Fungus under a Changing Climate: Modeling the Current and Future Global Distribution of Fusarium oxysporum Using Geographical Information System Data

Microorganisms, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(2), P. 468 - 468

Published: Feb. 13, 2023

The impact of climate change on biodiversity has been the subject numerous research in recent years. multiple elements are expected to affect all levels biodiversity, including microorganisms. common worldwide fungus Fusarium oxysporum colonizes plant roots as well soil and several other substrates. It causes predominant vascular wilt disease different strategic crops such banana, tomato, palm, even cotton, thereby leading severe losses. So, a robust maximum entropy algorithm was implemented well-known modeling program Maxent forecast current future global distribution F. under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 8.5) for 2050 2070. model calibrated using 1885 occurrence points. resulting models were fit with AUC TSS values equal 0.9 (±0.001) 0.7, respectively. Increasing temperatures due warming caused differences habitat suitability between distributions oxysporum, especially Europe. most effective parameter this annual mean temperature (Bio 1); two-dimensional niche analysis indicated that wide precipitation range because it can live both dry rainy habitats which certain limits. predicted shifts should act an alarm sign decision makers, particularly countries depend staple harmed by fungus.

Language: Английский

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Application of species distribution models to estimate and manage the Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) habitat in the Hindu Kush Mountains, Pakistan

European Journal of Wildlife Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 70(3)

Published: May 31, 2024

Language: Английский

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Prediction of potential invasion of two weeds of the genus Avena in Asia under climate change based on Maxent

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 950, P. 175192 - 175192

Published: Aug. 5, 2024

Avena sterilis L. (A. sterilis) and ludoviciana Dur. ludoviciana) are extremely invasive weeds with strong competitive ability multiple transmission routes. Both species can invade a variety of dryland crops, including wheat, corn, beans. Asia, as the world's major food-producing continent, will experience significant losses to agricultural production if it is invaded by these on large scale. This study used MaxEnt model ArcGIS map distribution suitable habitats two in Asia under climate change conditions. The constructed comprised four levels, total 25 index-level indicator factors evaluate invasion risk species. results showed that for both was highly dependent precipitation temperature. Under warming conditions, although overall area predicted decrease compared current period, there still moderately or areas. Asian countries need provide early warning areas increases moderate zones background change. If already an suitability original increased, this should be closely monitored, control measures taken prevent further spread deterioration.

Language: Английский

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Distribution changes of Ormosia microphylla under different climatic scenarios

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Jan. 21, 2025

Ormosia microphylla is a nationally prioritized wild plant in China but effects of likely future climate change have been poorly studied. Here distribution data O. and environmental with an optimized MaxEnt maximum entropy model were used to predict potentially suitable areas under current scenarios. The results showed that warming, the total area for might gradually increase. In three periods (2030s (2021–2040), 2050s (2041–2060) 2090s (2081–2100)), medium high different scenarios generally expanding trend, while low mostly decreasing trend. At same time, potential shown certain degree migration trend towards higher latitudes north northwest, as well altitudes. research will provide support protection germplasm resources development artificial cultivation techniques microphylla, theoretical basis other rare endangered plants.

Language: Английский

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Evaluation of ecological consequences on the global distribution of Staphylococcus aureus Rosenbach 1884 due to climate change, using Maxent modeling

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: April 3, 2025

Abstract Staphylococcus aureus is a primary cause of many infections in humans, and its rising prevalence drug resistance are serious public health concerns. While there evidence that climate change can influence the distribution abundance microbial species, precise effects on S. not well characterized. The purpose this study to predict potential global 2050 2070 using GIS Maxent modeling. occurrence data was acquired from databases coupled with bioclimatic variables simulate current future habitat suitability under several scenarios (RCP 2.6 8.5). modeling approach used forecast geographical patterns distribution, providing insights into locations may see increased essential species as result change. study’s findings be inform measures focused surveillance activities aimed at reducing burden infection.

Language: Английский

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MaxEnt Modeling to Predict the Current and Future Distribution of Pomatosace filicula under Climate Change Scenarios on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Plants, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 11(5), P. 670 - 670

Published: Feb. 28, 2022

As an important Tibetan medicine and a secondary protected plant in China, Pomatosace filicula is endemic to the country mainly distributed Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). However, global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions might lead extinction of P. filicula. To understand potential spatial distribution future warming scenarios, we used MaxEnt model simulate changes its suitable habitat that would occur 2050 2070 using four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios five models. The results showed QTP currently contains for will continue do so future. Under RCP2.6 scenario, area increase but shrink slightly 2070, with average reduction 2.7%. under RCP8.5 unsuitable expand 54.65% 68.20% respectively. RCP4.5 RCP6.0 were similar, increasing approximately 20% 2070. these two moderate RCPs, total be greater than 2050. top three environmental factors impacting altitude, annual precipitation (BIO12) temperature range (BIO7). cumulative contribution rate was as high 82.8%, indicating they key affecting adaptability filicula, grows well damp cold environments. Due warming, become warmer drier; thus, growing move toward higher elevations areas are humid cold. These found near Three-River Region. Future aggravate deterioration species' survival risk. This study describes provides basis protection endangered plants QTP.

Language: Английский

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Modeling the Potential Global Distribution of Honeybee Pest, Galleria mellonella under Changing Climate

Insects, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(5), P. 484 - 484

Published: May 22, 2022

Beekeeping is essential for the global food supply, yet honeybee health and hive numbers are increasingly threatened by habitat alteration, climate change, agrochemical overuse, pathogens, diseases, insect pests. However, pests diseases that have unknown spatial distribution influences blamed diminishing colonies over world. The greater wax moth (GWM), Galleria mellonella, a pervasive pest of honeybee, Apis mellifera. It has an international causes severe loss to beekeeping industry. GWM larvae burrow into edge unsealed cells pollen, bee brood, honey through midrib comb. Burrowing leave behind masses webs cause leak out entangle emerging bees, resulting in death starvation, phenomenon called galleriasis. In this study, maximum entropy algorithm implemented (Maxent) model was used predict throughout Two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 8.5 three models (GCMs), were forecast 2050 2070. Maxent provided high value Area Under Curve equal 0.8 ± 0.001, which satisfactory result. Furthermore, True Skilled Statistics assured perfection resultant with 0.7. These values indicated significant correlation between ecology species. also showed very suitability hot-spot exporting importing countries. we extrapolated economic impact such both feral wild populations consequently market

Language: Английский

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Prediction of global potential suitable habitats of Nicotiana alata Link et Otto based on MaxEnt model

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: March 24, 2023

Nicotiana alata Link et Otto, widely used in landscaping, is not only of great ornamental value but also high commercial and medical value. The global potential habitat N. the environmental factors affecting its distribution are that clear at present. To provide a reference for reasonable extensive planting now future, MaxEnt model was to predict suitable habitats under current future climate conditions, respectively, based on geographic data world bioclimatic variables. results showed mean temperature driest quarter (bio9), precipitation month (bio14), seasonality (bio15) max warmest (bio5), were key variables governing alata. mainly distributed Europe, United States, southeastern South America, China conditions. Compared with decreased SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 scenario increased SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5 climatic scenarios. provided valuable information theoretical

Language: Английский

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Locusta migratoria (L.) (Orthoptera) in a warming world: unravelling the ecological consequences of climate change using GIS

Biodiversity Data Journal, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12

Published: March 5, 2024

The migratory locust, Locusta migratoria (L.), a significant grasshopper species known for its ability to form large swarms and cause extensive damage crops vegetation, is subject the influence of climate change. This research paper employs geographic information system (GIS) MaxEnt ecological modelling techniques assess impact change on distribution patterns L. . Occurrence data environmental variables are collected analysed create predictive models current future species. study highlights crucial role factors, particularly temperature precipitation, in determining locust's distribution. exhibit high-performance indicators, accurately predicting potential habitat suitability Additionally, specific bioclimatic variables, such as mean annual identified factors influencing species' presence. generated maps indicate how this will invade new regions especially Europe. Such results predict risk destructive many agriculture communities direct result warming world. provides valuable insights into complex relationship between locust enabling development effective strategies management early warning systems mitigate ecosystems.

Language: Английский

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Modeling the Invasion of the Large Hive Beetle, Oplostomusfuligineus, into North Africa and South Europe under a Changing Climate

Insects, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(4), P. 275 - 275

Published: March 24, 2021

Some beetle species can attack honeybee colonies, causing severe damage to beekeeping. These pests include Oplostomus fuligineus, which is also known as the Large Hive Beetle (LHB). This native Sub-Saharan Africa and has recently been recorded in some parts of North Africa. It feeds mainly on young bee larvae stored food within weak colonies. The present work sheds light current future distribution (from 2050 2070) this South Europe using modeling. Maxent was used model invasion LHB. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 126 585 were models showed satisfactory results with a high Area Under Curve (AUC) value (0.85 ± 0.02). Furthermore, True Skill Statistics (TSS) equal 0.87. maps risk because temperature variation most Europe. predicted LHB into other countries, through southern predictive will help quarantine authorities highly relevant countries prevent expansion pest outside its natural range.

Language: Английский

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