Projected Changes in Socioeconomic Exposure to Heatwaves in South Asia Under Changing Climate

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2022

Abstract The risk of heatwave events and their persistence has intensified in recent past is expected to increase faster future. However, the anticipated changes socioeconomic exposure heatwaves are still unexplored. Here, we investigate projected heat stress associated across South Asia (SA) its subregions using newly released ensemble mean 23 global climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projections. We used two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely SSP2‐4.5 SSP5‐8.5, three‐time periods, that is, near‐term, midterm, long‐term relative base period (1985–2005). found SA region potential for widespread Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 6.5°C, which can exceed theoretical limits human tolerance by mid 21st century. population's significantly increases during midterm periods ∼ person‐hours under SSP5‐8.5 scenario. GDP greatest same period's up dollar‐hours SSP2‐4.5. Moreover, foothills Himalayans northern parts Pakistan presently unaffected WBGT both scenarios. Among (hereafter R1, R2, R3, R4), frequency subdaily R2 R4 ∼70% ∼90% scenarios period. highest upsurge including southern southwestern India, followed R1 R3. Notably, effect more dominant than whereas contribute total change exposure.

Language: Английский

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Extreme climate events in sub-Saharan Africa: A call for improving agricultural technology transfer to enhance adaptive capacity

Climate Services, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 27, P. 100311 - 100311

Published: July 31, 2022

This study seeks to provide a critical overview of the existing evidence on extreme climate events and adaptation options affected population in order help scholars navigate field. The examined recent that occurred Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), change mentioned literature, need for international technological transfer SSA. 181 peer-reviewed publications were evaluated following topics: 1) impacts extremes SSA; 2) discussed literature region; 3) analysis needs gaps technology SSA, 4) various impact areas adaptive capacity major finding from this is have been observed region, with many leading reductions crop yield qualities quantities, much greater smallholder farmers' livelihoods SSA countries. Based these findings conceptual framework proposed which summarises agriculture food systems concluded there are new countries can adopt developed countries, agricultural needed facilitate better

Language: Английский

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Evaluating observed and future spatiotemporal changes in precipitation and temperature across China based on CMIP6‐GCMs

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 42(15), P. 7703 - 7729

Published: April 22, 2022

Abstract The present study aimed to evaluate the performance of 46 global climate models (GCMs) from newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in historical simulation precipitation and temperature, select best performing GCMs for future projection across China three major river basins. This uses four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), namely SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, SSP5‐8.5 relative base period (1961–2014). Initially, were evaluated employing an improved Taylor diagram method. Based on relatively better performance, 10 best‐performing (TBMs) selected out further evaluation. results show that temperature was well reproduced by CMIP6 over regions with a high correlation coefficient (CC). All TBMs produced good CC ranging 0.8 0.99 presenting distribution well. Meanwhile, EC‐Earth3 EC‐Earth3‐Veg simulated amounts as trends multimodel ensemble mean (MME) underestimates basins bias values −0.53, −0.21, −0.91, −0.68°C, respectively. In contrast, MEM overestimated amount 27.7, 32.4, 21.0, 104.6% During projections, increased are projected all China. increasing trend under scenarios 0.65, 0.86, 1.29, 0.76 mm·a −1 , whereas, is 0.008, 0.028, 0.050, 0.065°C·a Comparatively, greater radiation force, higher increases observed. extent target region its calls deep assessment attribution possible implementation robust methods can accurately simulate observed patterns practice.

Language: Английский

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Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought variability and trends (1981–2020) over South Asia and the associated large-scale circulation patterns

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 60(7-8), P. 2261 - 2284

Published: Aug. 11, 2022

Language: Английский

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Projected Changes in Increased Drought Risks Over South Asia Under a Warmer Climate

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(10)

Published: Oct. 1, 2022

Abstract Every year, millions of people are at risk due to droughts in South Asia (SA). The likely impacts projected increase with global warming. This study uses the new ensemble mean 23 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections quantify future changes increasing drought risks associated socioeconomic exposure across SA its subregions under 1.5°C 2°C We used two shared pathways (SSPs), SSP2‐4.5 SSP5‐8.5. most realization copula functions model joint distribution severity duration. Simultaneously, bivariate return period calculated a warming climate. frequency 50‐year historical (under framework) might double 80% land area Conversely, 12% landmasses may suffer extreme severe episode is expected (40%–75%) (60%–90%) relative recent largest R2 R4, then R1. Additionally, 75% (65%) could increased warmer climate, whereas additional 0.5°C will lead an unbearable regional situation. Limiting compared can significantly reduce influence SA. These findings help disaster‐risk managers adopt climate‐smart management strategies.

Language: Английский

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Understanding the connections between climate change, air pollution, and human health in Africa: Insights from a literature review

Journal of Environmental Science and Health Part C, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 41(3-4), P. 77 - 120

Published: Oct. 2, 2023

Climate change and air pollution are two interconnected global challenges that have profound impacts on human health. In Africa, a continent known for its rich biodiversity diverse ecosystems, the adverse effects of climate particularly concerning. This review study examines implications health well-being in Africa. It explores intersection these factors their impact various outcomes, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disorders, mental health, vulnerable populations such as children elderly. The highlights disproportionate groups emphasizes need targeted interventions policies to protect Furthermore, it discusses role exacerbating potential long-term consequences public also addresses importance considering temperature precipitation changes modifiers pollution. By synthesizing existing research, this aims shed light complex relationships highlight key findings, knowledge gaps, solutions mitigating region. insights gained from can inform evidence-based mitigate promote sustainable development

Language: Английский

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Future Amplification of Multivariate Risk of Compound Drought and Heatwave Events on South Asian Population

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(12)

Published: Dec. 1, 2023

Abstract Over the past few decades, South Asia (SA) has experienced an upsurge in frequency of severe monsoonal compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) occurrences. Climate models that identify land‐atmosphere coupling as a major contributing factor for this exacerbation anticipate increase intensity CDHW occurrences future also represent this. For first time, study investigated evolution events based on new generations CMIP6 population products by applying multivariate framework. Specifically, explored impacts natural climate variability event risks their bivariate return periods two time‐periods emission scenarios across SA its subregions. The odds were then examined using logistic regression model association with anthropogenic drivers was determined. results indicate CDHWs occurrence is anticipated to substantially during late twenty‐first century (2056–2090). 50‐year might two‐fold most mid‐21st under high scenario. We find co‐occurring dry warm conditions rapidly strengthens soil moisture temperature are further exacerbated land‐atmospheric feedback loops. Our findings show persistent spells contribute significantly events, emphasizing regional exposure changing climates.

Language: Английский

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Projected changes in extreme climate events over Africa under 1.5°C, 2.0°C and 3.0°C global warming levels based on CMIP6 projections

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 292, P. 106872 - 106872

Published: June 16, 2023

Language: Английский

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Anthropogenic and atmospheric variability intensifies flash drought episodes in South Asia

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: May 20, 2024

Abstract Flash droughts are abrupt and rapid intensification of that affect agriculture, water, ecosystems commonplace in South Asia. Despite their potential impact, flash drought evolution characteristics underlying mechanisms Asia remain underexplored. We use a multivariate approach to analyze the onset speed, frequency, severity, duration, return period droughts, role atmospheric circulation human-induced climate change. find more common intense crop season, especially central India, western Pakistan, eastern Afghanistan. They caused by persistent patterns block moisture transport Additionally, anthropogenic change has intensified spring-summer with median fraction attributable risk 60%, 80%, 90% for Afghanistan, respectively. Our results suggest will expand worsen future, requiring adaptation measures energy sectors.

Language: Английский

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Intensifying spatially compound heatwaves: Global implications to crop production and human population

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 932, P. 172914 - 172914

Published: April 30, 2024

Language: Английский

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