Increased Population Exposure to Heat and Wet Extremes Moving From Chinese to Global 1.5 or 2.0°C Warming DOI
Peihua Qin, Zhenghui Xie

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 128(21)

Published: Oct. 27, 2023

Abstract The Paris Agreement proposed two global warming levels relative to the preindustrial period, with ideal objective of 1.5°C and an upper boundary 2.0 °C. However, years when temperature will first reach 1.5 or 2.0°C vary in different regions. Therefore, climate extremes their population exposure are still not clear at regional levels. This study investigated China Chinese 16 CMIP6 models under middle SSP245 scenario. In China, year is projected occur 2020 2035 for warming. These values more than 10 earlier corresponding 2030 2049. Population percentile‐based heat greatly increase those occurs due increases extremes, absolute extreme indices decrease from joint impacts decreases. Furthermore, warming, about 344 million people experience increased heat, wet dry around 468 371 be affected by heat–wet heat–dry respectively. Thus, a adaptive strategy should cope future possible natural hazards caused extremes.

Language: Английский

Global increase in future compound heat stress-heavy precipitation hazards and associated socio-ecosystem risks DOI Creative Commons
Zhiling Zhou, Liping Zhang, Qin Zhang

et al.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(1)

Published: Jan. 31, 2024

Abstract Compound extremes of lethal heat stress-heavy precipitation events (CHPEs) seriously threaten social and ecological sustainability, while their evolution effects at the global scale under climate warming remain unclear. Here we develop picture projected changes in CHPEs various scenarios investigate socioeconomic ecosystem risks combining hazard, exposure, vulnerability through composite indicator approach. We find a high percentage stress is followed by heavy precipitation, probably driven atmospheric conditions. Global average frequency intensity are to increase future high-emission scenarios. Joint return periods decrease globally, predominantly extremes. In long-term future, over half population, gross domestic product, primary productivity may face risk most regions, with developed regions facing highest SSP5-8.5 developing SSP3-7.0.

Language: Английский

Citations

13
Comparative analysis of high-resolution CMIP6 GCM and CMIP5 RCM: unveiling biases and advancements in simulating compound extreme events in China DOI

Liren Wang,

Jinxin Zhu, Dagang Wang

et al.

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 63(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Regional Water Environmental Carrying Capacity: Changing Trends and Direction, Obstacle Factors, and Implications DOI
Xi Yang, Zhihe Chen, Zhen Li

et al.

Water Resources Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 38(9), P. 3215 - 3234

Published: March 9, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Projections of compound wet-warm and dry-warm extreme events in summer over China DOI
Rudong Zhao, Xiong Zhou, Jian Liu

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 639, P. 131635 - 131635

Published: July 9, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Refined assessment of space-time changes, influencing factors and socio-economic impacts of the terrestrial ecosystem quality: A case study of the GBA DOI Creative Commons
Youyue Wen, Jian Yang, Weilin Liao

et al.

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 345, P. 118869 - 118869

Published: Sept. 8, 2023

The terrestrial ecosystem is the cradle of energy and material basis for human survival development. However, there are large research deficits in accurately finely depicting quality (QTE) assessing its changing triggers' contribution. Here, we summarized three major principles selecting image sources remote sensing data fusion. A continuous 30-m net vegetation productivity (NPP) dataset during 2000-2019 Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) was derived by using Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach model pre-fused normalized difference index. factors' contributions to QTE changes were quantitatively assessed. role affecting socio-economic behind mechanisms investigated. results showed that: (1) High-quality images preference spatio-temporal fusion data. Images with close month, same season year, sensors should be then selected. different similar spectral bandwidth, ones from adjacent years seasons, can alternately considered. (2) Fine-resolution NPP has higher accuracy than coarse-resolution marked advantages characterizing QTE. In past 20 years, GBA shown a fluctuating increasing trend (0.20 Tg C/yr). (3) Human activities contributed 54.19% GBA, dominates central rapidly urbanizing areas. Residual factors accounted an overall contribution ratio 35.71%. Climate change dominants peripheral forest variations GBA. (4) improvement significant positive impact, it contributes GDP increment firstly aggregate indirectly. Our highlight that great urgent estimate long-term high resolution globally. Controlling strategies implemented reduce factitious impacts on High level ecological environmental protection promotes sustainable

Language: Английский

Citations

12
Amplifying population exposure of extreme precipitation across Yellow River Basin, China at 1.5° C, 2.0° C and 3.0° C global warming DOI
Rui Yao, Zice Ma, Peng Sun

et al.

Natural Hazards, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 10, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Marine Heatwaves and Associated Rainfall Over the East China Sea Simulated Using a Convection-Permitting Regional Air–Sea Coupled Model DOI
Zhiyu Jiang, Jianping Tang, Shuguang Wang

et al.

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Investigating Spatial Variations of Compound Heat–Precipitation Events in Guangdong, China through a Convection-Permitting Model DOI Creative Commons

Tingan Zhu,

Wei Zhang, Jun Wang

et al.

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(19), P. 4745 - 4745

Published: Sept. 28, 2023

Compound heat–precipitation events exert significant impacts on severe weather occurrences. Intense vertical air movement, driving vigorous convection, primarily contributes to the formation of extreme precipitation. Nevertheless, such compound events’ temporal and spatial variation patterns at convection-permitting resolutions remain inadequately explored. This study assesses performance Convection-Permitting Model (CPM) against a model convection parameterization while investigating dynamics in Guangdong, China. Our findings indicate that CPM exhibits heightened reliability precision simulating temperature precipitation patterns, especially simulation, which would be highly underestimated without process. Projections from reveal that, across historical future periods, occurrence frequency fraction T-P (instances heat followed by precipitation) surpass those P-T (occurrences heat). For events, better capability capturing high-frequency areas, whereas results relatively low-resolution show less distinct variations. Both types exhibit noticeable upward trends yearly within each period. By close this century, provincial average is anticipated decrease 20.32 times 14.55 times. In contrast, projected increase 87.7 101.38 These changes underscore shifting region.

Language: Английский

Citations

5
A New Method to Identify the Maximum Time Interval between Individual Events in Compound Rainstorm and Heatwave Events DOI Creative Commons
Junlin Zhang, Wei Xu, Yu Qiao

et al.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(3), P. 453 - 466

Published: June 1, 2024

Abstract Growing evidence indicates that extreme heat and rain may occur in succession within short time periods cause greater impacts than individual events separated space. Therefore, many studies have examined the of compound hazard on social-ecological system at various scales. The definition is fundamental for such research. However, there are no existing support determination interval between a rainstorm heatwave (CRH) event, which consists two or more potentially qualifying component events. To address deficiency defining what can constitute CRH this study proposed novel method to determine maximum through change event frequency with increasing events, using southern China as case study. results show threshold identified by reasonable. For 90% meteorological stations, has reached when less equal threshold. This aid selection, an important step subsequent

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Trend, driving factors, and temperature-humidity relationship of the extreme compound hot and humid events in South China DOI
Nan Qiao, Yixing Yin, Peng Zhang

et al.

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 155(5), P. 4213 - 4230

Published: Feb. 14, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

0