Interaction between dry and hot extremes at a global scale using a cascade modeling framework DOI Creative Commons
Sourav Mukherjee, Ashok K. Mishra, Jakob Zscheischler

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Jan. 17, 2023

Abstract Climate change amplifies dry and hot extremes, yet the mechanism, extent, scope, temporal scale of causal linkages between extremes remain underexplored. Here using concept system dynamics, we investigate cross-scale interactions within dry-to-hot hot-to-dry extreme event networks quantify magnitude, temporal-scale, physical drivers cascading effects (CEs) drying-on-heating vice-versa, across globe. We find that locations exhibiting exceptionally strong CE (hotspots) for generally coincide. However, CEs differ strongly in their timescale interaction, hydroclimatic drivers, sensitivity to changes soil-plant-atmosphere continuum background aridity. The hotspot reaches its peak immediately driven by compounding influence vapor pressure deficit, potential evapotranspiration, precipitation. In contrast, heating-on-drying peaks gradually dominated concurrent precipitation, net-radiation with effect deficit being controlled ecosystem isohydricity Our results help improve our understanding predictability compound related impacts.

Language: Английский

Genetic strategies for improving crop yields DOI Open Access
Julia Bailey‐Serres, Jane E. Parker, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 575(7781), P. 109 - 118

Published: Nov. 6, 2019

Language: Английский

Citations

1145
Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events DOI Creative Commons
Jakob Zscheischler, Sonia I. Seneviratne

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 3(6)

Published: June 2, 2017

Compound climate extremes are receiving increasing attention because of their disproportionate impacts on humans and ecosystems. However, risks assessments generally focus univariate statistics. We analyze the co-occurrence hot dry summers show that these correlated, inducing a much higher frequency concurrent than what would be assumed from independent combination Our results demonstrate how dependence structure between variables affects occurrence multivariate extremes. Assessments based statistics can thus strongly underestimate associated with given extremes, if depend multiple (dependent) variables. conclude perspective is necessary to appropriately assess changes in design adaptation strategies.

Language: Английский

Citations

732
Climate Change and Drought: a Perspective on Drought Indices DOI
Sourav Mukherjee, Ashok K. Mishra, Kevin E. Trenberth

et al.

Current Climate Change Reports, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 4(2), P. 145 - 163

Published: April 23, 2018

Language: Английский

Citations

612
Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes DOI Open Access
Erich Fischer, Sebastian Sippel, Reto Knutti

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(8), P. 689 - 695

Published: July 26, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

486
The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation DOI Creative Commons
Dim Coumou, Giorgia Di Capua, S. J. Vavrus

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: July 23, 2018

Accelerated warming in the Arctic, as compared to rest of globe, might have profound impacts on mid-latitude weather. Most studies analyzing Arctic links weather focused winter, yet recent summers seen strong reductions sea-ice extent and snow cover, a weakened equator-to-pole thermal gradient associated weakening circulation. We review scientific evidence behind three leading hypotheses influence changes summer weather: Weakened storm tracks, shifted jet streams, amplified quasi-stationary waves. show that interactions between teleconnections other remote regional feedback processes could lead more persistent hot-dry extremes mid-latitudes. The exact nature these non-linear is not well quantified but they provide potential high-impact risks for society.

Language: Английский

Citations

470
Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century DOI Creative Commons
Ethan Coffel, Radley Horton, Alex de Sherbinin

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 13(1), P. 014001 - 014001

Published: Dec. 8, 2017

As a result of global increases in both temperature and specific humidity, heat stress is projected to intensify throughout the 21st century. Some regions most susceptible dangerous humidity combinations are also among densely populated. Consequently, there potential for widespread exposure wet bulb temperatures that approach some cases exceed postulated theoretical limits human tolerance by mid- late-century. We project 2080 relative frequency present-day extreme events could rise factor 100–250 (approximately double change alone) tropics parts mid-latitudes, areas which contain approximately half world's population. In addition, population recent deadly waves may increase five ten, with 150–750 million person-days above those seen today's severe 2070–2080. Under RCP 8.5, 35 °C—the limit tolerance—could per year 2080. Limiting emissions follow 4.5 entirely eliminates threshold. affected regions, especially Northeast India coastal West Africa, currently have scarce cooling infrastructure, relatively low adaptive capacity, rapidly growing populations. coming decades prove be one widely experienced directly aspects climate change, posing threat health, energy outdoor activities ranging from agricultural production military training.

Language: Английский

Citations

381
Interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves DOI Creative Commons
Lei Zhao, Michael Oppenheimer, Qing Zhu

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 13(3), P. 034003 - 034003

Published: Dec. 6, 2017

Heat waves (HWs) are among the most damaging climate extremes to human society. Climate models consistently project that HW frequency, severity, and duration will increase markedly over this century. For urban residents, heat island (UHI) effect further exacerbates stress resulting from HWs. Here we use a model investigate interactions between UHI HWs in 50 cities United States under current future warming scenarios. We examine UHI2m (defined as urban-rural difference 2m-height air temperature) UHIs radiative surface temperature). Our results show significant sensitivity of interaction local background Sensitivity also differs daytime nighttime. During daytime, temperate region synergistic effects climate, with an average 0.4 K higher or 2.8 during than normal days. These effects, however, diminish warmer climates. In contrast, for dry regions insignificant but emerge At night, similar across stronger biophysical factorization method disentangle mechanisms behind explain spatial-temporal patterns interactions. Results versus rural evaporation enhanced anthropogenic emissions (air conditioning energy use) key contributors daytime. The contrast water availability land plays important role determining contribution evaporation. release stored primary effects.

Language: Английский

Citations

354
Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events DOI Creative Commons
Michael Mann, Stefan Rahmstorf, Kai Kornhuber

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 7(1)

Published: March 27, 2017

Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with presence high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves phenomenon quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) synoptic-scale that becoming trapped an effective mid-latitude waveguide. Recent work suggests increase recent decades occurrence QRA-favorable conditions and weather, possibly linked amplified Arctic warming thus climate change influence. Here, we isolate specific fingerprint zonal mean surface temperature profile is conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical model simulations subject anthropogenic forcing display projection this mirrored multiple observational datasets. Both models observations suggest signal has only recently emerged from background noise natural variability.

Language: Английский

Citations

332
Extreme weather events in early summer 2018 connected by a recurrent hemispheric wave-7 pattern DOI Creative Commons
Kai Kornhuber, Scott Osprey, Dim Coumou

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 14(5), P. 054002 - 054002

Published: April 26, 2019

Abstract The summer of 2018 witnessed a number extreme weather events such as heatwaves in North America, Western Europe and the Caspian Sea region, rainfall extremes South-East Japan that occurred near-simultaneously. Here we show some these were connected by an amplified hemisphere-wide wavenumber 7 circulation pattern. We this pattern constitutes important teleconnection Northern Hemisphere associated with prolonged above-normal temperatures region. This was also observed during European 2003, 2006 2015 among others. occurrence wave has increased over recent decades.

Language: Английский

Citations

326
Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes DOI Creative Commons
Jun Wang, Yang Chen, Simon F. B. Tett

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Feb. 11, 2020

Abstract Compared to individual hot days/nights, compound extremes that combine daytime and nighttime heat are more impactful. However, past future changes in as well their underlying drivers societal impacts remain poorly understood. Here we show during 1960–2012, significant increases Northern Hemisphere average frequency (~1.03 days decade −1 ) intensity (~0.28 °C of summertime arise primarily from summer-mean warming. The forcing rising greenhouse gases (GHGs) is robustly detected largely accounts for observed trends. Observationally-constrained projections suggest an approximate eightfold increase hemispheric-average a threefold growth by 2100 (relative 2012), given uncurbed GHG emissions. Accordingly, end-of-century population exposure projected be four eight times the 2010s level, dependent on demographic climate scenarios.

Language: Английский

Citations

240