Abstract.
Climate
warming
exacerbates
the
degradation
of
mountain
cryosphere,
including
glacier
retreat,
reduction
in
snow
cover
area,
and
permafrost
degradation.
These
changes
dramatically
alter
local
downstream
hydrological
regime,
posing
significant
threats
to
basin-scale
water
resource
management
sustainable
development.
However,
there
is
still
a
lack
systematic
research
that
evaluates
variation
cryospheric
elements
mountainous
catchments
their
impacts
on
future
hydrology
resources.
In
this
study,
we
developed
an
integrated
cryospheric-hydrologic
model,
referred
as
FLEX-Cryo
model.
This
model
comprehensively
considers
glaciers,
cover,
frozen
soil,
dynamic
processes
Hulu
catchment
located
Upper
Heihe
river
China.
We
utilized
state-of-the-art
climate
change
projection
data
from
sixth
phase
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
(CMIP6)
simulate
cryosphere
hydrology.
Our
findings
showed
two
glaciers
will
completely
melt
out
around
years
2045–2051.
By
end
21st
century,
annual
maximum
equivalent
projected
decrease
by
41.4
%
46.0
%,
while
duration
be
reduced
approximately
45
70
days.
The
freeze
onset
seasonal
soil
expected
delayed
10
22
days,
thaw
likely
advance
19
32
Moreover,
depth
5.2
10.9
cm
per
decade,
active
layer
increase
8.2
15.5
decade.
Regarding
hydrology,
runoff
exhibits
decreasing
trend
until
complete
melt-out
resulting
total
15.6
18.1
%.
Subsequently,
shows
increasing
trend,
primarily
due
precipitation.
Permafrost
causes
low
early
thawing
season
decrease,
discontinuous
baseflow
recession
gradually
transitions
into
linear
recessions,
leading
baseflow.
results
highlight
future.
enhance
our
understanding
cold-region
have
potential
assist
addressing
challenges
posed
change.
Hydrology and earth system sciences,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
28(16), P. 3897 - 3917
Published: Aug. 26, 2024
Abstract.
Climate
warming
exacerbates
the
degradation
of
mountain
cryosphere,
including
glacier
retreat,
permafrost
degradation,
and
snow
cover
reduction.
These
changes
dramatically
alter
local
downstream
hydrological
regime,
posing
significant
threats
to
basin-scale
water
resource
management
sustainable
development.
However,
this
issue
is
still
not
adequately
addressed,
particularly
in
mountainous
catchments.
We
developed
an
integrated
cryospheric–hydrologic
model,
FLEX-Cryo
comprehensively
consider
glaciers,
cover,
frozen
soil
their
dynamic
impacts
on
processes.
Taking
Hulu
catchment
located
upper
Heihe
River
China
as
a
case
study,
we
utilized
state-of-the-art
climate
change
projection
data
under
two
scenarios
(SSP2-4.5
SSP5-8.5)
from
sixth
phase
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
(CMIP6)
simulate
future
cryosphere
hydrology.
Our
findings
showed
that
medium-emission
scenario
(SSP2-4.5)
high-emission
(SSP5-8.5),
by
end
21st
century,
will
completely
melt
out
around
years
2051
2045,
respectively.
The
annual
maximum
equivalent
projected
decrease
41.4
%
46.0
%,
while
duration
be
reduced
approximately
45
70
d.
freeze
onset
seasonally
expected
delayed
10
22
d,
thaw
likely
advance
19
32
Moreover,
depth
5.2
10.9
cm
per
decade,
active
layer
increase
8.2
15.5
decade.
Regarding
hydrology,
total
runoff
exhibits
decreasing
trend,
tipping
point
occurs
between
2019
2021.
Permafrost
reduce
low
early
thawing
season;
discontinuous
baseflow
recession
gradually
transitions
into
linear
recessions,
increases.
results
highlight
hydrology
future.
enhance
our
understanding
cold-region
processes
have
potential
assist
addressing
challenges
posed
change.
Water,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
14(16), P. 2573 - 2573
Published: Aug. 20, 2022
The
soil
freeze–thaw
phenomenon
is
one
of
the
most
outstanding
characteristics
in
Heilongjiang
Province.
Quantitative
analysis
changes
key
variables
processes
great
scientific
importance
for
understanding
climate
change,
as
well
ecological
and
hydrological
processes.
Based
on
daily
surface
temperature
air
data
Province
past
50
years,
spatial–temporal
distribution
their
correlations
with
latitude
process
were
analyzed
using
linear
regression,
Mann–Kendall
test,
local
thin
disk
smooth
spline
function
interpolation
method,
correlation
analysis;
additionally,
during
are
discussed
under
different
vegetation
types.
results
show
that
there
a
trend
delayed
freezing
early
melting
from
north
to
south.
From
1971
2019
a,
start
date
(FSD)
was
at
rate
1.66
d/10
end
(FED)
advanced
3.17
days
(FD)
shortened
4.79
a;
each
1
°C
increase
temperature,
FSD
by
about
1.6
d,
FED
3
FD
4.6
d;
1°
latitude,
2.6
2.8
5.6
d.
spatial
variation
same
cover
closely
related
altitude,
where
lower
more
obvious
trend;
among
them,
interannual
meadow
obvious,
which
varied
9.65,
16.86,
26.51
respectively.
In
addition,
trends
ground
types
generally
consistent,
longest
period
unstable
shortest
stable
freeze
coniferous
forests,
compared
meadows.
study
important
our
Province,
evolution
high-latitude
permafrost;
they
also
promote
further
exploration
impact
agricultural
production
change.
Water,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
15(3), P. 451 - 451
Published: Jan. 23, 2023
Understanding
the
role
of
climate
change
and
catchment
characteristics
in
hydrological
activity
is
important
for
efficient
use
water
resources.
In
this
study,
a
Budyko
framework
suitable
non-steady
conditions
was
used
to
assess
impacts
on
long-term
changes
annual
seasonal
runoff
Second
Songhua
River
(SSR)
basin
during
last
30
years.
Based
analysis
hydro-meteorological
series
SSR,
SSR
showed
non-significant
increasing
trend.
The
elements
changed
abruptly
2009,
study
period
divided
into
baseline
(1989–2009)
disturbed
(2010–2018).
Runoff
increased
compared
period,
with
significant
increase
spring
upstream
area
summer
downstream
area.
attribution
results
indicated
that
mainly
affected
by
climatic
factors,
66.8–99.6%
yearly
were
caused
change.
Catchment
had
little
effect
but
significantly
runoff.
affecting
withdrawal,
snowfall,
degradation
permafrost,
reservoir
operation.
This
provides
basis
further
understanding
intra-annual
variability
other
similar
rivers.
Abstract.
Climate
warming
exacerbates
the
degradation
of
mountain
cryosphere,
including
glacier
retreat,
reduction
in
snow
cover
area,
and
permafrost
degradation.
These
changes
dramatically
alter
local
downstream
hydrological
regime,
posing
significant
threats
to
basin-scale
water
resource
management
sustainable
development.
However,
there
is
still
a
lack
systematic
research
that
evaluates
variation
cryospheric
elements
mountainous
catchments
their
impacts
on
future
hydrology
resources.
In
this
study,
we
developed
an
integrated
cryospheric-hydrologic
model,
referred
as
FLEX-Cryo
model.
This
model
comprehensively
considers
glaciers,
cover,
frozen
soil,
dynamic
processes
Hulu
catchment
located
Upper
Heihe
river
China.
We
utilized
state-of-the-art
climate
change
projection
data
from
sixth
phase
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
(CMIP6)
simulate
cryosphere
hydrology.
Our
findings
showed
two
glaciers
will
completely
melt
out
around
years
2045–2051.
By
end
21st
century,
annual
maximum
equivalent
projected
decrease
by
41.4
%
46.0
%,
while
duration
be
reduced
approximately
45
70
days.
The
freeze
onset
seasonal
soil
expected
delayed
10
22
days,
thaw
likely
advance
19
32
Moreover,
depth
5.2
10.9
cm
per
decade,
active
layer
increase
8.2
15.5
decade.
Regarding
hydrology,
runoff
exhibits
decreasing
trend
until
complete
melt-out
resulting
total
15.6
18.1
%.
Subsequently,
shows
increasing
trend,
primarily
due
precipitation.
Permafrost
causes
low
early
thawing
season
decrease,
discontinuous
baseflow
recession
gradually
transitions
into
linear
recessions,
leading
baseflow.
results
highlight
future.
enhance
our
understanding
cold-region
have
potential
assist
addressing
challenges
posed
change.