japanese, sometimes brings heavy well reproduced experiments shows frequency intensity under condition. study also discusses application our hydrological fields.

Language: Английский

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Impacts of climate change on drought and its consequences on the agricultural crop under worst-case scenario over the Godavari River Basin, India

Climate Services, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 32, P. 100415 - 100415

Published: Sept. 29, 2023

Extreme dry and hot conditions lead to intense droughts in central India. However, the precise changes future drought characteristics their consequences on crop production have not been fully examined Godavari River Basin. Therefore, this study focuses spatiotemporal modelling of climate change impacts over past, present, periods using long-term high spatial gridded data. The past present observed datasets were obtained from Indian Meteorological Department, whereas d4PDF Scenarios. standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was applied analyse statistics identify worst-case scenario (i.e. year most affected by severe-to-extreme with severity), which used further access risk. Because SPEI considers effect both rainfall temperature therefore it is widely recommended meteorological indices best suited for impact assessment. Drought severity analysed a Multi-criteria assessment risk matrix, areas under higher agriculture mapped. frequency intensity magnitude increased decade compared three decades. 75% area showed vulnerability risks, only 25% lower risks less occurrences. Results demonstrate that varies one sub-basin another. More episodes predicted belt, particularly sub-basins Wardha, Wainganga, Pranitha, part Indravati Lower Godavari. 11% covering six districts GRB identified as highly vulnerable, rice drastically reduced, accounting 41.02% loss during event. expected increase scenarios; therefore, effective mitigation strategies are minimise economic loss.

Language: Английский

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Reducing the computational cost of process-based flood frequency estimation by extracting precipitation events from large-ensemble climate dataset

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 132946 - 132946

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Atmospheric Rivers Bring More Frequent and Intense Extreme Rainfall Events Over East Asia Under Global Warming

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 48(24)

Published: Dec. 1, 2021

Abstract Portions of East Asia often experienced extremely heavy rainfall events over the last decade. Intense atmospheric rivers (ARs), eddy transports moisture middle latitudes, contributed significantly to these events. Although previous studies pointed out that landfalling ARs will become more frequent under global warming, extent which produce extreme in a warmer climate remains unclear. Here we evaluate changes frequency and intensity AR‐related warming using set high‐resolution regional simulations. We find both water vapor transport intensify southern western slopes mountains climate. are responsible for large fraction increase occurrence boreal spring summer. bring unprecedented warming.

Language: Английский

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The role of human-induced climate change in heavy rainfall events such as the one associated with Typhoon Hagibis

Climatic Change, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 172(1-2)

Published: May 1, 2022

Abstract Around October 12, 2019, torrential rainfall from Typhoon Hagibis caused large-scale flooding in a large area around the metropole region of Tokyo leading to destruction including losses lives, livelihoods, and economic well over $10 bn US dollars. In this paper we use multi-method probabilistic event attribution framework assess role human-induced climate change heavy responsible for proportion damages. Combining different observational datasets various model simulations, find an increase likelihood such occur 15–150%. We assessment calculated fraction attributable risk (FAR) further estimate costs anthropogenic based on insured losses. Our conservative is that ~$4bn damages due extreme associated with are change.

Language: Английский

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A downscaling and bias correction method for climate model ensemble simulations of local-scale hourly precipitation

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: June 9, 2023

Abstract Ensemble simulations of climate models are used to assess the impact change on precipitation, and require downscaling at local scale. Statistical methods have been estimate daily monthly precipitation from observed simulated data. Downscaling short-term data is necessary for more accurate prediction extreme events related disasters regional level. In this study, we developed investigated performance a method model hourly precipitation. Our was designed recognize time-varying systems that can be represented same resolution as numerical model. improved estimation spatial distribution frequency, average, 99th percentile values. The in amount frequency were shown almost all areas by using 50 ensemble averages estimated although natural variability too large compare with observations. changes consistent simulations. Therefore, our evaluation climatic characteristics comprehensively influence factors, such topography, which difficult evaluate previous methods.

Language: Английский

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Spatiotemporal Variability of Current and Future Sub‐Daily Rainfall in Japan Using State‐Of‐The‐Art High‐Quality Data Sets

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 59(4)

Published: April 1, 2023

Abstract Using potentially best available rainfall data sets for the entire country of Japan (spatial scales 1‐ and 20‐km), we analyze 1–24 hr city‐scale (1–400 km 2 ) extreme rainfalls both current (2006–2020) future periods (2081–2109) at 1.5 K global warming scenario, complementing previous work that focuses on either coarse spatial temporal or other scenarios (e.g., RCP scenarios). A peak‐over‐threshold (POT)‐based approach is applied to compute areal reduction factor (ARF) subsequently establishing intensity‐duration‐area‐frequency (IDAF) curves. Our results reveal ARF values generally decrease with increasing area size increase longer duration are affected by multiple underlying physical phenomena. Moreover, find a greater in intensities shorter durations higher return periods, ranging from 9.4% (1‐hr) 6.2% (24‐hr), averaged all 8.3% (25‐year) 7.3% (2‐year), durations. Spatially, projected 8.9% northern (albeit less intense intensity period), which than rest (6.8%), underscoring need focus more infrastructure designs Japan. The IDAF curves further display an frequency events city‐scale, example, 25‐year 2006–2020 would likely be 5‐10‐year 2081–2109. state‐of‐the‐art implementable can utilized policymaking reduce warming‐induced risks beyond.

Language: Английский

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Assessing the impact of climate change on sediment discharge using a large ensemble rainfall dataset in Pekerebetsu River basin, Hokkaido

Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: Sept. 4, 2023

Abstract Increased rainfall associated with climate change can increase sediment discharge. The supply of fine from slope failures inhibits bed armoring mountain rivers and increases discharge to the downstream reaches. Floods without lead erosion may ultimately decrease Thus, it is important consider failure as factors affecting production. Climate affects not only amount, but also temporal pattern; consequently, pattern production amount However, changes in due based on sources have yet been clarified. In this study, we statistically analyzed 1200 results simulated using a physics-based runoff model assess impact patterns Pekerebetsu River Basin. simulations, used predicted d4PDF (Database for policy decision-making future change), large ensemble simulation database at 5 km 20 resolutions. Our showed that climate-driven was considerably larger than rainfall. An short-term heavy increased sediments failure. This resulted suppression caused by an factors. calculated resolution projection nearly one order magnitude smaller resolution. suggests projections do adequately represent orographic mountains thus, reproduce extreme events. causes aggradation decreases river conveyance capacity channel. developed study will contribute flood risk analysis control planning change.

Language: Английский

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