Individual Transilience in the Face of the COVID-19 Pandemic DOI Creative Commons
Valentina Lozano Nasi, Lise Jans, Linda Steg

et al.

Journal of Environmental Psychology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 93, P. 102188 - 102188

Published: Nov. 19, 2023

Transilience, the perceived capacity to persist, adapt flexibly, and positively transform in face of an adversity, is a promising construct for understanding human adaptation climate change risks. However, question remains whether transilience also relevant other adversities. In this paper, we investigate role context COVID-19 pandemic, which posed more urgent acute threat individuals compared change. We conducted two studies Italy Netherlands examine people perceive across different time points countries, severity pandemic government measures varied. Furthermore, studied relationship between adaptive responses, including individual collective behaviors, cognitive coping, well-being, positive personal The results suggest that COVID-19, higher promotes responses mental health Netherlands, but not Italy. Moreover, longitudinal analyses indicate may be causally related future behaviors well-being. These findings robust predictor well-being adversities, although depend on specific context. Future research directions theoretical implications are discussed.

Language: Английский

Assessing the Impact of Haulage Drivers in Uganda's COVID-19 Delta Wave DOI Creative Commons
Adrian Muwonge, Paul R. Bessell, Mark Barend de Clare Bronsvoort

et al.

Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: April 3, 2025

Haulage truck drivers connect distant communities, posing potential disease introduction risks. However, interventions must balance public health protection, economic continuity, and individual rights. This study examines the role of haulage in onward spread Uganda during Delta wave COVID-19. Using 625,422 national surveillance records, we fitted a susceptible-infectious-recovered model to assess whether were "core-risk group." Although they accounted for only 0.036% COVID-19 cases, border districts associated with registered 12.02% more cases than inland districts, suggesting introduction. The risk varied by location, Tororo experiencing higher burden Amuru Kyotera, which South Sudan Tanzania, respectively. Mandatory testing result waiting at Malaba crossing increased up 6%. While haulage-targeted reduced had minimal impact on indicating limited spread. Our findings also suggest that integrating haulage-specific measures vaccination would further reduce case-load. transient core group uncertainties remain regarding extent their role, like crossings may have inadvertently heightened risk. Pandemic preparedness strategies should carefully risks key sectors supply chains safety

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Modelling the spread and mitigation of an emerging vector-borne pathogen: Citrus greening in the U.S. DOI Creative Commons
Viet-Anh Nguyen, David W. Bartels, Christopher A. Gilligan

et al.

PLoS Computational Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 19(6), P. e1010156 - e1010156

Published: June 2, 2023

Predictive models, based upon epidemiological principles and fitted to surveillance data, play an increasingly important role in shaping regulatory operational policies for emerging outbreaks. Data parameterising these strategically models are often scarce when rapid actions required change the course of epidemic invading a new region. We introduce test flexible framework landscape-scale disease management vector-borne pathogen use with endemic vector populations. analyse predict spread Huanglongbing or citrus greening U.S. estimate parameters using survey data from one region (Texas) show how transfer construct predictive spatio-temporal another (California). The used screen effective coordinated reactive strategies different regions.

Language: Английский

Citations

9
Challenges on the interaction of models and policy for pandemic control DOI Creative Commons
Liza Hadley, Peter Challenor, Chris Dent

et al.

Epidemics, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 37, P. 100499 - 100499

Published: Aug. 30, 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic has seen infectious disease modelling at the forefront of government decision-making. Models have been widely used throughout to estimate pathogen spread and explore potential impact different intervention strategies. Infectious modellers policymakers worked effectively together, but there are many avenues for progress on this interface. In paper, we identify discuss seven broad challenges interaction models policy control. We then conclude with suggestions recommendations future.

Language: Английский

Citations

20
Challenges of evaluating and modelling vaccination in emerging infectious diseases DOI Creative Commons
Zachary J. Madewell, Natalie E. Dean, Jesse A. Berlin

et al.

Epidemics, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 37, P. 100506 - 100506

Published: Oct. 6, 2021

Outbreaks of emerging pathogens pose unique methodological and practical challenges for the design, implementation, evaluation vaccine efficacy trials. Lessons learned from COVID-19 highlight need innovative flexible study design application to quickly identify promising candidate vaccines. Trial strategies should be tailored dynamics specific pathogen, location outbreak, prototypes, within regional socioeconomic constraints. Mathematical statistical models can assist investigators in designing infectious disease clinical We introduce key planning, evaluating, modelling trials pathogens.

Language: Английский

Citations

20
The importance of investing in data, models, experiments, team science, and public trust to help policymakers prepare for the next pandemic DOI Creative Commons
Richard Grieve, Youqi Yang, Sam Abbott

et al.

PLOS Global Public Health, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 3(11), P. e0002601 - e0002601

Published: Nov. 30, 2023

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about valuable insights regarding models, data, and experiments. In this narrative review, we summarised the existing literature on these three themes, exploring challenges of providing forecasts, requirement for real-time linkage health-related datasets, role 'experimentation' in evaluating interventions. This review encourages us to broaden our perspective future, acknowledging significance investing experimentation, but also invest areas that are conceptually more abstract: value 'team science', need public trust science, establishing processes using science policy. Policy-makers rely model forecasts early a when there is little it vital communicate assumptions, limitations, uncertainties (theme 1). Linked routine data can provide critical information, example, risk factors adverse outcomes often not available quickly enough make impact. interoperability resources internationally required facilitate sharing across jurisdictions 2). Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) provided timely evidence efficacy safety vaccinations pharmaceuticals were largely conducted higher income countries, restricting generalisability low- middle-income countries (LMIC). Trials non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) almost non-existent which was missed opportunity 3). Building themes from underscore importance other investment effective evidence-driven policy-making. response relied strong multidisciplinary research infrastructures, funders academic institutions do incentivise team (4). To enhance use scientific policy, researchers policy-makers must work together clearly current any change policy as evolves (5). Timely decisions require an established two-way process between scientists makers best (6). For preparedness against future pandemics, essential establish experiments fundamental pillars, complemented by efforts planning towards trust, evidence-based policy-making international communities. paper concludes with 'call actions' both researchers.

Language: Английский

Citations

7
The trade‐off between deaths by infection and socio‐economic costs in the emerging infectious disease DOI
Akira Watanabe, Hiroyuki Matsuda

Population Ecology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 66(3), P. 158 - 170

Published: Jan. 15, 2024

Abstract COVID‐19, caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS‐CoV‐2), is an emerging infectious disease (EID) with a relatively high infectivity and mortality rate. During state of emergency announced Japanese government in spring 2020, citizens were requested to stay home, number infected people was drastically reduced without legally‐binding lockdown. It well‐acknowledged that there trade‐off between maintaining economic activity preventing spread diseases. We aimed reduce total loss epidemic EID like COVID‐19 present study. focused on early late stages proposed framework resulted from damage infection cost for countermeasure. Mathematical models used estimate effect interventions deaths infection. The converted into monetary base different policies compared. In stage, we calculated when behavioral restrictions implemented. favorable intensity intervention depended basic reproduction number, fatality rate, impact. indicators showed it ratio maintain hospitalization system per determine which strategy should be adopted.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Precision epidemiology at the nexus of mathematics and nanotechnology: Unraveling the dance of viral dynamics DOI
Alaa A. A. Aljabali, Mohammad A. Obeid, Mohamed El‐Tanani

et al.

Gene, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 905, P. 148174 - 148174

Published: Jan. 18, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Optimizing information-driven awareness allocation for controlling activity-triggered epidemic spread DOI Creative Commons
Jie Chen, Mao-Bin Hu, Jinde Cao

et al.

New Journal of Physics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 26(7), P. 073008 - 073008

Published: June 25, 2024

Abstract In the contemporary era, advent of epidemics instigates a substantial upswing in relevant information dissemination, bolstering individuals’ resistance to infection by concurrently reducing activity contacts and reinforcing personal protective measures. To elucidate this intricate dynamics, we introduce composite four-layer network model designed capture interplay among information-driven awareness, human activity, epidemic spread, with focus on allocation limited attention diminishing frequency self-infection rates. One intriguing observation from our findings is an anomalous, concave non-monotonic relationship between awareness trade-off more pronounced prevalence at intermediate least efficacy. This underscores inadvisability relaxing self-protection through reduced or compensating for increased enhancing self-protection. Especially noteworthy significance response heightened dissemination inherent demands curtail risk. However, scenarios increasing ancillary frequency, emphasis should exclusively shift towards exposure. The establishes theoretical threshold accurately predicting efficacy outbreaks. Optimal consistently resides extremes—either completely avoiding unnecessary contact adopting full guidance, contingent level demand, offers valuable insights into delicate balance individual behaviors prevention.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
A framework for incorporating behavioural change into individual‐level spatial epidemic models DOI Creative Commons
Madeline A. Ward, Rob Deardon, Lorna E. Deeth

et al.

Canadian Journal of Statistics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Aug. 21, 2024

Abstract Epidemic trajectories can be substantially impacted by people modifying their behaviours in response to changes perceived risk of spreading or contracting the disease. However, most infectious disease models assume a stable population behaviour. We present flexible new class models, called behavioural change individual‐level (BC‐ILMs), that incorporate both covariate information and data‐driven effect. Focusing on spatial BC‐ILMs, we consider four “alarm” functions model effect as function infection prevalence over time. Through simulation studies, find if is present, using an alarm function, even specified incorrectly, will result improvement posterior predictive performance assumes The methods are applied data from 2001 U.K. foot mouth epidemic. results show some evidence effect, although it may not meaningfully impact fit compared simpler ILM this dataset.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Effectiveness of probabilistic contact tracing in epidemic containment: The role of super-spreaders and transmission path reconstruction DOI Creative Commons
Anna Paola Muntoni, Fabio Mazza, Alfredo Braunstein

et al.

PNAS Nexus, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 3(9)

Published: Sept. 1, 2024

Abstract The recent COVID-19 pandemic underscores the significance of early stage nonpharmacological intervention strategies. widespread use masks and systematic implementation contact tracing strategies provide a potentially equally effective socially less impactful alternative to more conventional approaches, such as large-scale mobility restrictions. However, manual faces strong limitations in accessing network contacts, scalability currently implemented protocols for smartphone-based digital becomes impractical during rapid expansion phases outbreaks, due surge exposure notifications associated tests. A substantial improvement can be obtained through integration probabilistic techniques risk assessment that effectively guide allocation diagnostic In this study, we first quantitatively analyze social costs with these containment measures based on tracing, employing three state-of-the-art models SARS-CoV-2 spreading. Our results suggest allow mitigation at lower cost. Secondly, our findings reveal remarkable efficacy contact-tracing performing backward multistep capturing superspreading events.

Language: Английский

Citations

2