The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(1)

Published: Aug. 11, 2022

Abstract In recent decades, the warming in Arctic has been much faster than rest of world, a phenomenon known as amplification. Numerous studies report that is either twice, more or even three times fast globe on average. Here we show, by using several observational datasets which cover region, during last 43 years nearly four globe, higher ratio generally reported literature. We compared observed amplification with simulated state-of-the-art climate models, and found four-fold over 1979–2021 an extremely rare occasion model simulations. The ratios are consistent each other if calculated longer period; however comparison obscured uncertainties before 1979. Our results indicate unlikely event, models systematically tend to underestimate

Language: Английский

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Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large‐Scale Patterns of Recent Sea‐Surface Temperature and Sea‐Level Pressure Change

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 49(17)

Published: Sept. 1, 2022

Abstract Observed surface temperature trends over recent decades are characterized by (a) intensified warming in the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool and slight cooling eastern equatorial Pacific, consistent with Walker circulation strengthening, (b) Southern Ocean cooling. In contrast, state‐of‐the‐art coupled climate models generally project enhanced weakening, warming. Here we investigate ability of 16 model large ensembles to reproduce observed sea‐surface sea‐level pressure 1979–2020 through a combination externally forced change internal variability. We find large‐scale differences between modeled that very unlikely (<5% probability) occur due variability as represented models. Disparate ratio tropical‐mean warming, which shows little multi‐decadal models, hint biases response historical forcing constitute part discrepancy.

Language: Английский

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Marine high temperature extremes amplify the impacts of climate change on fish and fisheries

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 7(40)

Published: Oct. 1, 2021

Extreme temperature events have occurred in all ocean basins the past two decades with detrimental impacts on marine biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and services. However, global of extremes fish stocks, fisheries, dependent people not been quantified. Using an integrated climate-biodiversity-fisheries-economic impact model, we project that, average, when annual high extreme occurs exclusive economic zone, 77% exploited fishes invertebrates therein will decrease biomass while maximum catch potential drop by 6%, adding to decadal-scale mean under climate change. The net negative stocks are projected cause losses fisheries revenues livelihoods most maritime countries, creating shocks social-ecological systems particularly climate-vulnerable areas. Our study highlights need for rapid adaptation responses temperatures addition carbon mitigation support sustainable development.

Language: Английский

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The Recent Emergence of Arctic Amplification

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 48(15)

Published: July 21, 2021

Abstract Arctic Amplification is robustly seen in climate model simulations of future warming and the paleoclimate record. Here, we focus on past century observations. We show that only a recent phenomenon, for much this period cooled while global‐mean temperature rose. To investigate why occurred, analyze large ensembles comprehensive under different forcing scenarios. Our results suggest global from greenhouse gases was largely offset by regional cooling due to aerosols, with internal variability also contributing trends during period. This suggests disruption combination factors unique 20th century, enhanced should be expected consistent feature change over coming century.

Language: Английский

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Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: April 14, 2023

Societally relevant weather impacts typically result from compound events, which are rare combinations of and climate drivers. Focussing on four event types arising different variables across space time, here we illustrate that robust analyses events - such as frequency uncertainty analysis under present-day future conditions, attribution to change, exploration low-probability-high-impact require data with very large sample size. In particular, the required is much larger than needed for univariate extremes. We demonstrate Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) simulations multiple models, provide hundreds thousands years crucial advancing our assessments constructing model projections. Combining SMILEs an improved physical understanding will ultimately practitioners stakeholders best available information risks.

Language: Английский

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The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 23(5), P. 1699 - 1718

Published: May 8, 2023

Abstract. The summer of 2018 was an extraordinary season in climatological terms for northern and central Europe, bringing simultaneous, widespread, concurrent heat drought extremes large parts the continent with extensive impacts on agriculture, forests, water supply, socio-economic sector. Here, we present a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis extreme particular focus Germany. heatwave first affected Scandinavia mid-July shifted towards Europe late July, while Iberia primarily early August. atmospheric circulation characterized by strongly positive blocking anomalies over combination North Atlantic Oscillation double jet stream configuration before initiation heatwave. In possible precursors common to previous European heatwaves, Eurasian double-jet structure tripolar sea surface temperature anomaly were already identified spring. While stages air masses at mid upper levels often remote, maritime origin, later had local-to-regional origin. Germany most, starting warmer than average conditions spring, associated enhanced latent release that initiated severe depletion soil moisture. During summer, continued precipitation deficit exacerbated problem, leading hydrological agricultural drought. A probabilistic attribution assessment showed such events prolonged have become more likely due anthropogenic global warming. Regarding future projections, as is expected occur every 2 out 3 years +1.5 ∘C world virtually single year +2 world. With large-scale impactful becoming frequent intense under climate change, comprehensive studies like one presented here quantify multitude their effects provide valuable information basis adaptation mitigation strategies.

Language: Английский

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Recent pronounced warming on the Mongolian Plateau boosted by internal climate variability

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 17(3), P. 181 - 188

Published: Feb. 14, 2024

Language: Английский

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Hot Spots and Climate Trends of Meteorological Droughts in Europe–Assessing the Percent of Normal Index in a Single-Model Initial-Condition Large Ensemble

Frontiers in Water, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 3

Published: Sept. 7, 2021

Drought, caused by a prolonged deficit of precipitation, bears the risk severe economic and ecological consequences for affected societies. The occurrence this significant hydro-meteorological hazard is expected to strongly increase in many regions due climate change, however, it also subject high internal variability. This calls an assessment trends hot spots that considers variations In study, percent normal index (PNI), describes meteorological droughts deviation long-term reference mean, analyzed single-model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) Canadian regional model version 5 (CRCM5) over Europe. A far future horizon under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 compared present-day pre-industrial reference, which derived from pi-control runs CRCM5 representing counterfactual world without anthropogenic change. Our analysis SMILE reveals variability drought Considering variability, our results show clear overall duration, number intensity toward horizon. We furthermore find strong seasonal divergence with distinct summer decrease winter most regions. Additionally, percentage followed wet winters increasing all except Iberian Peninsula. Because particularly drying trends, Alps, Mediterranean, France Peninsula are suggested be considered as spots. Due simplicity intuitivity PNI, appropriate region-specific communication purposes outreach.

Language: Английский

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Attributing Compound Events to Anthropogenic Climate Change

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 103(3), P. E936 - E953

Published: Sept. 15, 2021

Extreme event attribution answers the question of whether and by how much anthropogenic climate change has contributed to occurrence or magnitude an extreme weather event. It is also used link impacts change. Impacts, however, are often related multiple compounding drivers. Because typically focuses on univariate assessments, these assessments might only provide a partial answer influence high-impact We present theoretical extension classical for certain types compound events. Based synthetic data, we illustrate bivariate fraction attributable risk (FAR) differs from FAR depending extremeness as well trends in dependence between contributing variables. Overall, similar smaller than if trend second variable comparably weak both variables moderate high, typical situation temporally co-occurring heat waves droughts. If have similarly large weak, FARs larger likely more adequate quantification influence. Using model ensembles, apply framework two case studies, recent sequence hot dry years Western Cape region South Africa spatially droughts crop-producing regions Lesotho.

Language: Английский

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Increasing spatiotemporal proximity of heat and precipitation extremes in a warming world quantified by a large model ensemble

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 17(3), P. 035005 - 035005

Published: Feb. 21, 2022

Abstract Increases in climate hazards and their impacts mark one of the major challenges change. Situations which occur close enough to another result amplified impacts, because systems are insufficiently resilient or themselves made more severe, special concern. We consider projected changes such compounding using Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble under a moderate (RCP4.5) emissions scenario, produces warming about 2.25 °C between pre-industrial (1851–1880) 2100. find that extreme heat events occurring on three consecutive days increase frequency by 100%–300%, precipitation most regions, nearly doubling for some. The chance concurrent drought leading simultaneous maize failures breadbasket regions approximately doubles, while interannual wet-dry oscillations become at least 20% likely across much subtropics. Our results highlight importance taking extremes into account when looking possible tipping points socio-environmental systems.

Language: Английский

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