Natural variability vs forced signal in the 2015–2019 Central American drought DOI Creative Commons
Salvatore Pascale, Sarah Kapnick, Thomas L. Delworth

et al.

Climatic Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 168(3-4)

Published: Oct. 1, 2021

Abstract The recent multi-year 2015–2019 drought after a multi-decadal drying trend over Central America raises the question of whether anthropogenic climate change (ACC) played role in exacerbating these events. While occurrence has been asserted to be associated with ACC, we lack an assessment natural vs contributions. Here, use five different large ensembles—including high-resolution ensembles (i.e., 0.5 ∘ horizontally)—to estimate contribution ACC probability event and trend. comparison forced plus forcing suggests that 40-year is likely internal variability. However, rainfall deficit made more by ACC. synthesis results from model supports notion significant increase, factor four, last century for meteorological occur because All further suggest that, under intermediate high emission scenarios, likelihood similar events will continue increase substantially next decades.

Language: Английский

Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America DOI Creative Commons
Mansour Almazroui, Moetasim Ashfaq, M. Nazrul Islam

et al.

Earth Systems and Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 5(2), P. 155 - 183

Published: June 1, 2021

Abstract We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble Global Climate Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for recent past reference period and examine their projections twenty-first century precipitation temperature changes. The future changes are computed two time slices (2040–2059 2080–2099) relative to (1995–2014) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 SSP5–8.5). CMIP6 GCMs successfully capture main climate characteristics across America. However, they exhibit varying skill in spatiotemporal distribution at sub-regional scale, particularly high latitudes altitudes. Future exhibits decrease east northern Andes tropical southern Chile Amazonia, an increase southeastern Andes—a result generally consistent with earlier CMIP (3 5) projections. most these remain within range variability period. In contrast, increases robust terms magnitude even SSP1–2.6. mostly progress monotonically weakest strongest forcing scenario, mid-century late-century projection There is seasonality intra-annual distribution, as wetter part year contributes relatively more annual total. Furthermore, increasingly heavy-tailed rightward shifted provide strong indications intense hydrological cycle greenhouse gas emissions increase. distance individual GCM mean does not substantially vary different scenarios. found no clear systematic linkage between model spread about simulated change Overall, results could be useful regional impact assessments

Language: Английский

Citations

192
Future changes in precipitation and temperature over the Yangtze River Basin in China based on CMIP6 GCMs DOI
Yanlin Yue, Dan Yan, Qun Yue

et al.

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 264, P. 105828 - 105828

Published: Aug. 25, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

108
Modelling impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on inflows and sediment loads of wetlands: case study of the Anzali wetland DOI Creative Commons

Mehran Mahdian,

Majid Hosseinzadeh, Seyed Mostafa Siadatmousavi

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: April 3, 2023

Understanding the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on hydrogeomorpholgical parameters in wetlands ecosystems is vital for designing effective environmental protection control protocols these natural capitals. This study develops methodological approach to model streamflow sediment inputs under combined land use / cover (LULC) changes using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The precipitation temperature data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) different Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) are downscaled bias-corrected with Euclidean distance method quantile delta mapping (QDM) case Anzali wetland watershed (AWW) Iran. Land Change Modeler (LCM) adopted project future LULC at AWW. results indicate that air across AWW will decrease increase, respectively, SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Streamflow loads reduce sole influence SSP2-4.5 An increase load inflow was observed changes, this mainly due projected increased deforestation urbanization findings suggest densely vegetated regions, located zones steep slope, significantly prevents large high input Under by 2100, total reach 22.66, 20.83, 19.93 million tons scenarios, respectively. highlight without any robust interventions, degrade ecosystem partly-fill basin, resulting resigning Montreux record list Ramsar Convention Wetlands International Importance.

Language: Английский

Citations

92
Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit DOI Creative Commons
Brandi Gamelin, Jeremy Feinstein, Jiali Wang

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: May 21, 2022

Abstract Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex regions with large variability atmospheric and soil moisture on small spatial scales. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) a valuable measure of evaporative demand as moves from surface into atmosphere dynamic drought. Here, VPD used identify short-term Standardized Drought Index (SVDI); characterize future extreme droughts using grid dependent stationary non-stationary generalized value (GEV) models, random sampling technique developed quantify multimodel uncertainties. The GEV analysis was performed projections Weather Research Forecasting model, downscaled three Climate Models based Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for present, mid-century late-century. Results show index (SVDI) accurately identifies timing magnitude droughts, increasing across by end number days above 9 kPa increases 10 along California’s coastline, 30–40 northwest Midwest, 100 Central Valley.

Language: Английский

Citations

71
Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs DOI
Adnan Abbas, Asher Samuel Bhatti, Safi Ullah

et al.

Journal of Arid Land, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(3), P. 274 - 296

Published: March 1, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

52
Understanding climate change impacts on drought in China over the 21st century: a multi-model assessment from CMIP6 DOI Creative Commons
Feng Xu,

Yanping Qu,

Virgílio A. Bento

et al.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(1)

Published: Jan. 30, 2024

Abstract The future state of drought in China under climate change remains uncertain. This study investigates events, focusing on the region China, using simulations from five global models (GCMs) three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) participating Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b). daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is employed to analyze severity, duration, frequency over periods. Evaluation GCMs’ against observational data indicates their effectiveness capturing historical climatic across China. rapid increase CO 2 concentration high-emission scenarios mid- late-future century (2040–2070 2071–2100) substantially influences vegetation behavior via regulation leaf stomata canopy structure. decelerates potential evapotranspiration, thereby mitigating sharp rise occurrences These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers stakeholders develop strategies measures adapting conditions

Language: Английский

Citations

49
Temperature projections and heatwave attribution scenarios over India: A systematic review DOI Creative Commons
Khaiwal Ravindra, Sanjeev Bhardwaj, Chhotu Ram

et al.

Heliyon, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 10(4), P. e26431 - e26431

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

19
Climate models for predicting precipitation and temperature trends in cities: A systematic review DOI
Shah Fahad, Ayyoob Sharifi

Sustainable Cities and Society, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 106171 - 106171

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Projected changes in temperature and precipitation over mainland Southeast Asia by CMIP6 models DOI Creative Commons
Seree Supharatid, J. Nafung,

Thannob Aribarg

et al.

Journal of Water and Climate Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 13(1), P. 337 - 356

Published: May 19, 2021

Abstract Five mainland SEA countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand) are threatened by climate change. Here, the latest 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is employed to examine future change in this region under two SSP-RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5). The bias-corrected multi-model ensemble (MME) projects a warming (wetting) over Cambodia, Thailand 1.88–3.89, 2.04–4.22, 1.88–4.09, 2.03–4.25, 1.90–3.96 °C (8.76–20.47, 12.69–21.10, 9.54–21.10, 13.47–22.12, 7.03–15.17%) 21st century with larger values found SSP5-8.5 than SSP2-4.5. MME model displays approximately triple current rainfall during boreal summer. Overall, there robust increases Southwest Monsoon (3.41–3.44, 8.44–9.53, 10.89–17.59%) Northeast (−2.58 0.78, −0.43 2.81, 2.32 5.45%). effectiveness of anticipated mitigation adaptation strategies SSP2-4.5 results slowing down trends decreasing precipitation after 2050. All these findings imply that member need prepare for appropriate measures response changing climate.

Language: Английский

Citations

70
Evaluation and projection of precipitation in Pakistan using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations DOI
Adnan Abbas, Safi Ullah, Waheed Ullah

et al.

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 42(13), P. 6665 - 6684

Published: March 6, 2022

Abstract This study aimed to evaluate the performance of global climate models (GCMs) from family Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in historical simulation precipitation and select best performing GCMs for future projection Pakistan under multiple shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The spatiotemporal was evaluated against Climate Research Unit (CRU) data simulating annual during 1951–2014, using Taylor diagram interannual variability skill (IVS). Moreover, modified Mann–Kendall (mMK) Sen's slope estimator (SSE) tests were employed estimate significant trends period 2015–2100. Based on comprehensive ranking index (CRI), HadGEM3‐GC31‐MM model has highest distributions followed by EC‐Earth3‐Veg‐LR, CNRM‐ESM2‐1, MPI‐ESM1‐2‐HR, CNRM‐CM6‐1, MRI‐ESM2‐0, CNRM‐CM6‐1‐HR, EC‐Earth3‐Veg, MCM‐UA‐1‐0, INM‐CM5‐0, KACE‐1‐0‐G, CAMS‐CSM1‐0, HadGEM3‐GC31‐LL models. Furthermore, projections ensemble mean (BMEM) showed that region will experience a substantial increase SSP3‐7.0 SSP5‐8.5 but an indolent rise SSP1‐2.6 SSP2‐4.5 scenarios. summer precipitations exhibit statistically increasing trend relative winter season most magnitude monotonic seasonal progresses low forcing scenario (SSP1‐2.6) high (SSP5‐8.5). findings could provide benchmark selecting appropriate over scare region, like Pakistan. projected are crucial devising adaption mitigation actions towards sustainable planning water resource management, food security, disaster risk management.

Language: Английский

Citations

69