International Journal of Climatology,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
44(4), P. 1110 - 1134
Published: Feb. 1, 2024
Abstract
Historical
meteorological
droughts
are
analysed
over
the
Coordinated
Regional
Downscaling
Experiment‐Central
America,
Caribbean
and
Mexico
(CORDEX‐CAM)
domain
during
1981–2010,
with
particular
emphasis
on
North
American
monsoon
(NAM)
mid‐summer
drought
(MSD)
regions.
We
analyse
based
standardized
precipitation
index
(SPI‐12)
precipitation‐evapotranspiration
(SPEI‐12)
using
observations
from
CRU,
CHIRPS,
GPCP
ERA5‐Land
reanalysis
(ERA5),
assess
skill
of
regional
climate
model
RegCM4
(version
7)
at
25
km
resolution
driven
by
ERA‐Interim
(Reg‐ERA)
three
global
models
(Reg‐GCMs:
Reg‐Had,
Reg‐MPI
Reg‐GFDL).
Observational
data
sets
show
large
spatial
variations
in
frequency,
both
Reg‐ERA
Reg‐GCMs
have
difficulties
simulating
it.
s
positive
water
balance
biases
mountain
regions
negative
ones
Central
possibly
due
to
complex
terrain
poor
observational
coverage.
Despite
differences
among
observations,
trend
droughts,
duration
severity
consistent
dry
hot
spots
(regions
long‐duration
severe
droughts)
western
United
States,
States‐Mexico
border
region,
NAM,
Yucatan
Peninsula
northern
stronger
values
SPEI‐12
than
SPI‐12,
particularly
subtropical
ERA5
similar
patterns
relative
observations.
Reg‐Had
adequately
simulate
trend,
smaller
SPI‐12
SPEI‐12;
contrast,
Reg‐GFDL
overestimate
northwest
CAM.
Observations,
reanalysis,
capture
an
inverse
response
between
NAM
MSD
linked
teleconnections;
however,
a
signal
is
observed
which
appears
be
decadal
phases
Atlantic
Multidecadal
Oscillation
combined
La
Niña
conditions
(negative
El
Niño
1+2
phase).
Reviews of Geophysics,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
60(3)
Published: June 28, 2022
Abstract
Observation‐based
and
modeling
studies
have
identified
the
Eastern
Mediterranean
Middle
East
(EMME)
region
as
a
prominent
climate
change
hotspot.
While
several
initiatives
addressed
impacts
of
in
parts
EMME,
here
we
present
an
updated
assessment,
covering
wide
range
timescales,
phenomena
future
pathways.
Our
assessment
is
based
on
revised
analysis
recent
observations
projections
extensive
overview
scientific
literature
causes
effects
regional
change.
Greenhouse
gas
emissions
EMME
are
growing
rapidly,
surpassing
those
European
Union,
hence
contributing
significantly
to
Over
past
half‐century
especially
during
decades,
has
warmed
faster
than
other
inhabited
regions.
At
same
time,
changes
hydrological
cycle
become
evident.
The
observed
temperature
increase
about
0.45°C
per
decade
projected
continue,
although
strong
global
greenhouse
emission
reductions
could
moderate
this
trend.
In
addition
mean
conditions,
call
attention
extreme
weather
events
with
potentially
disruptive
societal
impacts.
These
include
strongly
increasing
severity
duration
heatwaves,
droughts
dust
storms,
well
torrential
rain
that
can
trigger
flash
floods.
review
complemented
by
discussion
atmospheric
pollution
land‐use
region,
including
urbanization,
desertification
forest
fires.
Finally,
identify
sectors
may
be
critically
affected
formulate
adaptation
research
recommendations
toward
greater
resilience
Climate Dynamics,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
57(11-12), P. 3135 - 3158
Published: June 30, 2021
Abstract
We
provide
an
assessment
of
future
daily
characteristics
African
precipitation
by
explicitly
comparing
the
results
large
ensembles
global
(CMIP5,
CMIP6)
and
regional
(CORDEX,
CORE)
climate
models,
specifically
highlighting
similarities
inconsistencies
between
them.
Results
for
seasonal
mean
are
not
always
consistent
amongst
ensembles:
in
particular,
models
tend
to
project
a
wetter
compared
especially
over
Eastern
Sahel,
Central
East
Africa.
However,
other
more
consistent.
In
general,
all
increase
maximum
intensity
during
wet
season
regions
emission
scenarios
(except
West
Sahel
decrease
frequency
(under
Representative
Concentration
Pathways
RCP8.5)
Atlas
region,
southern
central
Africa,
Africa
Depending
on
season,
length
dry
spells
is
projected
consistently
most
(if
all)
Ethiopian
highlands
region.
Discrepancies
exist
change
specific
seasons.
For
instance,
July–August
show
but
robust
decrease.
Global
also
opposite
sign
spells.
CORE
marked
drying
affected
monsoon
throughout
year,
accompanied
May
July
that
present
ensembles.
This
enhanced
may
be
related
physical
mechanisms
better
resolved
higher
resolution
highlights
importance
process-based
evaluation
controlling
Climate Dynamics,
Journal Year:
2020,
Volume and Issue:
unknown
Published: Nov. 9, 2020
Abstract
The
new
Coordinated
Output
for
Regional
Evaluations
(CORDEX-CORE)
ensemble
provides
high-resolution,
consistent
regional
climate
change
projections
the
major
inhabited
areas
of
world.
It
serves
as
a
solid
scientific
basis
further
research
related
to
vulnerability,
impact,
adaptation
and
services
in
addition
existing
CORDEX
simulations.
aim
this
study
is
investigate
document
information
provided
by
CORDEX-CORE
simulation
ensemble,
part
World
Climate
Research
Programme
(WCRP)
community.
An
overview
annual
monthly
mean
selected
regions
different
domains
presented
temperature
precipitation,
providing
foundation
detailed
follow-up
studies
applications.
Initially,
two
models
(RCMs),
REMO
RegCM
were
used
downscale
global
model
output.
driving
simulations
AR5
(AR5-GCMs)
cover
spread
high,
medium,
low
equilibrium
sensitivity
at
scale.
has
doubled
spatial
resolution
compared
previously
most
(25
$$\,\mathrm
{km}$$
km
(0.22
$$^{\circ
}$$
xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML">∘
)
versus
50
(0.44
))
leading
potentially
improved
representation
of,
e.g.,
physical
processes
RCMs.
analysis
focuses
on
changes
IPCC
reference
regions.
results
show
general
reasonable
precipitation
signals
AR5-GCMs
investigated
all
mostly
covering
interquartile
range
signals.
simulated
follow
AR5-GCMs,
although
specific
they
course
year
especially
RCP8.5,
which
needs
be
region
process
studies.
International Journal of Climatology,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
42(8), P. 4258 - 4272
Published: Nov. 19, 2021
Abstract
The
selection
of
global
climate
models
(GCMs)
is
a
major
challenge
for
reliable
projection
climate.
A
novel
method
introduced
in
this
study
to
select
couple
model
intercomparison
project
phase
6
(CMIP6)
GCMs.
Climatology
maps
GCM
simulated
precipitation,
maximum
temperature
and
minimum
data
were
rasterized
form
8‐bit
grey
scale
images,
which
subsequently
merged
colour
image.
GCMs'
climatology
images
compared
with
the
image
prepared
using
gridded
their
performance
assessment.
This
allowed
an
unbiased
comparison
GCMs
according
ability
reconstruct
three
variables'
climatology.
proposed
was
employed
CMIP6
selections
Egypt
different
shared
socioeconomic
pathway
(SSP)
scenarios.
recognized
four
suitable
projections
Egypt,
ACCESS‐CM2,
AWI‐CM‐1‐1‐MR,
BCC‐CSM2‐MR
MRI‐ESM2‐0.
selected
models'
biases
simulating
precipitation
showed
consistent
results,
underestimating
north
overestimating
south
rainfall.
However,
considerable
inconsistency.
Overall,
results
indicated
possible
decrease
annual
winter
range
0
−50%
high
rainfall
regions
large
increase
low
(~5
mm)
region
south.
zone
gradual
expansion
SSPs
time.
higher
south,
particularly
southeast
(>6°C
far
future)
least
northern
coastal
zone.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
103(2), P. E293 - E310
Published: Oct. 4, 2021
Abstract
We
describe
the
first
effort
within
Coordinated
Regional
Climate
Downscaling
Experiment–Coordinated
Output
for
Evaluation,
or
CORDEX-CORE
EXP-I.
It
consists
of
a
set
twenty-first-century
projections
with
two
regional
climate
models
(RCMs)
downscaling
three
global
model
(GCM)
simulations
from
CMIP5
program,
greenhouse
gas
concentration
pathways
(RCP8.5
and
RCP2.6),
over
nine
CORDEX
domains
at
∼25-km
grid
spacing.
Illustrative
examples
initial
analysis
this
ensemble
are
presented,
covering
wide
range
topics,
such
as
added
value
RCM
nesting,
extreme
indices,
tropical
extratropical
storms,
monsoons,
ENSO,
severe
storm
environments,
emergence
change
signals,
energy
production.
They
show
that
EXP-I
can
provide
downscaled
information
unprecedented
comprehensiveness
to
increase
understanding
processes
relevant
impacts,
assess
RCMs.
The
dataset,
which
will
be
incrementally
augmented
new
simulations,
is
intended
public
resource
available
scientific
end-user
communities
application
process
studies,
impacts
on
different
socioeconomic
sectors,
service
activities.
future
initiative
also
discussed.
Geophysical Research Letters,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
49(15)
Published: July 21, 2022
Abstract
A
warmer
climate
impacts
streamflows
and
these
changes
need
to
be
quantified
assess
future
risk,
vulnerability,
implement
efficient
adaptation
measures.
The
simulations
from
the
fifth
phase
of
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
(CMIP5),
which
have
been
basis
most
such
assessments
over
past
decade,
are
being
gradually
superseded
by
more
recent
Phase
6
(CMIP6).
Our
study
portrays
added
value
CMIP6
ensemble
CMIP5
in
a
first
North
America
wide
comparison
using
3,107
catchments.
Results
show
reduced
spread
compared
for
temperature
precipitation
projections.
In
terms
flow
indicators,
driven
hydrological
projections
result
smaller
mean
high
values,
except
mountainous
areas.
Overall,
we
that
provides
narrower
band
uncertainty
projections,
bringing
confidence
impact
studies.
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
128(6)
Published: March 14, 2023
Abstract
We
introduce
the
latest
version
of
RegCM
regional
climate
modeling
system,
RegCM5.
Compared
to
previous
model
(RegCM4)
main
new
development
is
inclusion
non‐hydrostatic
dynamical
core
from
weather
prediction
MOLOCH,
which
more
accurate
and
much
computationally
stable
efficient
than
one.
In
particular,
best
designed
for
use
at
convection‐permitting
resolutions
a
few
km.
Several
physics
schemes
coupled
components
have
also
been
upgraded
compared
model.
A
set
test
simulations
present
day
conditions
parameterized
convection
permitting
over
different
European
domains
presented
illustrative
purposes.
Overall,
these
RegCM5
exhibits
better
performance
RegCM4
majority
statistics
analyzed,
especially
resolutions.
However,
this
depends
on
used,
further
optimization
work
under
way
fully
in
settings
reduce
current
biases.
freely
available,
efficient,
flexible,
portable
Regional
Earth
System
community
use,
so
that
prospective
users
are
welcome
access
its
code
it
applications.
