Modelling risks posed by wind turbines and power lines to soaring birds: the black stork (Ciconia nigra) in Italy as a case study

Biodiversity and Conservation, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 29(6), P. 1959 - 1976

Published: March 10, 2020

Language: Английский

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Expanding or shrinking? range shifts in wild ungulates under climate change in Pamir-Karakoram mountains, Pakistan

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 16(12), P. e0260031 - e0260031

Published: Dec. 31, 2021

Climate change is expected to impact a large number of organisms in many ecosystems, including several threatened mammals. A better understanding climate impacts on species can make conservation efforts more effective. The Himalayan ibex (Capra sibirica) and blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) are economically important wild ungulates northern Pakistan because they sought-after hunting trophies. However, both due human-induced factors, these factors aggravate under changing the High Himalayas. In this study, we investigated populations Pamir-Karakoram mountains order (i) update validate their geographical distributions through empirical data; (ii) understand range shifts scenarios; (iii) predict future habitats aid long-term planning. Presence records target were collected camera trapping sightings field. We constructed Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model presence record six key climatic variables current sheep. Two representative concentration pathways (4.5 8.5) two-time projections (2050 2070) used for predictions. Our results indicated that ca. 37% 9% total study area (Gilgit-Baltistan) was suitable conditions sheep, respectively. Annual mean precipitation determinant habitat ungulate species. Under scenarios, will lose significant part habitats, particularly Hindu Kush ranges. ranges serve as refugia This shall remain focus protect Pakistan's mountain ungulates.

Language: Английский

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Efficacy of species distribution models (SDMs) for ecological realms to ascertain biological conservation and practices

Biodiversity and Conservation, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 32(10), P. 3053 - 3087

Published: June 20, 2023

Language: Английский

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Climate change extinctions

Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 386(6726), P. 1123 - 1128

Published: Dec. 5, 2024

Climate change is expected to cause irreversible changes biodiversity, but predicting those risks remains uncertain. I synthesized 485 studies and more than 5 million projections produce a quantitative global assessment of climate extinctions. With increased certainty, this meta-analysis suggests that extinctions will accelerate rapidly if temperatures exceed 1.5°C. The highest-emission scenario would threaten approximately one-third species, globally. Amphibians; species from mountain, island, freshwater ecosystems; inhabiting South America, Australia, New Zealand face the greatest threats. In line with predictions, has contributed an increasing proportion observed since 1970. Besides limiting greenhouse gases, pinpointing which protect first be critical for preserving biodiversity until anthropogenic halted reversed.

Language: Английский

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Climate change, range shifts, and the disruption of a pollinator-plant complex

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: Oct. 1, 2019

Language: Английский

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Modeling current and future global distribution of Chrysomya bezziana under changing climate

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: March 18, 2020

In the last few years, significant changes in climate have had a disparate effect on biodiversity. The influences of these are random and unpredictable. resurgence insect pests, especially medical veterinary importance, often corresponds with changes. Old World screwworm, Chrysomya bezziana, is one most important myiasis-causing flies that parasitize warm-blooded animals Eastern Hemisphere. We used spatial distribution modeling approach to estimate consequences climatic potential geographic this throughout world currently future. A Maxent model occurrence data from 104 localities 19 factors predict suitable habitat regions world. Two representative concentration pathways 2.6 8.5, were forecast future C. bezziana 2050 2070. for provided satisfactory result, high value Area Under Curve equal 0.855 (±0.001). Furthermore, True Skilled Statistics 0.67. These values indicate influence ecology fly species. Jackknife test indicated temperature variables play role dynamics. resultant models areas at risk invasion by serious medical/veterinary issues, countries large livestock production.

Language: Английский

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Moving north in China: The habitat of Pedicularis kansuensis in the context of climate change

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 697, P. 133979 - 133979

Published: Aug. 19, 2019

Language: Английский

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Climate change-based models predict range shifts in the distribution of the only Asian plethodontid salamander: Karsenia koreana

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: Aug. 14, 2019

Abstract Populations see their range fluctuate in relation to environmental variations, including climate change, and survival is linked the maintenance of large enough populations broad distributions during these variations. Most amphibian are threatened by numerous ecological anthropogenic variables acting synergy with change. Accumulating basic data such as enables development population dynamics, themselves resulting on adequate conservation plans. Karsenia koreana only known Asian plethodontic salamander, occurring a very restricted area only. Based presence data, we created an model using six bioclimatic factors low multicollinearity define habitat species, modelled predicted suitability Korean landscape following four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) predicting change scenarios based CO 2 concentrations 2050 2070. The maximum entropy for current distribution produced considerably wider than distribution. projected ranges each RCP indicated marked increases, decreases shifts areas suitable landscapes due lowest prediction resulted increase area, although potentially without connectivity populations, while highest predictions decrease. Our results highlight potential negative impact thus requiring updates plans K. . methods used here can be replicated any land-dwelling our reflect expected most amphibians northern hemisphere.

Language: Английский

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Using endemic freshwater fishes as proxies of their ecosystems to identify high priority rivers for conservation under climate change

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 112, P. 106137 - 106137

Published: Feb. 4, 2020

Freshwater ecosystems are among the most endangered on Earth and vulnerable to climate change. Studies have shown that change has already altered phenology distribution of freshwater species. However, there still major gaps in our understanding potential impacts their organisms. fishes were used as effective indicators for identifying degree, direction scale changes aquatic ecosystem quality health. they rarely determine sensitive using species modeling. We modeled current future 15 endemic fish Iran identify winners losers high priority rivers conservation under In addition, we assessed elevational Our results showed five will lose some parts suitable range while ten gain new habitats. Considering restricted range, special concern, so this study can be fishes. Species which identified negatively affected by should prioritized monitoring subject programs. Using reductions size predicted, 20 targets actions reduce negative fish.

Language: Английский

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Modeling current and future potential distributions of desert locust Schistocerca gregaria (Forskål) under climate change scenarios using MaxEnt

Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 14(3), P. 399 - 409

Published: May 30, 2021

Climate changes indulge the spread of pests outside their active range by increasing, decreasing, or shifting appropriate climatic conditions and niche a particular species. Modeling future potential distribution using MaxEnt under different climate change scenarios is an effective method for prevention management protocol. This study was conducted to predict Schistocerca gregaria in better plans based on two socio-economic pathways (SSPs) 2050 2070. To evaluate predictive performance model, area receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) used. We used 226 occurrence records 9 bioclimatic variables simulate current distributions S. gregaria. The precision model highly significant, with mean AUC value ranging from 0.929 0.940 all evaluated models. jackknife test showed that Bio 11 Bio18 contributed 51.4% 17.3% model. A total 2,557,856 km2 (1.69%) were recognized as high habitats However, 2070 high-potential areas would decrease both SSP scenarios.

Language: Английский

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