Multiple Models of European Marine Fish Stocks: Regional Winners and Losers in a Future Climate

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 31(4)

Published: April 1, 2025

Climate change continues to alter the productivity of commercially and culturally important fisheries with major consequences for food security coastal economies. We provide first, multi-model projections changes in distribution 18 key fish stocks across seven European regional seas spanning Mediterranean Arctic, using 11 state-of-the-art bio-ecological models. Our indicate species- region-specific abundance distributions these by mid- late 21st century. The varied responses are caused differences species' physiology, web dynamics, physical habitat characteristics. Important drivers include not only warming Europe's (from 1°C 3°C RCP 4.5, 2°C 4°C 8.5 2100) primary but also oxygen-limited growth, pH, benthic dissolved organic carbon. Warming altered levels secondary production projected lead declines some (Norwegian Barents Sea herring) increases others (Bay Biscay anchovy). While temperate cold-water decline markedly regions (e.g., North Sea, Western Mediterranean), immigration species from south and/or increase warm-water may offer new opportunities fisheries. Species-level will likely have ecosystem-level that yet be fully assessed, sub-areas more pronounced due local processes captured projections. Projections consistent despite model structures, results our analysis align other modelling exercises while delving into details often overlooked at or spatial level. This represents a novel approach projecting impacts climate on fisheries, which should considered future efforts support climate-ready management strategies marine stocks.

Language: Английский

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Food web assessments in the Baltic Sea: Models bridging the gap between indicators and policy needs

AMBIO, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 51(7), P. 1687 - 1697

Published: Jan. 29, 2022

Abstract Ecosystem-based management requires understanding of food webs. Consequently, assessment web status is mandatory according to the European Union’s Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) for EU Member States. However, how best monitor and assess webs in practise has proven a challenging question. Here, we review current indicators models, discuss whether models can help addressing shortcomings indicator-based assessments, using Baltic Sea as an example region. We show that although MSFD was designed use alone, they are currently poorly fit purpose, because lack interconnectivity trophic guilds. then argue multiple published this region have high potential provide additional coherence definition good environmental status, evaluation uncertainties, estimates unsampled indicator values, but also identify limitations stand way more formal implementation approach. close with discussion which capacity purpose Sea, forward towards combination measurable modelling approaches assessments.

Language: Английский

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Overview of the Eutrophication in Romanian Lakes and Reservoirs

Limnological Review, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 24(1), P. 76 - 104

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

In this paper, attention is drawn to the deterioration of Romanian surface water ecosystems due eutrophication, an important environmental issue both at national and international levels. An inventory existing studies dealing with eutrophication lakes reservoirs in Romania made, aiming identify main problems facing monitoring, classifying, managing eutrophic ecosystems. On Web Science, keyword “Eutrophication”, “Romania” as country/region, leads 50 publications, which are analyzed review. The number articles found does not reflect real represented by Romania. At a level, only 126 have been monitored assessed between 2018 2020, terms ecological status/ecological potential. Thus, global evaluation, 77% natural 33% artificial ones do reach quality objectives. results study showed that frequency measurements taken indicators strongest point measurement campaigns, it sufficient for diagnosis lakes, supplementary measures must be undertaken better understand mitigate phenomenon.

Language: Английский

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Reduced predation and competition from herring may have contributed to the increase of three-spined stickleback in the Baltic Sea

ICES Journal of Marine Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Nov. 15, 2024

Abstract In many areas of the Baltic Sea, three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) has increased several fold since early 2000s. Two major planktivores Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) and European sprat (Sprattus sprattus), may interact with via competition for food predation, but potential implications at population level are still unknown. Here, we explored interactions between stickleback, herring, using (i) diet analyses (ii) fish biomass estimates from hydroacoustics 2001–2019 covering largest Sea basins—the Central Bothnian Sea. The revealed that is an important prey large along Swedish coast, comprising up to 64% individuals >22 cm. We found a negative influence (>18 cm) on in Baltic, relationship small (<18 (pooled) decline after mid-1990s could have contributed increase reduced predation competition. Overall, be underappreciated piscivore, high fishing pressure generate cascading effects lower trophic levels.

Language: Английский

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Atlantis Ecosystem Model Summit 2022: Report from a workshop

Ecological Modelling, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 483, P. 110442 - 110442

Published: July 7, 2023

Ecosystem models can play a supportive and informative role in the implementation of integrated approaches to marine resource management. Atlantis, an end-to-end biogeochemical ecosystem model, is capable exploring wide range aspects interactions. To aid testing development Atlantis as central tool for management advance global partnerships living management, second International Modeling Summit gathered 84 participants from 13 countries May 2022. The main outcomes 2022 include: fortifying sense community, training 37 participants, disseminating tools currently available needed processing inputs/outputs, identifying limitations use-cases moving forward with research pertaining climate change, fisheries synergies artificial intelligence machine learning.

Language: Английский

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Closing certain essential fish habitats to fishing could be a win-win for fish stocks and their fisheries – Insights from the western Baltic cod fishery

Fisheries Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 268, P. 106853 - 106853

Published: Sept. 18, 2023

The management of the western Baltic cod relies on a combination regulation tools, including seasonal spawning fishing closure. complex population dynamics stock have nevertheless been posing considerable challenges to design closures, and actual benefits closure are still unclear. Often, only biological indicators used evaluate effectiveness closure, without considering socio-economic effects fishery. In this study, we applied Species Distribution Model (SDM) integrating commercial fishery research survey data 15-year time series multiple alternative spatial all based identifying persistent essential fish habitats (i.e., nursery, spawning, feeding grounds). We further spatial-explicit Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) tool DISPLACE contrast outcomes these identify which provided optimal balance between demands sustainability. Our results indicated that closures benefitted fisheries stock. Although fishermen redirected their effort some extent other stocks, increased profits were largely driven by catches as consequence reconstructed structure enhanced biomass. conclude more linked size, than purpose protecting or

Language: Английский

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Long‐term monitoring of pikeperch (Sander lucioperca) populations under increasing temperatures and predator abundances in the Finnish coastal waters of the Baltic Sea

Ecology Of Freshwater Fish, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 32(4), P. 750 - 764

Published: April 23, 2023

Abstract The Baltic Sea has been under intense environmental changes in the recent decades, such as climate change, eutrophication and increasing abundance of top‐predators, which pose serious challenges to its aquatic life. For informed conservation measures sustainable yields, we need understand how populations are being affected. Accordingly, used long‐term data series (covering period between 1980 2021) assess these have affected an ecologically economically important predatory fish, pikeperch ( Sander lucioperca ), coastal waters Finland northern Sea. We investigated estimates recruitment, commercial recreational catch statistics growth mortality rates. found a clear increase total catches northernmost part Finnish coast (Bothnian Bay) that were not explained by fishing effort, indicating increased abundance, most likely due higher water temperature. In southern study area (Archipelago Sea), density‐dependent factors prevented development particularly strong year classes, despite beneficial conditions warming seawater consecutive warm summers. Individual younger age groups, contributing upward trend spawning population biomass. also uncovered declining area, abundances cormorants seals, reduced mortality. These results show is one species has, thus far, benefited from change Sea, strengthening role ecosystem.

Language: Английский

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A northeast United States Atlantis marine ecosystem model with ocean reanalysis and ocean color forcing

Ecological Modelling, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 471, P. 110038 - 110038

Published: June 14, 2022

The northeast United States Atlantis model (NEUSv2) is an end-to-end ecosystem that can simulate biogeochemical, ecological, fishery, management, and socio-economic processes within marine ecosystems. As a major update to the original model, NEUSv2 includes changes model's functional group definitions forcing data. first use satellite-ocean-color-derived phytoplankton size class was tuned specifically for region force primary production. Additionally, physical ocean variables (currents, temperature, salinity) were updated using high-resolution global reanalysis. Despite its coarse resolution, capable of reproducing broad spatial patterns seen in biological sources, with exception some circulation features. produced plausible zooplankton planktivore biomass, stable lower trophic food web, recent trends biomass. meets calibration criteria persistence long-term stability Given success this new approach, we detail observations challenges regarding scale-related processes, data assimilation, calibration. We also discuss possible tradeoffs scope, calibration, availability feedback mechanisms. This hindcast well suited exploring ecosystem-level sensitivity testing alternative biogeochemical forcing. Further developments will improve performance higher levels.

Language: Английский

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Current species protection does not serve its porpoise—Knowledge gaps on the impact of pressures on the Critically Endangered Baltic Proper harbour porpoise population, and future recommendations for its protection

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(9)

Published: Sept. 1, 2024

Abstract Successful management requires information on pressures that threaten a species and areas where conservation actions are needed. The Baltic Proper harbour porpoise population was first listed as Critically Endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature in 2008. Now, 16 years later, there is no change status despite ample policy calling its protection an urgent need action to protect this population. Here, we provide overview current population, highlight knowledge gaps impact pressures, make recommendations anthropogenic activities. Based exceeded limit mortality, high concentrations contaminants Sea, combined with reductions prey availability increases underwater noise, it inferred likely still decreasing size becomes more urgent. As bycatch unprotected explosions result direct they must be reduced zero. Inputs contaminants, waste, existing emerging noise sources should minimised regulated. Additionally, ecosystem‐based sustainable fisheries paramount order ensure availability, maintain healthy Sea. Stranding networks routinely assess individuals genetic assignment health expanded, identify rare samples from Knowledge scarce population‐level each threat, along cumulative multiple However, instruments sufficient apply effective now. While main pressure impacting needed across all Extinction choice: decision‐makers have fate genetically biologically distinct marine mammal their hands.

Language: Английский

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A shifting chessboard: Projections of prawn, capelin, mesopelagic fish, zooplankton, and their Nordic and Barents Seas food web under climate change

Progress In Oceanography, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 103387 - 103387

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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