Stand age diversity and climate change affects forests’ resilience and stability, although unevenly DOI Creative Commons
Elia Vangi, Daniela Dalmonech, Elisa Cioccolo

et al.

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: July 13, 2023

Abstract Stand age significantly influences the functioning of forest ecosystems by shaping structural and physiological plant traits, affecting water carbon budgets. Forest distribution is determined interplay tree mortality regeneration, influenced both natural anthropogenic disturbances. Thus, human-driven alteration presents an underexplored avenue for enhancing stability resilience. In our study, we investigated how impacts resilience budget under current future climate conditions. We employed a biogeochemical model on three historically managed stands, projecting their as undisturbed systems, i.e., left at evolution with no management interventions. The model, driven data from five Earth System Models four representative scenarios one baseline scenario, spanned 11 classes each stand. Our findings indicate that Net Primary Production (NPP) peaks in young middle-aged (16- to 50-year-old), aligning ecological theories, regardless scenario. Under change, beech exhibited increase NPP maintained across all classes, while remained constant rising atmospheric CO 2 temperatures. However, declined change Norway spruce Scots pine sites. these coniferous forests, were more influenced. These results underscore necessity accounting species-specific reactions evaluating We, therefore, advocate customized strategies enhance adaptability forests changing climatic conditions, taking into account diverse responses different species groups climate.

Language: Английский

Towards an Integrated Approach to Wildfire Risk Assessment: When, Where, What and How May the Landscapes Burn DOI Creative Commons
Emilio Chuvieco, Marta Yebra, Simone Martino

et al.

Fire, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(5), P. 215 - 215

Published: May 22, 2023

This paper presents a review of concepts related to wildfire risk assessment, including the determination fire ignition and propagation (fire danger), extent which may spatially overlap with valued assets (exposure), potential losses resilience those (vulnerability). is followed by brief discussion how these can be integrated connected mitigation adaptation efforts. We then operational systems in place various parts world. Finally, we propose an system being developed under FirEUrisk European project, as example different components (including danger, exposure vulnerability) generated combined into synthetic indices provide more comprehensive but also consider where on what variables reduction efforts should stressed envisage policies better adapted future regimes. Climate socio-economic changes entail that wildfires are becoming even critical environmental hazard; extreme fires observed many areas world regularly experience fire, yet activity increasing were previously rare. To mitigate negative impacts responsible for managing must leverage information available through assessment process, along improved understanding targeted improve optimize strategies risk.

Language: Английский

Citations

70
The evolution, complexity and diversity of models of long‐term forest dynamics DOI Creative Commons
Harald Bugmann, Rupert Seidl

Journal of Ecology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 110(10), P. 2288 - 2307

Published: Aug. 26, 2022

To assess the impacts of climate change on vegetation from stand to global scales, models forest dynamics that include tree demography are needed. Such now available for 50 years, but currently existing diversity model formulations and its evolution over time poorly documented. This hampers systematic assessments structural uncertainties in model-based studies.We conducted a meta-analysis 28 models, focusing were used past five years studies. We defined 52 attributes groups (basic assumptions, growth, regeneration, mortality soil moisture) characterized each according these attributes. Analyses complexity included hierarchical cluster analysis redundancy analysis.Model evolved considerably years. Increases largest growth processes, while modelled establishment processes increased only moderately. Model was lowest at scale, highest landscape scale. identified distinct clusters ranging very simple where specific attribute rendered complex manner feature high across all attributes.Most use today not balanced level with which they represent different processes. is result purposes, also reflects legacies code, modelers' preferences, 'prevailing spirit epoch'. The lack firm theories, laws 'first principles' ecology provides degrees freedom development, results responsibilities developers need rigorous evaluation.

Language: Английский

Citations

64
Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models DOI Creative Commons
Sebastian Gnann, Robert Reinecke, Lina Stein

et al.

Nature Water, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 1(12), P. 1079 - 1090

Published: Nov. 27, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

27
Networking the forest infrastructure towards near real-time monitoring – A white paper DOI
Roman Zweifel, Christoforos Pappas, Richard L. Peters

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 872, P. 162167 - 162167

Published: Feb. 11, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

26
Regional estimates of gross primary production applying the Process-Based Model 3D-CMCC-FEM vs. Remote-Sensing multiple datasets DOI Creative Commons
Daniela Dalmonech, Elia Vangi, Marta Chiesi

et al.

European Journal of Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 57(1)

Published: Jan. 9, 2024

Process-based Forest Models (PBFMs) offer the possibility to capture important spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes stocks in forests. Yet, their predictive capacity should be demonstrated not only at stand-level but also context broad heterogeneity. We apply a stand scale PBFM (3D-CMCC-FEM) spatially explicit manner 1 km resolution southern Italy. developed methodology initialize model that includes information derived from integration Remote Sensing (RS) National Inventory (NFI) data regional forest maps characterize structural features main species. Gross primary production (GPP) is simulated over 2005–2019 period capability simulating GPP evaluated both aggregated as species-level through multiple independent sources based on different nature RS-based products. show able reproduce most (~2800 km2) (32 years total) observed seasonal, annual interannual time scales, even species-level. These promising results open confindently applying 3D-CMCC-FEM investigate forests' behaviour under climate environmental variability large areas across highly variable ecological bio-geographical heterogeneity Mediterranean region.

Language: Английский

Citations

11
Feasibility of enhancing carbon sequestration and stock capacity in temperate and boreal European forests via changes to management regimes DOI
Daniela Dalmonech, Gina Marano, Jeffrey S. Amthor

et al.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 327, P. 109203 - 109203

Published: Oct. 15, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

35
MEDFATE 2.9.3: a trait-enabled model to simulate Mediterranean forest function and dynamics at regional scales DOI Creative Commons
Miquel De Cáceres, Roberto Molowny‐Horas, Antoine Cabon

et al.

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 16(11), P. 3165 - 3201

Published: June 6, 2023

Abstract. Regional-level applications of dynamic vegetation models are challenging because they need to accommodate the variation in plant functional diversity, which requires moving away from broadly defined types. Different approaches have been adopted last years incorporate a trait-based perspective into modeling exercises. A common parametrization strategy involves using trait data represent between individuals while discarding taxonomic identity. However, this ignores phylogenetic signal and cannot be employed when predictions for specific taxa needed, such as inform forest management planning. An alternative adapting resolution model entities that source large-scale initialization estimating parameters available databases, adopting diverse solutions missing non-observable parameters. Here we report advantages limitations second according our experience development MEDFATE (version 2.9.3), novel cohort-based trait-enabled dynamics, its application over region western Mediterranean Basin. First, 217 were woody species codes Spanish National Forest Inventory. While inventory records used obtain some empirical parameter estimates, large proportion physiological, morphological, anatomical matched measured traits, with estimates extracted multiple databases averaged at required level. Estimates key obtained meta-modeling calibration Missing values addressed imputation procedures based on covariation, averages or both. The properly simulated observed historical changes basal area, performance similar an trained same region. strong efforts still parameterize taxa, intra-specific variability, estimation those presented here can progressively refined, transferred other regions iterated following by employing automated workflows. We advocate adoption population-structured regional-level projections function dynamics.

Language: Английский

Citations

19
Stand age diversity (and more than climate change) affects forests’ resilience and stability, although unevenly DOI Creative Commons
Elia Vangi, Daniela Dalmonech, Elisa Cioccolo

et al.

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 366, P. 121822 - 121822

Published: July 16, 2024

Stand age significantly influences the functioning of forest ecosystems by shaping structural and physiological plant traits, affecting water carbon budgets. Forest distribution is determined interplay tree mortality regeneration, influenced both natural anthropogenic disturbances. Unfortunately, human-driven alteration presents an underexplored avenue for enhancing stability resilience. In our study, we investigated how impacts resilience budget under current future climate conditions. We employed a state-of-the-science biogeochemical, biophysical, validated process-based model on historically managed stands, projecting their as undisturbed systems, i.e., left at evolution with no management interventions (i.e., forests are to develop undisturbed). Such model, forced data from five Earth System Models four representative scenarios one baseline scenario disentangle effect change, spanned several classes European forests' context, each stand. Our findings indicate that Net Primary Production (NPP) peaks in young middle-aged (16- 50-year-old), aligning longstanding ecological theories, regardless scenario. Under beech exhibited increase NPP maintained across all classes, while remained constant rising atmospheric CO

Language: Английский

Citations

8
Latest Trends in Modelling Forest Ecosystems: New Approaches or Just New Methods? DOI Creative Commons
Juan A. Blanco, Yueh‐Hsin Lo

Current Forestry Reports, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 9(4), P. 219 - 229

Published: June 15, 2023

Abstract Purpose of Review Forest models are becoming essential tools in forest research, management, and policymaking but currently under deep transformation. In this review the most recent literature (2018–2022), we aim to provide an updated general view main topics attracting efforts modelers, trends already place, some current future challenges that field will face. Recent Findings Four major on modelling efforts: data acquisition, productivity estimation, ecological pattern predictions, management related ecosystem services. Although may seem different, they all converging towards integrated approaches by pressure climate change as coalescent force, pushing research into mechanistic, cross-scale simulations functioning structure. Summary We conclude is experiencing exciting challenging time, due combination new methods easily acquire massive amounts data, techniques statistically process such refinements mechanistic incorporating higher levels complexity breaking traditional barriers spatial temporal scales. However, available also creating challenges. any case, increasingly acknowledged a community interdisciplinary effort. As such, ways deliver simplified versions or easy entry points should be encouraged integrate non-modelers stakeholders since its inception. This considered particularly academic modelers increasing mathematical models.

Language: Английский

Citations

15
Predicted Future Changes in the Mean Seasonal Carbon Cycle Due to Climate Change DOI Open Access
Mauro Morichetti, Elia Vangi, Alessio Collalti

et al.

Forests, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(7), P. 1124 - 1124

Published: June 28, 2024

Through photosynthesis, forests absorb annually large amounts of atmospheric CO2. However, they also release CO2 back through respiration. These two, opposite in sign, fluxes determine how much the carbon is stored or released into atmosphere. The mean seasonal cycle (MSC) an interesting metric that associates phenology and (C) partitioning/allocation analysis within forest stands. Here, we applied 3D-CMCC-FEM model analyzed its capability to represent main C-fluxes, by validating against observed data, questioning if sink/source seasonality influenced under two scenarios climate change, five contrasting European sites. We found has, current conditions, robust predictive abilities estimating NEE. Model results predict a consistent reduction forest’s capabilities act as C-sink change stand-aging at all Such predicted despite number annual days evergreen increasing over years, indicating downward trend. Similarly, deciduous forests, maintaining relatively stable throughout year century, show their overall capacity. Overall, both types sites future mitigating potential.

Language: Английский

Citations

5