Acta Biotheoretica, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 73(1)
Published: Feb. 11, 2025
Language: Английский
Journal of Mathematical Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 86(5)
Published: March 29, 2023
Abstract We consider the dynamics of a virus spreading through population that produces mutant strain with ability to infect individuals were infected established strain. Temporary cross-immunity is included using time delay, but found be harmless delay. provide some sufficient conditions guarantee local and global asymptotic stability disease-free equilibrium two boundary equilibria when strains outcompete one another. It shown that, due immune evasion emerging strain, reproduction number must significantly lower than for established-strain-only equilibrium. To analyze unique coexistence we apply quasi steady-state argument reduce full model two-dimensional exhibits asymptotically stable or Our results indicate basic numbers both govern overall dynamics, in nontrivial ways inclusion cross-immunity. The applied study emergence SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant presence Alpha wastewater surveillance data from Deer Island Treatment Plant Massachusetts, USA.
Language: Английский
Citations
12
Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 31(8), P. 11576 - 11590
Published: Jan. 14, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
4
Eurosurveillance, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 29(8)
Published: Feb. 22, 2024
Background Wastewater surveillance has expanded globally as a means to monitor spread of infectious diseases. An inherent challenge is substantial noise and bias in wastewater data because the sampling quantification process, limiting applicability monitoring tool. Aim To present an analytical framework for capturing growth trend circulating infections from conducting scenario analyses guide policy decisions. Methods We developed mathematical model translating observed SARS-CoV-2 viral load into effective reproduction numbers. used extended Kalman filter infer underlying transmissions by smoothing out observational noise. also illustrated impact different countermeasures such vaccinations non-pharmaceutical interventions on projected number cases using three study areas Japan during 2021–22 example. Results Observed notified were matched with range estimated our approach only, across virus methods, especially when disease prevalence was high. Estimated numbers derived consistent notification-based Our projections showed that 10–20% increase vaccination coverage or 10% reduction contact rate may suffice initiate declining areas. Conclusion demonstrates how can be track perform modelling inform The proposed complements conventional clinical surveillance, reliable timely epidemiological are not available.
Language: Английский
Citations
4
PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 19(6), P. e0305550 - e0305550
Published: June 21, 2024
The effective reproduction number, [Formula: see text], is an important epidemiological metric used to assess the state of epidemic, as well effectiveness public health interventions undertaken in response. When text] above one, it indicates that new infections are increasing, and thus epidemic growing, while below one decreasing, so under control. There several established software packages readily available statistically estimate using clinical surveillance data. However, there comparatively few accessible tools for estimating from pathogen wastewater concentration, a data stream cemented its utility during COVID-19 pandemic. We present package ern aims perform estimation number real-world or aggregated user-friendly way.
Language: Английский
Citations
4
Acta Biotheoretica, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 73(1)
Published: Feb. 11, 2025
Language: Английский
Citations
0