Climate change extinctions

Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 386(6726), P. 1123 - 1128

Published: Dec. 5, 2024

Climate change is expected to cause irreversible changes biodiversity, but predicting those risks remains uncertain. I synthesized 485 studies and more than 5 million projections produce a quantitative global assessment of climate extinctions. With increased certainty, this meta-analysis suggests that extinctions will accelerate rapidly if temperatures exceed 1.5°C. The highest-emission scenario would threaten approximately one-third species, globally. Amphibians; species from mountain, island, freshwater ecosystems; inhabiting South America, Australia, New Zealand face the greatest threats. In line with predictions, has contributed an increasing proportion observed since 1970. Besides limiting greenhouse gases, pinpointing which protect first be critical for preserving biodiversity until anthropogenic halted reversed.

Language: Английский

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Assessing socio-ecological fit of international environmental agreements and trade-embodied carbon flows

Environmental Impact Assessment Review, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 106, P. 107534 - 107534

Published: May 1, 2024

Global emissions embodied in trade (EET) constitute approximately one-third of total carbon emissions. Although countries combat environmental impacts via international cooperation, it is unclear whether these social efforts fit the ecological challenges. It imperative to assess between agreements (IEAs) and EET. The article constructed global social-ecological networks during 1995–2021 for 189 countries. Based on assumption a Poisson-Binomial distribution, were statistically verified by bipartite exponential random graph modeling (ERGM). To measure degree fit, tested quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) correlation logistic regression. Results: (1) Social-ecological IEAs EET decreased last 27 years from 0.313 0.138, with effect network weakened; (2) relative importance world contribution outlines regional blocks; (3) An 8.681-year cycle was modeled predicted future shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios until 2050; (4) proposed ERGM-QAP method exhibits computational advantage, applicable other large-scale problems. interpreted as efficiency impact internalization, equity cooperation effectiveness human-nature interactions. Policy implications include accelerating IEA ratification, establishing unified ETS within top-contributing linking cap-and-trade systems issuing common credits internalize externalities.

Language: Английский

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Reconstructing the Invasive History and Potential Distribution Prediction of Amaranthus palmeri in China

Agronomy, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(10), P. 2498 - 2498

Published: Sept. 28, 2023

Palmer Amaranth (Amaranthus palmeri, Amaranthaceae) is one of the most competitive, troublesome, and noxious weeds causing significant yield reductions in various crops. A. palmeri was also a herbicide-resistant weed serious eco-environmental problem. Given that process invasion dynamic, plamer may already be quite severe where invasive species management surveys are chronically lacking. Predicting potential habitat can help to develop effective measures for early warning long-term detection. However, history distribution patterns China remain largely unknown. Here, from 1985 2022 were reconstructed, then geographical predicted under current future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) using optimal MaxEnt model (V 3.4.4) ArcGIS 10.8.2. The mean AUC values 0.967. Under conditions, suitable areas reached 1,067,000 km2 mainly distributed north central China. scenarios, highly habitats Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei. SSP2–4.5, will reach maximum expand 1,411,100 2060s. centroid would northwestward extend scenarios. human footprint index, temperature warmest quarter (Bio_10), April wind speed (Wind_4), seasonality (standard deviation × 100) (bio_4), topsoil gravel content (T_gravel), precipitation (Bio_18) key environmental variables affecting growth palmeri. Climate change increase risk expanding high latitudes. Our results developing strategies warning, prevention, control,

Language: Английский

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Impact of climate change on Southeast Asian natural habitats, with focus on protected areas

Global Ecology and Conservation, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 39, P. e02293 - e02293

Published: Sept. 23, 2022

Natural habitats have been destroyed by anthropogenic factors for several decades, exacerbated climate change. This study investigated the impact of change on natural using 55 Phasianidae species. We predicted current and future species distribution based three scenarios. then (1) determined effect each comparing elevation range shift between predictions. In addition, we (2) estimated total large habitat patches (> 40 km2) species, determine how it in future. also (3) within PAs. Moreover, (4) evaluated diversity hotspots The results showed is likely to reduce suitable Southeast Asia, with an average reduction was 180,970 km2 (11%) when predictions state. Most appeared be retreating higher altitudes face 2100. patch declined 183,474 (12%), 2–10 imminent danger losing their (depending modeling scenarios). protected areas represented a small proportion distribution, there were fewer than currently available. risk diversity, especially Indo-Burma region where most them are facing massive loss habitats. suggest use as indicator monitor forests Asia implementation adaptive conservation management prevent further losses

Language: Английский

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Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Plant Cremastra appendiculata (Orchidaceae) in China under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios

Forests, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(9), P. 1504 - 1504

Published: Sept. 16, 2022

Cremastraappendiculata (Orchidaceae) is a perennial medicinal herb, which included in the national second-class protected plant catalog China. Due to influences of climate change and anthropogenic activities, conjunction with soaring commercial prices, wild sources C.appendiculata have been drastically reduced are danger extinction. Consequently, it important predict distribution potentially suitable growth/propagation areas for under backdrop its protection sustainable use. For this study, an optimized maximum entropy model was employed analyze patterns changes regions during different periods since Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 18–24 ka). Based on multiple scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), range C. appendiculata predicted 2050s (average 2041–2060), 2070s 2061–2080), 2090s 2081–2100). The results revealed that LGM period, highly growth area 0.28 × 104 km2, accounted only 3.26% current area. During mid-Holocene (MH, 6 ka) increased 8.38 99.30% present Further, cumulative existing 213.9 accounts 22.28% China’s territory. Of these lands, low, medium, high 147.76 57.71 8.44 respectively. primarily distributed across Sichuan, Gansu, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Guizhou, Hubei, Anhui Provinces. Moreover, future will decrease varying degrees. study found relatively low impact were mainly Guizhou Centroid transfer analysis indicated center shifted northwest SSP2-4.5 while they initially then southeast SSP1-2.6 SSP5-8.5.

Language: Английский

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Potential distribution of the spring ephemeral plant Adonis amurensis in Northeast China under future climate change

Ecosphere, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(5)

Published: May 1, 2023

Abstract Adonis amurensis Regel et Radde is an early spring plant in northeastern China that has great ornamental value because it blooms before other plants have sprouted. It not been used to its full potential due environmental restrictions on growth. will be extremely important for application comprehend the possible habitat of A. and critical factors controlling distribution under current future climatic scenarios. In this work, two climate change scenarios 2041–2060 2081–2100 were utilized predict suitable . The results showed was mainly distributed along Changbai Mountains, with a total area 303,090 km 2 , high‐potential 141,218 161,872 respectively. scenarios, still but reduced. ssp126 ssp585 2081–2100, reduced by 7.13% 22.34% 18.66% 8.09%, located central Heilongjiang (southeastern Xiao Xing'an Ling), Jilin, Liaoning. significantly influenced precipitation, affected annual followed precipitation seasonality, soil surface pH, slope. study can serve as empirical support artificial cultivation, ecological restoration, long‐term use

Language: Английский

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The Ginkgo biloba L. in China: Current Distribution and Possible Future Habitat

Forests, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(12), P. 2284 - 2284

Published: Nov. 22, 2023

With the increase in global temperature, change situation dominated by climate warming is becoming more and serious. Climate will cause differences suitable areas of species different periods. Ginkgo biloba L., a rare endangered wild plant protected at national level China, oldest relict world. Because severe change, only China’s has been preserved, yet population facing extinction risk. rich ornamental value, application economic medicinal value ecological value. Not can it produce benefits, but also huge social benefits. Based on data sample distribution, bioclimatic variables soil variables, this paper uses MaxEnt model to simulate area under current future scenarios, analyzes changes potential through ArcGIS 10.6. The results are as follows: (1) simulated AUC > 0.9, showing that simulation have high accuracy; (2) min temperature coldest month, precipitation wettest elevation, seasonality main environmental affecting area; (3) predicted expand future, covering most south some northeast regions, moderate conducive for growth biloba; (4) distribution center move northeast. According conclusions paper, expected provide theoretical reference cultivation management, sustainable utilization solution environment problems biloba.

Language: Английский

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Climate change affects Galliformes taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity indexes, shifting conservation priority areas in China

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 29(3), P. 409 - 422

Published: Dec. 23, 2022

Abstract Aim Comprehensive biodiversity protection necessitates the consideration of multiple indexes diversity, and how distribution patterns priority areas may shift under climate change. Galliformes is a globally endangered avian order vulnerable to change that provide an important indicator for wildlife conservation effectiveness. Here, we identified conserving taxonomic, phylogenetic, functional diversity in China their spatial dynamics subject change, examined well existing protected align with current future areas. Location China. Methods We applied species modelling Zonation algorithms identify area 47 galliform across three scenarios 2050s 2070s. overlaid these onto national nature reserves parks assess project Results Current proved spatially incongruent between indexes, optimal overlap comprising just 10.3% China's land area, lying largely outside Furthermore, over 80% modelled currently lacked formal status. Future will substantially extent dependent on greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Nevertheless, five large regions where should remain stable all scenarios, thus providing potential climatic refugia, if from human encroachment. Main Conclusions The deficits resonate broader need hierarchical strategic planning ecosystems ensure long‐term protection, accommodating

Language: Английский

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Activity patterns of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) in the moist temperate forests of Machiara National Park, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan

Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 30(3), P. 8036 - 8047

Published: Sept. 1, 2022

Language: Английский

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Dynamic occupancy modeling of a cryptic ground-dwelling pheasant species in the Upper Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia

Global Ecology and Conservation, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 48, P. e02710 - e02710

Published: Nov. 4, 2023

Modeling the occupancy of species in context habitat components is a crucial step to deliver an appropriate conservation strategy. Accounting for imperfect detection models helps conclude on true distribution and occupancy. We used dynamic modeling investigate influence covariates dynamics Near Threatened Harwood's Francolin (Pternistis harwoodi) Upper Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia. direct observation playback technique collect presence/absence data both during wet dry season 2019 2020. By accounting species' detection, model averaged estimates probabilities (mean ± SE) across respective seasons were 0.81 0.08 0.79 0.07 0.47 0.62 0.06. The colonization local extinction probability between 0.59 0.20 0.12 0.07, respectively. demonstrate that significantly decreased with increasing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI: ꞵmean SE = -1.83 0.66; 95% CI: -3.12, -0.54) quadratic term slope (SL2= -1.51 0.62; -2.73, -0.29) study area. Furthermore, human disturbance index (HDI: -1.06 0.54; -2.12, -0.004) negatively influenced species. As we hypothesized, increased as function average temperature (0.37 0.13; 0.12, 0.63). There no statistically significant associations among parameters, yet important such NDVI slightly colonization, whereas HDI positively extinction. aversion towards its persistence at lower slopes has implications strategy current demonstrates empirical evidence cryptic ground-dwelling pheasant Basin. Further recommended understand spatiotemporal species-habitat association fine landscape scales.

Language: Английский

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