Impact of close interpersonal contact on COVID-19 incidence: Evidence from 1 year of mobile device data

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: Jan. 7, 2022

Close contact between people is the primary route for transmission of SARS-CoV-2, virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We quantified interpersonal at population level using mobile device geolocation data. computed frequency (within 6 feet) in Connecticut during February 2020 to January 2021 and aggregated counts events by area residence. When incorporated into a SEIR-type model COVID-19 transmission, rate accurately predicted cases towns. Contact explains initial wave infections March April, drop June August, local outbreaks August September, broad statewide resurgence September December, decline 2021. The fits dynamics better than other mobility metrics. data can help guide social distancing testing resource allocation.

Language: Английский

---

The past, current and future epidemiological dynamic of SARS-CoV-2

Oxford Open Immunology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2022

Abstract SARS-CoV-2, the agent of COVID-19 pandemic, emerged in late 2019 China, and rapidly spread throughout world to reach all continents. As virus expanded its novel human host, viral lineages diversified through accumulation around two mutations a month on average. Different have replaced each other since start with most successful Alpha, Delta Omicron variants concern (VoCs) sequentially sweeping high global prevalence. Neither Alpha nor was characterized by strong immune escape, their success coming mainly from higher transmissibility. is far more prone evasion primarily due increased ability (re-)infect hosts prior immunity. host immunity reaches levels globally vaccination infection, epidemic expected transition pandemic regime an endemic one where seasonality waning immunization are anticipated become primary forces shaping future SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics. In this review, we consider body evidence origins, tropism, epidemiology, genomic immunogenetic evolution including assessment coronaviruses infecting humans. Considering what known so far, conclude delineating scenarios for dynamic ranging good—circulation fifth ‘common cold’ coronavirus potentially low virulence, bad—a situation roughly comparable seasonal flu, ugly—extensive diversification into serotypes long-term high-level endemicity.

Language: Английский

---

Comparison of Saliva and Midturbinate Swabs for Detection of SARS-CoV-2

Microbiology Spectrum, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(2)

Published: March 21, 2022

The findings of this manuscript are increasingly important with new variants that appear to have shorter incubation periods emerging, which may be more prone detection in saliva before nasal swabs. Therefore, there is an urgent need provide the science support use a method highly sensitive and widely acceptable public improve screening rates early detection.

Language: Английский

---

Contributing to health system resilience during pandemics via purchasing and supply strategies: an exploratory system dynamics approach

BMC Health Services Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 24(1)

Published: Jan. 24, 2024

Abstract Background Health systems worldwide struggled to obtain sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE) and ventilators during the COVID-19 pandemic due global supply chain disruptions. Our study’s aim was create a proof-of-concept model that would simulate effects of strategies under various scenarios, ultimately help decision-makers decide on alternative for future similar health system related crises. Methods We developed dynamics linked disease transmission structure (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered (SEIR)) with availability critical supplies in hospitals; thereby connecting care demand (patients’ hospitals), (available supplies). To inform structure, we used data decisions events taking place surrounding purchase, supply, PPE first phase within English national system. exploratory modelling analysis assess uncertainties different scenarios. Strategies analysed were: (i) purchasing from world market or (ii) through direct tender, (iii) stockpiling, (iv) domestic production, (v) supporting innovative strategies, (vi) loaning private sector. Results found our long-lasting shortage is likely be apparent When considering worst-case scenario, shows tender have greatest influence reducing shortages, compared producing domestically strategies. However, these are affected most by delays their shipment time set-up. Conclusion demonstrated using approach can helpful identifying contribute preparedness responsiveness results suggest improve systems’ resilience pandemics resource-constrained situations, develop crisis frameworks propose plan action consequently accelerate procurement processes other governance health-related crises; implement diverse supplier frameworks; (re)consider stockpiling. This demonstrates importance including as part response activities resilience.

Language: Английский

---

Asymptomatic COVID-19 infection: diagnosis, transmission, population characteristics

BMJ Supportive & Palliative Care, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 14(e1), P. e220 - e227

Published: July 30, 2021

A novel coronavirus first discovered in late December 2019 has spread to many countries around the world. An increasing number of asymptomatic patients have been reported and their ability virus proven. This brings major challenges control transmission. The discovery with COVID-19 are key issues future epidemic prevention recovery. In this narrative review, we summarise existing knowledge about put forward detection methods that suitable for finding such patients. Besides, compared characteristics transmissibility different populations order find best screening, diagnosis measures populations. Comprehensive preventive advice is also provided prevent infection from

Language: Английский

---