Flood hazard potential reveals global floodplain settlement patterns

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: May 16, 2023

Flooding is one of the most common natural hazards, causing disastrous impacts worldwide. Stress-testing global human-Earth system to understand sensitivity floodplains and population exposure a range plausible conditions strategy identify where future changes flooding or might be critical. This study presents analysis inundated areas varying flood event magnitudes globally for 1.2 million river reaches. Here we show that topography drainage correlate with sensitivities as well societal behaviour. We find clear settlement patterns in which sensitive frequent, low magnitude events, reveal evenly distributed across hazard zones, suggesting people have adapted this risk. In contrast, extreme events tendency populations densely settled these rarely flooded being significant danger from potentially increasing given climate change.

Language: Английский

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Ten strategies towards successful calibration of environmental models

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 620, P. 129414 - 129414

Published: March 21, 2023

Model calibration is the procedure of finding model settings such that simulated outputs best match observed data. necessary when parameters cannot directly be measured as case with a wide range environmental models where are conceptually describing upscaled and effective physical processes. therefore an important step modeling might otherwise provide random if never compared to ground truth. itself often referred art due its plenitude intertwined steps decisions along way before can carried out or regarded successful. This work provides general guide specifying which modeler needs undertake, how diagnose success each step, identify right action revise were not The formalized into ten iterative generally appearing in experiments. Each this "calibration life cycle" either illustrated exemplary experiment providing explicit checklist follow. These strategies are: (1) using sensitivity information calibration, (2) handling constraints, (3) data ranging orders magnitude, (4) choosing base on, (5) presenting various methods sample parameters, (6) appropriate parameter ranges, (7) objective functions, (8) selecting algorithm, (9) determining quality multi-objective (10) performance ideas introduced previous steps. formal definition through process overview while shedding light on connections between these main ingredients calibrate will enable especially novice modelers succeed.

Language: Английский

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Global lakes are warming slower than surface air temperature due to accelerated evaporation

Nature Water, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 1(11), P. 929 - 940

Published: Oct. 23, 2023

Language: Английский

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The Influence of Topography on the Global Terrestrial Water Cycle

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 63(1)

Published: Jan. 3, 2025

Abstract Topography affects the distribution and movement of water on Earth, yet new insights about topographic controls continue to surprise us exciting puzzles remain. Here we combine literature review data synthesis explore influence topography global terrestrial cycle, from atmosphere down groundwater. Above land surface, induces gradients contrasts in energy availability. Long‐term precipitation usually increases with elevation mid‐latitudes, while it peaks at low‐ mid‐elevations tropics. Potential evaporation tends decrease all climate zones. At is expressed snow distribution, vegetation zonation, geomorphic landforms, critical zone, drainage networks. Evaporation activity are often highest where neither temperature, nor availability, availability—often modulated by lateral moisture redistribution—impose strong limitations. Below drives groundwater local continental scales. In many steep upland regions, systems well connected streams provide ample baseflow, start losing foothills bedrock transitions into highly permeable sediment. We conclude presenting organizing principles, discussing implications change human activity, identifying needs knowledge gaps. A defining feature resulting presence contrasts, whose interactions explain patterns observe nature how they might future.

Language: Английский

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Accuracy, realism and general applicability of European forest models

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 28(23), P. 6921 - 6943

Published: Aug. 12, 2022

Forest models are instrumental for understanding and projecting the impact of climate change on forests. A considerable number forest have been developed in last decades. However, few systematic comprehensive model comparisons performed Europe that combine an evaluation modelled carbon water fluxes structure. We evaluate 13 widely used, state-of-the-art, stand-scale against field measurements structure eddy-covariance data over multiple decades across environmental gradient at nine typical European stands. test models' performance three dimensions: accuracy local predictions (agreement observed annual data), realism responses daily gross primary productivity to temperature, radiation vapour pressure deficit) general applicability (proportion tree species covered). find available excel according our dimensions performance. For predictions, variables related lower random errors than flux variables. Moreover, multi-model ensemble mean provided overall more realistic drivers all sites any single individual model. The is high, as almost currently able cover Europe's common species. show complement each other their response there several cases which outperform ensemble. Our framework provides a first step capturing essential differences between go beyond most commonly used predictions. Overall, this study point reference future work aimed predicting impacts supporting mitigation adaptation measures

Language: Английский

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AI for climate impacts: applications in flood risk

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: June 8, 2023

Abstract In recent years there has been a surge of interest in the potential Artificial Intelligence (AI) to address global threat climate change. Here, we consider change applications, and review ability AI technologies better quantify change-induced hazards, impacts risks, key challenges this domain. We focus on three application areas: data-driven modeling, enabling uncertainty quantification, leveraging geospatial big data. For these, provide examples from flood-related applications illustrate advantages AI, comparison alternative methods, whilst also considering its limitations. conclude that by streamlining process translating weather data into actionable information, facilitated suitable technology framework, can play role building resilience.

Language: Английский

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Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models

Nature Water, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 1(12), P. 1079 - 1090

Published: Nov. 27, 2023

Language: Английский

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On (in)validating environmental models. 1. Principles for formulating a Turing‐like Test for determining when a model is fit‐for purpose

Hydrological Processes, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 36(10)

Published: Sept. 24, 2022

Abstract Model invalidation is a good thing. It means that we are forced to reconsider either model structures or the available data more closely, challenge our fundamental understanding of problem at hand. not easy, however, decide when should be invalidated, expect sources uncertainty in environmental modelling will often epistemic rather than simply aleatory nature. In particular, errors inputs may well exert very strong control over how accurate might predictions compared against evaluation also subject uncertainties. We suggest both modellers and referees treat validation as form Turing‐like Test, whilst being explicit about uncertainties observed their impacts assessed. Eight principles formulating such tests presented. Being decisions made framing an analysis one important way facilitate communication with users outputs, especially it intended use simulator ‘model everywhere’ ‘digital twin’ catchment system. An example application concepts provided Part 2.

Language: Английский

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A mechanistic approach to include climate change and unplanned urban sprawl in landslide susceptibility maps

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 858, P. 159412 - 159412

Published: Oct. 13, 2022

Empirical evidence shows that climate, deforestation and informal housing (i.e. unregulated construction practices typical of fast-growing developing countries) can increase landslide occurrence. However, these environmental changes have not been considered jointly in a dynamic way regional or national susceptibility assessments. This gap might be due to lack models represent large areas (>100km2) computationally efficient way, while simultaneously considering the effect rainfall infiltration, vegetation housing. We therefore suggest new method uses hillslope-scale mechanistic model generate maps under changing climate urbanisation, which also accounts for existing uncertainties. An application Caribbean estimated with associated past rainfall-intensive hurricane identifies ~67.5 % landslides observed after event. subsequently demonstrate hypothetical expansion (including deforestation) increases more (+20 %) than intensified rainstorms change (+6 %). their combined leads much greater occurrence (up +40 if two drivers were independently. Results importance including both land cover Furthermore, by modelling mechanistically overlooked dynamics between urban growth change, our methodology provide quantitative information main (e.g. quantifying relative impact vs urbanisation) locations where are become most detrimental slope stability. Such is often missing data-scarce countries but key supporting long-term planning, targeting financial efforts, as well fostering international investments mitigation.

Language: Английский

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A skill assessment framework for the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project

Authorea (Authorea), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: May 15, 2024

Understanding climate change impacts on global marine ecosystems and fisheries requires complex ecosystem models, forced by projections, that can robustly detect project changes. The Fisheries Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) uses an ensemble modelling approach to fill this crucial gap. Yet FishMIP does not have a standardised skill assessment framework quantify the ability of member models reproduce past observations guide model improvement. In study, we apply comprehensive subset produce historical catches. We consider suite metrics assess their utility in illustrating models’ observed Our findings reveal improvement performance at both regional (Large Ecosystem) scales from Coupled Phase 5 6 simulation rounds. analysis underscores importance employing easily interpretable, relative estimate capability capture temporal variations, alongside absolute error measures characterise shifts magnitude these variations between across developed tested here provides first objective baseline ensemble’s reproducing catch scale. This be further improved systematically applied test reliability whole future rounds include more variables like fish biomass or production.

Language: Английский

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