Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 60(3)

Published: June 28, 2022

Abstract Observation‐based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives addressed impacts of in parts EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering wide range timescales, phenomena future pathways. Our assessment is based on revised analysis recent observations projections extensive overview scientific literature causes effects regional change. Greenhouse gas emissions EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those European Union, hence contributing significantly to Over past half‐century especially during decades, has warmed faster than other inhabited regions. At same time, changes hydrological cycle become evident. The observed temperature increase about 0.45°C per decade projected continue, although strong global greenhouse emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition mean conditions, call attention extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include strongly increasing severity duration heatwaves, droughts dust storms, well torrential rain that can trigger flash floods. review complemented by discussion atmospheric pollution land‐use region, including urbanization, desertification forest fires. Finally, identify sectors may be critically affected formulate adaptation research recommendations toward greater resilience

Language: Английский

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The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1), P. 321 - 340

Published: Feb. 8, 2022

Abstract. The enhanced warming trend and precipitation decline in the Mediterranean region make it a climate change hotspot. We compare projections of multiple Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) 6 (CMIP6) historical future scenario simulations to quantify impacts already changing region. In particular, we investigate changes temperature during 21st century following scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 RCP8.5 for CMIP5 SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 from CMIP6, as well HighResMIP high-resolution experiments. A model weighting scheme is applied obtain constrained estimates projected changes, which accounts performance inter-independence multi-model ensembles, using an observational ensemble reference. Results indicate robust significant over all seasons, ensembles vary between CMIPs, CMIP6 being that projects stronger warming. amplified with respect global mean mainly found summer. summer season can span 1.83 8.49 ∘C 1.22 6.63 considering three different 50 % inter-model spread by end century. Contrarily projections, show greater uncertainties spatial heterogeneity. However, large parts high emission (−49 −16 −47 −22 CMIP5). While there less disagreement than latter shows larger declines some regions. obtained trends weaker thereby reducing difference means 1.32 before 0.68 after weighting.

Language: Английский

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Revisiting future extreme precipitation trends in the Mediterranean

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 34, P. 100380 - 100380

Published: Aug. 26, 2021

Global warming is anticipated to intensify the hydrological cycle. However, this neither expected be globally uniform nor relationship between temperature increase and rainfall intensities linear. The objective of study assess changes in annual extremes, total precipitation, their larger Mediterranean region. We use an up-to-date ensemble 33 regional climate simulations from EURO-CORDEX initiative at 0.11° resolution. analyse significance trends for 1951-2000 2001-2100 under a 'business-as-usual' pathway (RCP8.5). Our future projections indicate strong north/south gradient, with significant, decreasing magnitude daily precipitation extremes south Maghreb region (up -10 mm/decade) less profound, increasing north. Despite contrasting trends, 50-year are projected strongly 100%) throughout 100-year derived traditional extreme value approaches simulations, underestimate these events by 30% drier areas (200-500 mm average rainfall) up 20-30% wetter parts These can occur any time location. contribution wettest day per year (5-30%) reductions mean drier, southern eastern will amplify challenges water resource management.

Language: Английский

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Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 4(1)

Published: March 23, 2021

Abstract Global climate projections suggest a significant intensification of summer heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To assess regional impacts, underpin mitigation adaptation measures, robust information is required from downscaling studies, which has been lacking for region. Here, we project future hot spells by using Heat Wave Magnitude Index comprehensive ensemble MENA. Our results, business-as-usual pathway, indicate that second half this century unprecedented super- ultra-extreme heatwave conditions will emerge. These events involve excessively high temperatures (up to 56 °C higher) be extended duration (several weeks), being potentially life-threatening humans. By end century, about MENA population (approximately 600 million) could exposed annually recurring heatwaves. It expected vast majority (>90%) live urban centers, who would need cope with these societally disruptive weather conditions.

Language: Английский

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Extreme weather and societal impacts in the eastern Mediterranean

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(2), P. 749 - 777

Published: April 11, 2022

Abstract. Gaining a holistic understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to impacts on society and ecosystems, is key supporting future risk reduction preparedness measures. Here, we provide an overview the state art, knowledge gaps open questions in study weather events over vulnerable eastern Mediterranean. This region situated transition zone between subtropical mid-latitude climates. The large-scale atmospheric circulation interaction with regional synoptic systems (i.e., Cyprus Lows, Red Sea Troughs, Persian “Sharav” Lows) high-pressure mainly govern weather. Complex orographic features further play important role generation Most events, including heavy precipitation, cold spells, floods windstorms, are associated Lows or active whereas heat waves related either Troughs sub-tropical summer Sharav Low during springtime. In decades, droughts projected significantly increase both frequency intensity. Changes precipitation may vary sign magnitude depending scale, severity interest. There still relatively large uncertainties concerning changes windstorms compound extremes, as these types received comparatively little attention literature. We identify that relate societal These effects have mortality, morbidity infrastructure Research currently limited this context, recommend strengthening database analyzed case studies. trust can only be suitably accomplished by inter-disciplinary international collaboration (in spite political unrest).

Language: Английский

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Climate Change over the Mediterranean Region: Local Temperature and Precipitation Variations at Five Pilot Sites

Water, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(16), P. 2499 - 2499

Published: Aug. 13, 2022

The Mediterranean region is one of the most responsive areas to climate change and was identified as a major “hot-spot” based on global analyses. This study provides insight into local changes in under scope InTheMED project, which part PRIMA programme. Precipitation temperature were analyzed an historical period until end this century for five pilot sites, located between two shores region. We used ensemble 17 Regional Climate Models, developed framework EURO-CORDEX initiative, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 RCP8.5). Over period, presents upward trends, are statistically significant some while precipitation does not show tendencies. These trends will be maintained future predicted by models projections: all indicate progressive robust warming moderate total annual precipitation, but seasonal variations identified. Future droughts events over studied considering maximum duration heat waves, their peak temperature, number consecutive dry days. All sites expected increase waves temperature. Furthermore, days areas.

Language: Английский

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Drivers of accelerated warming in Mediterranean climate-type regions

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: July 20, 2023

Abstract The near-surface temperature in Mediterranean climate-type regions has increased overall similarly or more rapidly than the global mean rates. Although these have comparable climate characteristics and are located at similar latitudes, recent warming acceleration is most pronounced Basin. Here, we investigate contributions of several drivers to regional anomalies. We consider greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar irradiance, land–atmosphere interactions, natural variability modes. Our results highlight dominant role anthropogenic gas radiative forcing all regions, particularly those northern hemisphere. In Basin, largely due combined effect declining aerosols a negative trend soil moisture. While land-atmosphere feedbacks also important other locations (e.g., California Southern Africa), this synergy unique These two components equivalent importance. Such not fully resolved current projections.

Language: Английский

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Severe droughts in North Africa: A review of drivers, impacts and management

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 250, P. 104701 - 104701

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part I): Induced Alterations on Climate Forcings and Hydrological Processes

Water Resources Management, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 37(6-7), P. 2287 - 2305

Published: Dec. 6, 2022

Language: Английский

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Projection of temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean region through multi-model ensemble from CMIP6

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 280, P. 106440 - 106440

Published: Sept. 16, 2022

Language: Английский

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