Drivers of decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink in the past, present, and future in Earth system models DOI Creative Commons
Jens Terhaar

Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 21(17), P. 3903 - 3926

Published: Sept. 4, 2024

Abstract. The ocean and the land biosphere are two major sinks of anthropogenic carbon at present. When emissions become zero temperatures stabilize, is projected to dominant only global natural sink carbon. Despite ocean's importance for cycle hence climate, uncertainties about decadal variability in this underlying drivers remain large because observing detecting changes over time challenging. main tools that used provide annually resolved estimates last decades observation-based pCO2 products extrapolate sparse observations space biogeochemical models forced with atmospheric reanalysis data. However, these (i) limited 3 7 decades, which hinders statistical analyses trends; (ii) all based on same internal climate state, makes it impossible separate externally internally contributions (iii) cannot assess robustness future, especially when decline or cease entirely. Here, I use an ensemble 12 Earth system (ESMs) from phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) understand trends past, present, future sink. simulations by ESMs span period 1850 2100 include four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), low high mitigation mitigation. Using ensemble, show 80 % can be explained CO2 as long remains smaller than 4.5 Pg C yr−1. remaining 20 due heat uptake, result a loss ocean. exceeds yr−1, occurs high-emission SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5, rises faster, change accelerates, overturning chemical capacity take up atmosphere reduce, so substantially estimated trends. breakdown relationship both pathways also implies increase effectively ∼1 yr−1 dec−1 pathways, even if trend continues increase. Previously proposed drivers, such growth rate CO2, explain specific periods, example, during exponential growth, but fail start decrease again. robust suggests very positive negative some highly unlikely around 2000 likely products.

Language: Английский

The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth DOI Creative Commons
William J. Ripple, Christopher Wolf,

Jillian W. Gregg

et al.

BioScience, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Oct. 8, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

57
Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future DOI Creative Commons
Charles H. Fletcher, William J. Ripple, Thomas M. Newsome

et al.

PNAS Nexus, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 3(4)

Published: March 28, 2024

Human development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth these interwoven emergencies underscores urgent need for comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, a surging population, we are speeding past Earth's material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, triggering irreversible changes biophysical systems that underpin Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences actions disproportionately borne vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine terrestrial biomes face tipping points, while escalating challenges to food water access foreshadow bleak outlook security. Against this backdrop Earth at risk, call response centered on decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, implementing regenerative practices natural resource management. We elimination detrimental subsidies, promotion equitable development, transformative financial support lower income nations. A paradigm shift must occur replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism economic model prioritizes sustainability, resilience, justice. advocate cultural elevates kinship nature communal well-being, underpinned recognition finite resources interconnectedness its inhabitants. imperative is clear: navigate away from precipice, collectively harness political will, resources, societal values steer toward future where progress does not come cost integrity social equity.

Language: Английский

Citations

40
2023: Weather and Climate Extremes Hitting the Globe with Emerging Features DOI Creative Commons
Wenxia Zhang, Robin Clark, Tianjun Zhou

et al.

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 41(6), P. 1001 - 1016

Published: April 17, 2024

Globally, 2023 was the warmest observed year on record since at least 1850 and, according to proxy evidence, possibly of past 100 000 years. As in recent years, warmth has again been accompanied with yet more extreme weather and climate events throughout world. Here, we provide an overview those 2023, details key background causes help build upon our understanding roles internal variability anthropogenic change. We also highlight emerging features associated some these events. Hot extremes are occurring earlier year, increasingly simultaneously differing parts world (e.g., concurrent hot Northern Hemisphere July 2023). Intense cyclones exacerbating precipitation North China flooding Libya September). Droughts regions California Horn Africa) have transitioned into flood conditions. Climate show increasing interactions ecosystems via wildfires Hawaii August Canada from spring autumn 2023) sandstorms Mongolia April Finally, consider challenges research that characteristics present for strategy practice adaptation.

Language: Английский

Citations

22
Ocean heat content in 2023 DOI Open Access
Lijing Cheng, Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(4), P. 232 - 234

Published: April 4, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

19
Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024 DOI Creative Commons
Lijing Cheng, John Abraham, Kevin E. Trenberth

et al.

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 10, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Climate-smart agriculture: Insights and challenges DOI Creative Commons

Yilai Lou,

Liangshan Feng, Wen Xing

et al.

Climate smart agriculture., Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 1(1), P. 100003 - 100003

Published: May 3, 2024

Agriculture, broadly defined to include crop and livestock production, forestry, aquaculture fishery, represents a key source or sink of greenhouse gas emissions. It is also vulnerable sector under climate change. The term climate-smart agriculture has been widely used since its inception in 2010, but no clear unified understanding scientific meaning exists. Here, we systematically analyzed the relationship between change interpreted definition agriculture. We believe that modern production approach coordinatively promote food security, mitigation benefits agricultural adaptation towards Sustainable Development Goals. In addition, due worsening global situation, expounded on urgency major challenges promoting

Language: Английский

Citations

13
2023 temperatures reflect steady global warming and internal sea surface temperature variability DOI Creative Commons
B. H. Samset, Marianne T. Lund, Jan S. Fuglestvedt

et al.

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: Aug. 27, 2024

2023 was the warmest year on record, influenced by multiple warm ocean basins. This has prompted speculation of an acceleration in surface warming, or a stronger than expected influence from loss aerosol induced cooling. Here we use recent Green's function-based method to quantify sea temperature patterns global anomaly, and compare them previous record years. We show that strong deviation warming trends is consistent with previously observed influences, regional forcing. indicates internal variability contributor exceptional evolution, combination steady anthropogenic warming. temperatures fall line historical trends, anomalies typical El Niño, indicating dominance forcing, according analysis for isolating contribution various

Language: Английский

Citations

12
Sea ice in 2023 DOI Open Access
Lettie A. Roach, Walter N. Meier

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(4), P. 235 - 237

Published: April 4, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

11
A Composite Tool for Forecasting El Niño: The Case of the 2023–2024 Event DOI Creative Commons
Costas A. Varotsos, N. V. Sarlis, Yuri Mazei

et al.

Forecasting, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6(1), P. 187 - 203

Published: March 7, 2024

Remotely sensed data play a crucial role in monitoring the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon occurring quasi-periodically with several impacts worldwide, such as specific biological and global climate responses. Since 1980, Earth has witnessed three strong ENSO events (1982–1983, 1997–1998, 2015–2016). In September 2022, La entered its third year was unlikely to continue through 2024. Instead, since forecasts have pointed transition from Neutral phase summer or late 2023. The onset of Niño occurred around April 2023, it anticipated by sophisticated models be event Northern Hemisphere winter (December 2023–February 2024). aim this study demonstrate ability combination two new methods improve accuracy above claim because apart anomalies, significantly Earth’s ecosystems human societies, regulating spread diseases insects (e.g., malaria dengue fever), influencing nutrients, phytoplankton biomass, primary productivity. This done exploring first previous major period January 1876–July Our calculations show that ongoing 2023–2024 will not strongest.

Language: Английский

Citations

10
Observational Assessment of Changes in Earth’s Energy Imbalance Since 2000 DOI Creative Commons
Norman G. Loeb, Seung‐Hee Ham, Richard P. Allan

et al.

Surveys in Geophysics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 45(6), P. 1757 - 1783

Published: May 7, 2024

Abstract Satellite observations from the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System show that energy imbalance has doubled 0.5 ± 0.2 Wm −2 during first 10 years of this century to 1.0 − 2 past decade. The increase is result a 0.9 0.3 absorbed solar radiation (ASR) partially offset by 0.4 0.25 in outgoing longwave (OLR). Despite marked differences ASR OLR trends hiatus (2000–2010), transition-to-El Niño (2010–2016) post-El (2016–2022) periods, net top-of-atmosphere flux (NET) remain within 0.1 per decade one another, implying steady acceleration climate warming. Northern southern hemisphere NET are consistent 0.06 0.31 due compensation between weak hemispheric trend opposite sign. We find large decreases stratocumulus middle clouds over sub-tropics low at mid-latitudes primary reasons for increasing northern (NH). These changes especially eastern Pacific Ocean, coincide with increases sea-surface temperature (SST). decrease cloud fraction higher SSTs NH lead significant cloud-free regions, which compensate increase. Decreases reflection weaker reduction low-cloud account hemisphere, while weak. Changes cover response SST imply feedback change yet contribution radiative forcing or internal variability cannot be ruled out.

Language: Английский

Citations

10