Storylines of Atmospheric Circulation Change for European Regional Climate Impact Assessment

Journal of Climate, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 30(16), P. 6561 - 6577

Published: June 15, 2017

There is increasing interest in understanding the regional impacts of different global warming targets. However, several climate depend on atmospheric circulation, whose response to change remains substantially uncertain and not interpretable a probabilistic sense multimodel ensemble projections. To account for these uncertainties, novel approach where analyzed as function carbon emissions conditional plausible storylines circulation here presented applied CMIP5 models’ future The are determined based three remote drivers circulation: tropical polar amplification changes stratospheric vortex strength. As an illustration this approach, it shown that severity projected wintertime Mediterranean precipitation decline central European windiness increase strongly depends storyline change. For given magnitude warming, highest impact aspects found high strengthening vortex. difference wind responses between substantial equivalent contribution from degrees warming. Improving driver thus needed better bound sector. value represent uncertainty projections inform selection models studies discussed.

Language: Английский

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Mid-latitude net precipitation decreased with Arctic warming during the Holocene

Nature, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 568(7750), P. 83 - 87

Published: March 27, 2019

Language: Английский

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Increased Quasi Stationarity and Persistence of Winter Ural Blocking and Eurasian Extreme Cold Events in Response to Arctic Warming. Part I: Insights from Observational Analyses

Journal of Climate, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 30(10), P. 3549 - 3568

Published: Jan. 18, 2017

Abstract Part I of this study examines the relationship among winter cold anomalies over Eurasia, Ural blocking (UB), and background conditions associated with Arctic warming Barents Kara Seas (BKS) using reanalysis data. It is found that intensity, persistence, occurrence region UB-related Eurasian depend strongly on strength vertical shear (VS) mean westerly wind (MWW) mid–high-latitude Eurasia related to BKS warming. Observational analysis reveals during 1951–2015 UB days are 64% (54%) more frequent weak MWW winters, 26.9 (28.4) per winter, than strong winters. During or VS as frequently observed 2000–15, persistent large seen together widespread midlatitude resulting from increased quasi stationarity persistence UB. By contrast, when 1979–99, anomaly less intense confined a narrow Europe because rapid westward movement For case, relatively persistent. The maintained primarily by reduced downward infrared radiation (IR), while surface heat fluxes, IR, advection all contribute Thus, since 2000 weakens meridional temperature gradient, MWW, VS, which increases (rather its amplitude) then leads events further enhances

Language: Английский

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Advances in understanding and parameterization of small-scale physical processes in the marine Arctic climate system: a review

Atmospheric chemistry and physics, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 14(17), P. 9403 - 9450

Published: Sept. 10, 2014

Abstract. The Arctic climate system includes numerous highly interactive small-scale physical processes in the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean. During since International Polar Year 2007–2009, significant advances have been made understanding these processes. Here, recent are reviewed, synthesized, discussed. In atmospheric physics, primary cloud radiative transfer, mesoscale cyclones, coastal, fjordic as well boundary layer surface fluxes. ice its snow cover, of albedo relationships with properties, internal structure heat salt transfer formation superimposed dynamics ice. For ocean, related to exchange at ice–ocean interface, diapycnal mixing, double-diffusive convection, tidal currents diurnal resonance. Despite this progress, some still not sufficiently understood: include wave–turbulence interactions atmosphere mechanical weakening Many other reasonably understood stand-alone but challenge is understand their impacts feedbacks on Uncertainty parameterization continues be among greatest challenges facing modelling, particularly high latitudes. Further improvements require new year-round field campaigns closely combined satellite remote sensing studies numerical model experiments.

Language: Английский

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Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 12(9), P. 094006 - 094006

Published: Aug. 23, 2017

Typically 20–40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called 'weather bombs') occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade over 1979–2015, according to hourly station data from Ny-Ålesund. This increased frequency cyclones is consistent observed significant warming, indicating that meridional heat and moisture transport they bring a factor rising temperatures region. The dominated by positive monthly about 3–4 November–December, due mainly persistence events. A negative January opposes this, while there no February. We relate regional patterns anomalously low sea-ice conditions recent years, together associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as 'blockinglike' (e.g. Scandinavian blocking December Ural during January–February).

Language: Английский

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