The challenges of dynamic vulnerability and how to assess it

iScience, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 25(8), P. 104720 - 104720

Published: July 4, 2022

Recent disasters have demonstrated the challenges faced by society as a result of increasing complexity disaster risk. In this perspective article, we discuss complex interactions between hazards and vulnerability suggest methodological approaches to assess include dynamics in our risk assessments, learning from compound multi-hazard, socio-hydrology, socio-ecological research communities. We argue for changed perspective, starting with circumstances that determine dynamic vulnerability. identify three types vulnerability: (1) underlying vulnerability, (2) changes during long-lasting disasters, (3) compounding societal shocks. conclude there is great potential capture using qualitative model-based methods, both reproducing historic projecting future provide examples narratives, agent-based models, system dynamics.

Language: Английский

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Urban water crises driven by elites’ unsustainable consumption

Nature Sustainability, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(8), P. 929 - 940

Published: April 10, 2023

Over the past two decades, more than 80 metropolitan cities across world have faced severe water shortages due to droughts and unsustainable use. Future projections are even alarming, since urban crises expected escalate most heavily affect those who socially, economically politically disadvantaged. Here we show how social inequalities different groups or individuals play a major role in production manifestation of such crises. Specifically, stark socioeconomic inequalities, elites able overconsume while excluding less-privileged populations from basic access. Through an interdisciplinary approach, model uneven domestic use spaces estimate consumption trends for groups. The highly unequal area Cape Town serves as case point illustrate by elite can exacerbate at least much climate change population growth. Urban crises, consumption, becoming increasingly recurrent cities. This study shows revealing implications overconsumption privileged individuals.

Language: Английский

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Drought and society: Scientific progress, blind spots, and future prospects

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(3)

Published: Jan. 23, 2022

Human activities have increasingly intensified the severity, frequency, and negative impacts of droughts in several regions across world. This trend has led to broader scientific conceptualizations drought risk that account for human actions their interplays with natural systems. review focuses on physical engineering sciences examine way extent which these disciplines social processes relation production distribution risk. We conclude this research significantly progressed terms recognizing role humans reshaping its socioenvironmental impacts. note an increasing engagement contribution understanding vulnerability, resilience, adaptation patterns. Moreover, by advancing (socio)hydrological models, developing numerical indexes, enhancing data processing, scientists determined influences propagation hazard. However, studies do not fully capture complexities anthropogenic transformations. Very often, they portray society as homogeneous, decision-making apolitical, thereby concealing power relations underlying uneven The resistance engaging explicitly politics power-despite major producing drought-can be attributed strong influence positivist epistemologies sciences. suggest active critical can further theorizations shedding light structural historical systems engender every transformation. article is categorized under:Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives.

Language: Английский

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Flash drought: A state of the science review

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11(3)

Published: Jan. 9, 2024

Abstract In the two decades, since advent of term “flash drought,” considerable research has been directed toward topic. Within scientific community, we have actively forged a new paradigm that avoided chaotic evolution conventional drought but instead recognizes flash droughts distinct dynamics and, particularly, impacts. We moved beyond initial debate over definition to centralized focus on triad rapid onset, development, and associated The refinement this general set principles led significant progress in determining key variables for monitoring identifying notable case studies, compiling fundamental physical characteristics drought. However, critical areas still remain, including advancing our knowledge atmospheric oceanic drivers drought; developing drought‐specific detection indices systems tailored practitioners; improving subseasonal‐to‐seasonal prediction these events; constraining uncertainty impact projections; using social science further understanding impacts, particularly with regard sectors lie outside traditional hydroclimatological focus, such as wildfire management food‐security monitoring. Researchers stakeholders working together topics will assure society is resilient changing climate. This article categorized under: Science Water > Extremes

Language: Английский

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Research progress on the impact of climate change on wheat production in China

PeerJ, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13, P. e18569 - e18569

Published: Jan. 6, 2025

It is crucial to elucidate the impact of climate change on wheat production in China. This article provides a review current scenario and its effects cultivation China, along with an examination potential future impacts possible response strategies. Against backdrop change, several key trends emerge: increasing temperature during growing season, raising precipitation, elevated CO 2 concentration, diminished radiation. Agricultural disasters primarily stem from oscillations northern region being mostly affected. The manifested reduction area under cultivation, most rapid spring wheat, shift center west. Furthermore, accelerates nutritional stage shortens phenology. Climate has also led increase yields Northeast region, Northern Northwest North China winter decrease middle lower reaches Yangtze River Southwest South region. To cope Chinese can adopt adaptation strategies measures such as breeding different varieties for wheat-growing regions, implementing differentiated farmland management measures, promoting regional ecological construction, establishing scientific monitoring early warning systems. While may stimulate yield potential, it could cause climate-induced issues weeds, diseases, pests worsen, thereby posing challenges sustainability farmland. Moreover, essential conduct comprehensive research pivotal areas microscopic mechanism growth, influence multiple factors, application new simulation technologies. will facilitate advancement related provide invaluable insights.

Language: Английский

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A Multidecadal Assessment of Drought Intensification in the Middle East and North Africa: The Role of Global Warming and Rainfall Deficit

Earth Systems and Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 14, 2025

Language: Английский

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Tackling Growing Drought Risks—The Need for a Systemic Perspective

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(9)

Published: Sept. 1, 2023

Abstract In the last few years, world has experienced numerous extreme droughts with adverse direct, cascading, and systemic impacts. Despite more frequent severe events, drought risk assessment is still incipient compared to that of other meteorological climate hazards. This mainly due complexity drought, high level uncertainties in its analysis, lack community agreement on a common framework tackle problem. Here, we outline effectively assess manage risks, perspective needed. We propose novel highlights nature show operationalization using example 2022 Europe. research emphasizes solutions growing risks should not only consider underlying drivers for different sectors, systems or regions, but also be based an understanding sector/system interdependencies, feedbacks, dynamics, compounding concurring hazards, as well possible tipping points globally and/or regionally networked risks.

Language: Английский

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Waterborne Diseases That Are Sensitive to Climate Variability and Climate Change

New England Journal of Medicine, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 389(23), P. 2175 - 2187

Published: Dec. 6, 2023

The authors discuss adaptive strategies for reducing the risk of climate-sensitive waterborne diseases, such as climate-proofing water treatment and distribution systems improving early-warning systems.

Language: Английский

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Thinking systemically about climate services: Using archetypes to reveal maladaptation

Climate Services, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 34, P. 100490 - 100490

Published: April 1, 2024

Developing and implementing climate adaptation measures in complex socio-ecological systems can lead to unintended consequences, especially when those are undergoing rapid hydro-climatic socio-economic change. In these dynamic contexts, a systemic approach make the difference between adaptive maladaptive outcomes. This paper focuses on use of services, often touted as no-regret solutions, their potential generate maladaptation. We explored interactions services adaptation/maladaptation across five case studies affected by different types natural hazards characterized range conditions. Using system archetypes, we show how play role both producing preventing The dynamics through archetypes are: i) "fixes that fail", where short-sighted solutions fail address root causes problem; ii) "band aid solutions", benefits brought about short-term come at expenses delaying long-term actions; iii) "success successful", some groups increasingly benefit from other groups. demonstrate constitute processes, well identifying tools theories be used this type assessment. Finally, provide framework recommendations guide ex-ante assessment maladaptation risk designing services.

Language: Английский

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Harnessing Beneficial Microbes for Drought Tolerance: A Review of Ecological and Agricultural Innovations

Agriculture, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(12), P. 2228 - 2228

Published: Dec. 5, 2024

Drought is an increasingly critical global challenge, significantly impacting agricultural productivity, food security, and ecosystem stability. As climate change intensifies the frequency severity of drought events, innovative strategies are essential to enhance plant resilience sustain systems. This review explores vital role beneficial microbes in conferring tolerance, focusing on Plant Growth-Promoting Rhizobacteria (PGPR), mycorrhizal fungi, endophytes, actinomycetes, cyanobacteria. These microorganisms mitigate stress through diverse mechanisms, including osmotic adjustment, enhancement root architecture, modulation phytohormones, induction antioxidant defenses, regulation stress-responsive gene expression. Ecological innovations leveraging these have demonstrated significant potential bolstering resilience. Strategies such as soil microbiome engineering, bioaugmentation, integration microbial synergies within pest management frameworks sustainability. Additionally, advancements practices, seed coating, amendments, development consortia, precision agriculture technologies, validated effectiveness scalability interventions farming Despite promising advancements, several challenges hinder widespread adoption solutions. Environmental variability can affect performance, necessitating robust adaptable strains. Scale-up commercialization hurdles, economic constraints, regulatory safety considerations also pose barriers. Furthermore, complex interactions between microbes, plants, their environments require a deeper understanding optimize benefits consistently. Future research should focus integrating cutting-edge technologies genomics, synthetic biology, refine interventions. Collaborative efforts among academia, industry, government bridge gap practical implementation. By addressing harnessing innovations, it possible develop resilient sustainable systems capable thriving water-scarce world.

Language: Английский

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