A machine learning algorithm-based approach (MaxEnt) for predicting invasive potential of Trioza erytreae on a global scale

Ecological Informatics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 71, P. 101792 - 101792

Published: Aug. 29, 2022

Language: Английский

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Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Three Rare Salamanders (Liua shihi, Pseudohynobius jinfo, and Tylototriton wenxianensis) in Chongqing, China, and Their Conservation Implications

Animals, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(5), P. 672 - 672

Published: Feb. 21, 2024

The Wushan Salamander (Liua shihi), Jinfo (Pseudohynobius jinfo), and Wenxian Knobby (Tylototriton wenxianensis) are rare national Class II protected wild animals in China. We performed MaxEnt modeling to predict analyze the potential distribution trends of these species Chongqing under current future climate conditions. Species data were primarily obtained from field surveys, supplemented by museum collections existing literature. These efforts yielded 636 records, including 43 for P. jinfo, 23 T. wenxianensis, 570 L. shihi. Duplicate records within same 100 m × grid cell removed using ENMTools, resulting 10, 12, 58 valid points shihi, respectively. optimization feature class parameters (FC) regularization multiplier (RM) applied R package “ENMeval 2.0” establish optimal model with MaxEnt. refined models simulate suitable areas three species. results indicate that habitat area shihi accounted 9.72% whole region municipality. It is projected that, 2050, proportion will increase 12.54% but decrease 11.98% 2070 further decline 8.80% 2090. jinfo 1.08% municipality, which expected 0.31%% 0.20% 2070, 0.07% wenxianensis 0.81% anticipated 0.37% 0.21% 0.06% Human disturbance, variables, characteristics primary factors influencing salamander Chongqing. proximity roads significantly impacts while conditions mainly affect distance water sources crucial wenxianensis. following suggestions made based on key variables identified each species: (1) For it imperative minimize human disturbances preserve without vegetation nature reserves ensure their continued existence. (2) conservation high-altitude habitats utmost importance, along reduction caused maintain species’ ecological niche. (3) protection aquatic crucial. Additionally, mitigate road construction enhance public awareness essential preservation this connectivity its habitats.

Language: Английский

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Which SDM Model, CLIMEX vs. MaxEnt, Best Forecasts Aeolesthes sarta Distribution at a Global Scale under Climate Change Scenarios?

Insects, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(5), P. 324 - 324

Published: May 1, 2024

A precise evaluation of the risk establishing insect pests is essential for national plant protection organizations. This accuracy crucial in negotiating international trade agreements forestry-related commodities, which have potential to carry and lead unintended introductions importing countries. In our study, we employed both mechanistic correlative niche models assess map global patterns establishment

Language: Английский

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Seasonal resilience of temperate estuarine fish in response to climate change

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 158, P. 111518 - 111518

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

To date, the intricacies and efficacy of how periodic seasonal environmental fluctuations affect fish populations in biogeography context profound climate change remain to be elucidated. Collected monitoring data on resources temperate estuary provide an excellent opportunity assess effects functional assemblages under change. We first developed a framework for predicting habitat suitability different scenarios (SSP1-2.6 SSP5-8.5) 12 Yangtze by examining affinities estuarine fishes. then summarized multidimensional responses (HSRs) discussed possible drivers mechanisms underlying these changes. The results suggest that acidity may decline future as warms, endangering ecosystem many species depend on. Prospective have impact population HSRs through redistribution, area changes, centroid migration suitable habitats; nevertheless, affinity factors limited distinguishing patterns response spring. Fish (5 populations) (11 assemblages) exhibit robust adaptations or non-adaptations when seasons change, given their area. Furthermore, projections indicate majority centroids responses, migrating northeast spring southeast autumn. By decentralizing risk scales, resilience several (5/12) (11/16) is revealed time. Efforts mitigate risks safeguard should take forecasts indicative information into account.

Language: Английский

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The ecological suitability area of Cirsium lineare (Thunb.) Sch.‐Bip. under future climate change in China based on MaxEnt modeling

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Abstract Many kinds of medicinal ingredients occur in Cirsium lineare that have good clinical efficacy, conferring on this species its high development value. However, with a rapidly changing global climate, it is increasingly imperative to study the factors affecting habitat distribution and survival species. We predicted current future areas suitable habitats for C. , analyzed importance environmental variables influencing shifts, described alterations different periods (modern, 2050s, 2070s) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The results show that, under total area about 2,220,900 km 2 which highly portion amounts ca. 292,600 . minimum temperature coldest month, annual precipitation, mean daily range are chief In same period, rising greenhouse gas emission concentrations, will increase. general, climate change, gradually migrate west north, also expand. experiment can be used conservation management wild resources lineare. choose growth protect through situ artificial breeding.

Language: Английский

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Predicted range expansion of Prostephanus truncatus (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) under projected climate change scenarios

Journal of Economic Entomology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 117(4), P. 1686 - 1700

Published: May 16, 2024

Abstract The larger grain borer (Prostephanus truncatus [Horn] [Coleoptera: Bostrichidae]) is a wood-boring insect native to Central America and adapted stored maize cassava. It was accidentally introduced Tanzania became pest across central Africa. Unlike many pests, P. populations can establish move within forests. Consequently, novel infestations occur without human influence. objectives of our study were (i) develop an updated current suitability projection for truncatus, (ii) assess its potential future distribution under different climate change scenarios, (iii) identify variables that best inform the model. We used WALLACE MaxEnt predict global by incorporating bioclimatic occurrence records. Future models projected 2050 2070 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 (low change) 8.5 (high change). Distribution most limited high precipitation cold temperatures. Globally, highly suitable areas (> 75%) primarily occurred along coastal equatorial regions in northern South America, India, southeastern Asia, Indonesia, Philippines, totaling 7% conditions. Highly at RCPs are estimated increase 12% 15%, respectively, 19% RCP 8.5. Centroids show centers moving more inshore away from equator. Notably, result range expansion, not shift. Results be decrease biosecurity risks through spatially explicit timely surveillance programs targeting exclusion this pest.

Language: Английский

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Forecasting the Expansion of Bactrocera tsuneonis (Miyake) (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China Using the MaxEnt Model

Insects, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(6), P. 417 - 417

Published: June 4, 2024

The invasive pest, Bactrocera tsuneonis (Miyake), has become a significant threat to China’s citrus industry. Predicting the area of potentially suitable habitats for B. is essential optimizing pest control strategies that mitigate its impact on Here, existing distribution data tsuneonis, as well current climate and projections four future periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were obtained. under different change scenarios in China was predicted using optimized MaxEnt model, ArcGIS, ENMeval package. accuracy assessed ROC curves, primary environmental factors influencing identified based percent contribution. When regularization multiplier (RM) set 1.5 feature combination (FC) LQH, model with lower complexity Under these parameter settings, mean training AUC 0.9916, testing 0.9854, indicating high predictive performance. most influential variables limiting Precipitation Warmest Quarter (Bio18) Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation ×100) (Bio4). climatic conditions, habitat covered an 215.9 × 104 km2, accounting 22.49% country’s land area. Potentially primarily concentrated Central China, South East China. However, projections, exhibited varying degrees expansion. Furthermore, centroid total this gradually shifted westward northward. These findings suggest will spread northern western regions changes. results our study indicate have major effect invasion implications development

Language: Английский

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Forecast of Current and Future Distributions of Corythucha marmorata (Uhler) under Climate Change in China

Forests, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(5), P. 843 - 843

Published: May 11, 2024

Corythucha marmorata (Uhler) emerged as an invasive pest in China around 2010, posing a significant threat to plants within the Asteraceae family. Employing MaxEnt model, this study endeavors anticipate potential geographic distribution of amid present and forthcoming climatic conditions, utilizing dataset 60 distributional occurrences alongside environmental parameters. The results revealed that presently, suitable regions span from 18–47° N 103–128° E, with pronounced suitability concentrated notably Jiangsu, Shanghai, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan. Projections suggested general expansion habitats, albeit exceptions noted SSP1–2.6 SSP2–4.5 scenarios 2050s SSP5–8.5 2070s. areas for was influenced by major factors such precipitation warmest quarter (bio18), mean temperature (bio10), wettest (bio8), annual (bio12). Notably, emerge primary determinants affecting both current future ranges. In comparison area, there trend towards increasing potentially future. Moreover, greater risk spreading north This serves pivotal resource guiding monitoring, early detection, preventative management strategies targeting marmorata.

Language: Английский

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Ultraconserved elements from transcriptome and genome data provide insight into the phylogenomics of Sternorrhyncha (Insecta: Hemiptera)

Cladistics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 40(5), P. 496 - 509

Published: May 29, 2024

Abstract Sternorrhyncha, one of the four major suborders Hemiptera, is a phytophagous taxon inclusive nearly 18 000 described species. The phylogenetic relationships within and earliest‐branching lineage its infraorders remain incompletely understood. This study attempted to illuminate Sternorrhyncha through use maximum likelihood, Bayesian inference parsimony analyses, employing ultraconserved element (UCE) data from 39 genomic 62 transcriptomic datasets thereby representing most families taxon. probe set Hemiptera 2.7Kv1 was used recover total 2731 UCE loci: 547 1699 (with an average 1084) across all 108 849 329) datasets. All three types analyses employed in this produced robust statistical support for being monophyletic group. different methods analysis inconsistent descriptions topological structure at infraorder level: while likelihood strong evidence (100%) indicating clade Psylloidea + Aleyrodoidea be sister Aphidoidea (Aphidomorpha) Coccoidea (Coccomorpha), failed similar result. Our results also provide detail on each infraorder. presents first investigate phylogeny Sternorrhyncha. It shows viability amalgamating studies relationships, potentially highlighting resource‐efficient approach future inquiries into diverse taxa integration varied sources.

Language: Английский

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Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Potential Distribution of Pine Wood Nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) in China

Forests, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(7), P. 1253 - 1253

Published: July 18, 2024

Bursaphelenchus xylophilus is a pest that interferes with the health of forests and hinders development forestry industry, its spread influenced by changes in abiotic factors human activities. The potential distribution areas B. China under four shared-economic pathways were predicted using optimized MaxEnt model (version 3.4.3), combining data from variety environmental variables: (1) prediction natural variables current climate models; (2) + activities (3) future models (2050s 2070s). Meanwhile, whether niche has changed over time analyzed. results showed activities, precipitation driest month, annual precipitation, elevation had significant effects on xylophilus. In conditions, greatly reduced survival area xylophilus, suitable was mainly concentrated southwestern central regions China. Under influence change future, habitat will gradually to northeast. addition, ecological overlap analysis greater than 0.74. This study provides important information for understanding adaptation risk which can help guide decision making control forest protection.

Language: Английский

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