Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 60(3)

Published: June 28, 2022

Abstract Observation‐based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives addressed impacts of in parts EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering wide range timescales, phenomena future pathways. Our assessment is based on revised analysis recent observations projections extensive overview scientific literature causes effects regional change. Greenhouse gas emissions EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those European Union, hence contributing significantly to Over past half‐century especially during decades, has warmed faster than other inhabited regions. At same time, changes hydrological cycle become evident. The observed temperature increase about 0.45°C per decade projected continue, although strong global greenhouse emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition mean conditions, call attention extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include strongly increasing severity duration heatwaves, droughts dust storms, well torrential rain that can trigger flash floods. review complemented by discussion atmospheric pollution land‐use region, including urbanization, desertification forest fires. Finally, identify sectors may be critically affected formulate adaptation research recommendations toward greater resilience

Language: Английский

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How well do the CMIP6 models simulate dust aerosols?

Atmospheric chemistry and physics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 22(3), P. 2095 - 2119

Published: Feb. 15, 2022

Abstract. Mineral dust impacts key processes in the Earth system, including radiation budget, clouds, and nutrient cycles. We evaluate aerosols 16 models participating sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) against multiple reanalyses observations. note that both observations used here have their limitations particularly emission deposition are poorly constrained. Most models, multi-model ensemble mean (MEM), capture spatial patterns seasonal cycles global well. However, large uncertainties inter-model diversity found. For example, emissions, primarily driven by model-simulated surface winds, vary a factor 5 across while MEM estimate is double amount reanalyses. The ranges CMIP6 emission, deposition, burden, optical depth (DOD) larger than previous generations models. Models present considerable disagreement over North China America. Here, DOD values overestimated most with 1.2–1.7 times compared to satellite reanalysis datasets. Such overestimates can reach up individual also fail reproduce some features regional distribution, such as accumulation along southern edge Himalayas. Overall, there still models' simulated processes, which feature inconsistent biases throughout life cycle between relationship connecting mass DOD. Our results imply modelled becoming more uncertain become sophisticated. More detailed output size-resolved variables particular, relating future intercomparison projects, needed enable better constraints potential identification observationally constrained links properties.

Language: Английский

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Monitoring and simulation of a 7-day dust episode and associated dust radiative forcing over the Middle East via synergy of satellite observations, reanalysis datasets and regional/numerical models

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 107948 - 107948

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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A Record-Breaking Trans-Atlantic African Dust Plume Associated with Atmospheric Circulation Extremes in June 2020

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 102(7), P. E1340 - E1356

Published: April 12, 2021

Abstract High concentrations of dust can affect climate and human health, yet our understanding extreme events is still limited. A record-breaking trans-Atlantic African plume occurred during 14–28 June 2020, greatly degrading air quality over large areas the Caribbean Basin United States. Daily PM 2.5 exceeded 50 µ g m −3 in several Gulf States, while index reached unhealthy levels for sensitive groups more than 11 states. The magnitude duration aerosol optical depth tropical North Atlantic Ocean were greatest ever observed summer past 18 years based on satellite retrievals. This event associated with both enhanced emissions western Africa atmospheric circulation extremes that favor long-range transport. An exceptionally strong easterly jet wave activities export across toward middle to lower troposphere, a westward extension subtropical high intensified low-level further transport descended, shallower from into Over Africa, increased are strongly surface winds source regions reduced vegetation coverage Sahel. While there uncertainties assessing future trends emissions, model-projected changes warmer generally

Language: Английский

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How the unparalleled dust storm over the Arabian Peninsula in May 2022 exacerbated the record-breaking heatwave in China in the ensuing summer

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 108054 - 108054

Published: March 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Climatology of the Sistan Levar wind: Atmospheric dynamics driving its onset, duration and withdrawal

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 260, P. 105711 - 105711

Published: May 30, 2021

Language: Английский

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Synoptic Causes and Socio-Economic Consequences of a Severe Dust Storm in the Middle East

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(11), P. 1435 - 1435

Published: Oct. 30, 2021

Dust storms represent one of the most severe, if underrated, natural hazards in drylands. This study uses ground observational data from meteorological stations and airports (SYNOP METARs), satellite observations (MODIS level-3 gridded atmosphere daily products CALIPSO) reanalysis (ERA5) to analyze synoptic meteorology a severe Middle Eastern dust storm April 2015. Details related socio-economic impacts, gathered largely news media reports, are also documented. affected at least 14 countries an area 10 million km2. The considerable impacts were felt across eight health, transport, education, construction, leisure energy production. Hospitals Saudi Arabia, Qatar UAE experienced surge cases respiratory complaints ophthalmic emergencies, as well vehicular trauma due increase motor vehicle accidents. Airports seven had delay, divert cancel flights during storm. paper is first attempt catalogue such on multiple sectors any part world. type transboundary individual events necessary improve our understanding their so inform policymakers working this emerging disaster risk management issue.

Language: Английский

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Weakened dust activity over China and Mongolia from 2001 to 2020 associated with climate change and land-use management

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 16(12), P. 124056 - 124056

Published: Nov. 19, 2021

Abstract Dust cycle is actively involved in the Earth’s climate and environmental systems. However, spatiotemporal pattern recent trend of dust emission from drylands East Asia remain unclear. By calculating aerosol optical depth (DOD) newly released moderate resolution imaging spectrometer products, we obtain a relatively long satellite-based time series activity 2001 to 2020 over China Mongolia. We identify pronounced interannual variability that consistent with ground-based meteorological observations study area. A substantial reduction spring northern also found, which seems accordance long-term weakening since 1970s has been attributed wind speed decline by previous studies. spatial trends both annual mean seasonal during last 20 years divergent, most significant diminishing found north-central where large-scale vegetation restoration projects have implemented. It indicates addition potential contribution change, land-use change plays an important role inhibition emission. The current results show occurs intensively spring, followed summer weaker autumn winter. winter increased significantly NW despite overall decreasing other two seasons, probably associated different atmospheric land surface conditions. Finally, DOD distribution reveals Tarim Basin, Gobi Qaidam Basin Deserts are three major sources Asia. Compared ground spatially limited distributed unevenly, remote sensing provides complement, it can serve as reference for identification using methods such geochemical fingerprint modeling.

Language: Английский

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Black carbon-climate interactions regulate dust burdens over India revealed during COVID-19

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: April 5, 2022

Abstract India as a hotspot for air pollution has heavy black carbon (BC) and dust (DU) loadings. BC been identified to significantly impact the Indian climate. However, whether BC-climate interactions regulate DU during premonsoon season is unclear. Here, using long-term Reanalysis data, we show that positively correlated northern while negatively southern BC. We further identify mechanism of BC-dust-climate revealed COVID-19. reduction in due lockdown decreases solar heating atmosphere increases surface albedo Tibetan Plateau (TP), inducing descending atmospheric motion. Colder from TP together with warmer heated by biomass burning results easterly wind anomalies, which reduces transport Middle East Sahara local emissions. The aerosol-climate delay outbreak subsequent summer monsoon.

Language: Английский

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Understanding day–night differences in dust aerosols over the dust belt of North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia

Atmospheric chemistry and physics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 23(9), P. 5435 - 5466

Published: May 16, 2023

Abstract. Utilizing the well-calibrated, high-spectral-resolution equal-quality performance of daytime and nighttime (09:30 21:30 local solar Equator-crossing time (local ECT)) products Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer (IASI) from Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), this study investigates day–night differences in dust aerosols over global belt North Africa, Middle East, Asia. Both optical depth (DOD) DOD at 10 µm show high consistency with lunar observations coarse-mode aerosol (CAOD) AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) sites across belt, correlation coefficients 0.8–0.9 for most sites. IASI layer height a significant (95 % confidence level) difference major sources within belt. Daytime central to northern Sahara, eastern Arabian Peninsula, Taklamakan Desert is significantly higher than that but lower southern Sahel Guinea Coast western Indian subcontinent annual mean. The magnitude larger more evident boreal winter spring other seasons. positive (i.e., values nighttime) Asia are likely associated greater emissions driven by uplift potential (DUP) stronger wind speeds during daytime. Dust heights demonstrate negative source regions Coast, parts large subcontinent. deeper planetary boundary convective instability nighttime, which promotes vertical transport mixing aerosols. corresponding indicates possible dilution when they transported altitudes convection where susceptible horizontal transport. Ground-based surface PM10 concentration CAOD exhibit spatially varying diurnal cycle concentrations generally peak late morning afternoon midnight early around timings largely consistent DOD. It also found reanalysis (e.g., Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis Research Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) ECMWF Composition Reanalysis 4 (EAC4)) failed capture except small hotspots Africa.

Language: Английский

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