Extreme Mediterranean cyclones and associated variables in an atmosphere-only vs an ocean-coupled regional model DOI Creative Commons
Marco Chericoni, Giorgia Fosser, Emmanouil Flaounas

et al.

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: June 14, 2024

Abstract Complex air-sea interactions play a major role in both the variability and extremes of Mediterranean climate. This study investigates differences between an atmosphere-only ocean-coupled model reproducing cyclones their associated atmospheric fields. To this end, two simulations are performed using ENEA-REG regional Earth system at 12 km horizontal resolution over Med-CORDEX domain, driven by ERA5 reanalysis, for common 33-year period (1982–2014). The atmosphere stand-alone simulation uses WRF with prescribed SST, while second is coupled to MITgcm ocean 1/12°. A cyclone track method, based on sea level pressure, applied reanalysis assess capability reproduce climatology intense, potentially most impactful, cyclones. Results show that seasonal spatial distribution 500 intense similarly reproduced ERA5, regardless use coupling. then compared terms sub-daily fields cyclones' maximum intensity. Differences SST models primarily control variations variables throughout boundary layer. Additionally, research effects properties simulation, revealing strong winds enhance surface heat fluxes upper mixing, lowering SST. analysis shows effectiveness representing dynamic thermodynamic processes extreme across ocean.

Language: Английский

Climate projections of the Adriatic Sea: role of river release DOI Creative Commons
Giorgia Verri, Luca Furnari, Murat Gündüz

et al.

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: April 29, 2024

The Adriatic Sea, characterized by unique local features in comparison to the broader Mediterranean stands out as a highly susceptible region climate change. In this context, our study involves focused downscaling approach, concentrating on water cycle. This encompasses integrated modeling at mesoscale, covering atmosphere, hydrology, and marine general circulation. period spans from 1992 2050, considering high emission scenario RCP8.5. We aim evaluating how river release projection affects density stratification sea level rise. Indeed, is found decrease approximately 35% mid-term future condition of column with differences between Northern Southern sub-basins. projected runoff has major impact sub-basin, where haline-dominated foreseen salinization prevails heating through whole column. Conversely, lower changes other mechanisms may play role, e.g., changing properties entering Otranto Strait intermediate deep provides first evidence decreasing discharge locally reduces stratification, increases dense water, mitigates rise thus acting opposite direction global warming. To minimize uncertainty coastal ocean projections around world, it essential that integrates high-resolution hydrology hydrodynamics models correctly reproduce link surface buoyancy resulting dynamics.

Language: Английский

Citations

17
Evolution of Coastal Environments under Inundation Scenarios Using an Oceanographic Model and Remote Sensing Data DOI Creative Commons
Sergio Cappucci, Adriana Carillo, R. Iacono

et al.

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(14), P. 2599 - 2599

Published: July 16, 2024

A new methodology to map Italian coastal areas at risk of flooding is presented. This approach relies on detailed projections the future sea level from a high-resolution, three-dimensional model Mediterranean Sea circulation, best available digital terrain coasts, and most advanced satellite-derived data ground motion, provided by European Ground Motion Service Copernicus. To obtain reliable understanding evolution, estimates vertical motion based currently were combined spread over model, using GIS-based specifically developed for this work. The plains Piombino-Follonica Marina di Campo (Tuscany Region), Alghero-Fertilia (Sardinia), Rome Latina-Sabaudia (Lazio Region) selected as test cases approach. These stretches are important ecosystems economic activities they host relatively stable geological point view. Flood maps constructed these areas, reference periods 2010–2040, 2040–2070, 2040–2099. Where possible, compared with previous results, highlighting differences that mainly due more refined resolved sea-level projection Copernicus data. Coastal was simulated “bathtub” without considering morphodynamic processes induced waves currents during inundation process. zone represented water raised DTM, selecting all vulnerable below predicted level. Consequent related exposed asset.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Dynamical Downscaling Projections of Mean and Extreme Climate over the Tibetan Plateau under 2 SSP scenarios DOI Creative Commons
Jiewei Zhou, Jianbin Huang, Yao Yao

et al.

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 100747 - 100747

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Effects of the Grid Spacing and Background Wind on the Daily Air‐Sea Coupling Over the Mediterranean Sea in HighResMIP DOI Creative Commons
Alok Kumar Mishra, Agostino N. Meroni, Ehud Strobach

et al.

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(5)

Published: Feb. 26, 2025

Abstract This study delves into the nuanced dynamics of daily air‐sea coupling across varying grid spacing over Mediterranean Sea. Two fundamental thermal feedback mechanisms namely downward momentum mixing (DMM) and pressure adjustment (PA), are investigated using High‐Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) model data at different oceanic atmospheric resolution during 1990–2014. Most models show a stronger PA weaker DMM with respect to satellite observations, which found increase increased spacing, considerable intermodel variability. The ECMWF MR shows highest skill in simulating PA, while CMCC VHR DMM. investigation uncovers background wind speed‐dependent variations coupling. is maximum for intermediate speed, minimum speed. Seasonality strength also detected data, it seems be controlled by large‐scale opposite what observations. This, together fact that simulations identical resolutions exhibit significant disparities strength, underscore critical gap skills global coupled goes beyond use high involves role physics, such as convection boundary layer schemes.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Unravelling drivers of the future Mediterranean precipitation paradox during cyclones DOI Creative Commons
Marco Chericoni, Giorgia Fosser, Alessandro Anav

et al.

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 17, 2025

Climate models indicate that the Mediterranean region is projected to experience both general drying and increased cyclone-related precipitation, intensifying flood risks, especially under high-emission scenarios. The use of high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled climate allows identify key role moisture advection convection processes in precipitation thanks more realistic representation ocean dynamics air-sea interactions, low-resolution global struggle capture.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Estimation of plant pollution removal capacity based on intensive air quality measurements DOI
Luminița Mărmureanu, Ștefan Leca, Diana Pitar

et al.

Environmental Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 261, P. 119703 - 119703

Published: Aug. 6, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Response of the Mediterranean Sea Surface Circulation at Various Global Warming Levels: A Multi‐Model Approach DOI Creative Commons
Iván Manuel Parras Berrocal, Robin Waldman, Florence Sevault

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51(24)

Published: Dec. 22, 2024

Abstract Changes in Mediterranean circulation patterns due to global warming may have strong socio‐economic and environmental impacts. We analyze the future evolution of surface under different levels by using 28 multi‐decadal simulations from a set fully coupled high‐resolution regional climate models Med‐CORDEX multi‐model initiative. There is no model agreement for significant basin‐scale modification circulation. However robust local changes are identified. In particular, expected shift cyclonic predominantly anticyclonic northern Balearic, while strengthening southern Adriatic. Furthermore, our results show an increase variability primarily associated with general meso‐scale activity. Generally, we find linear identified levels.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
A non-stationary bias adjustment method for improving the inter-annual variability and persistence of projected precipitation DOI Creative Commons
Marina Cantalejo, Manuel Cobos, Agustín Millares

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Oct. 29, 2024

Hydrological studies depend heavily on environmental variables, such as precipitation and resulting runoff, which exhibit highly seasonal intermittent behaviour in semiarid basins. In these basins, the use of traditional methods to adjust biases time series projections can lead inaccurate results regarding impacts climate change. This study introduces a non-stationary bias adjustment methodology (NS) specifically designed for variables characterized by sporadic events substantial intensity variability, precipitation. The involves establishing probability threshold adapt occurrence utilizes quantile mapping method based theoretical parametric distribution associated with intensity. NS is applied daily from seven regional climatic models under RCP 8.5 scenario spanning 2006–2100, alongside historical concurrent data 1970 2005. present compared widely used delta approach (QDM), revealing significant differences performance related throughout year mean extreme values. Both approaches show reliable performance, root square errors between empirical functions corrected hindcast observations being lower than or close 1 mm percentiles smaller 50th. error increases percentiles, particularly at stations located higher altitudes. locations, QDM doubles triples obtained 75th, reaching up 34 mm. proposed demonstrates promising potential reducing uncertainties systematic inter-annual variability. It first step jointly apply similar all involved driving variables. Such are key assessing hydrological responses semi-arid mountainous basins around Globe.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Extreme Mediterranean cyclones and associated variables in an atmosphere-only vs an ocean-coupled regional model DOI Creative Commons
Marco Chericoni, Giorgia Fosser, Emmanouil Flaounas

et al.

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: June 14, 2024

Abstract Complex air-sea interactions play a major role in both the variability and extremes of Mediterranean climate. This study investigates differences between an atmosphere-only ocean-coupled model reproducing cyclones their associated atmospheric fields. To this end, two simulations are performed using ENEA-REG regional Earth system at 12 km horizontal resolution over Med-CORDEX domain, driven by ERA5 reanalysis, for common 33-year period (1982–2014). The atmosphere stand-alone simulation uses WRF with prescribed SST, while second is coupled to MITgcm ocean 1/12°. A cyclone track method, based on sea level pressure, applied reanalysis assess capability reproduce climatology intense, potentially most impactful, cyclones. Results show that seasonal spatial distribution 500 intense similarly reproduced ERA5, regardless use coupling. then compared terms sub-daily fields cyclones' maximum intensity. Differences SST models primarily control variations variables throughout boundary layer. Additionally, research effects properties simulation, revealing strong winds enhance surface heat fluxes upper mixing, lowering SST. analysis shows effectiveness representing dynamic thermodynamic processes extreme across ocean.

Language: Английский

Citations

0