COVID-19 Transmission During the Winter 2023-24 Surge: A Comparative Analysis of Surveillance Estimates in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K.
Michael Hoerger,
No information about this author
James Gerhart,
No information about this author
Tristen Peyser
No information about this author
et al.
Research Square (Research Square),
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
unknown
Published: Jan. 9, 2025
Abstract
Background:
Better
estimates
of
COVID-19
transmission
are
needed
since
testing
has
declined.
The
present
investigation
examined
the
correspondence
among
during
winter
2023-24
surge
using
wastewater-derived
for
U.S.
and
Canada
testing-derived
estimate
in
U.K.
to
evaluate
validity
provide
vital
public
health
data
on
levels.
Methods:
study
used
from
(Pandemic
Mitigation
Collaborative
dashboard)
(COVID-19
Resources
testing-based
surveillance
(Health
Security
Agency).
Data
sets
were
linked
by
date
relative
peak
within
each
set.
Analyses
focused
UKHSA
period
November
2023
March
2024.
1)
described
day,
2)
agreement
patterns
via
correlations,
3)
absolute
proportion
population
actively
infectious
across
two
months
transmission,
4)
populations
infected
months.
Results:
On
day
infections,
an
estimated
1.95
million
people
U.S.,
148
thousand
Canada,
431
U.K.,
meaning
2.5%-4.5%
these
infectious.
Estimates
showed
high
throughout
wave,
especially
between
(r=.974,
p<.001).
During
93.5%
68.8%
had
excellent
or
better
with
data.
An
>100
months,
20.9%-26.0%
population.
Discussion:
Findings
support
ongoing
significance
documenting
levels
surge.
Transmission
methodologies
nations.
More
resources
prevent
diagnose
treat
long-term
sequelae.
Language: Английский
Understanding Nash epidemics
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
122(9)
Published: Feb. 27, 2025
Faced
with
a
dangerous
epidemic
humans
will
spontaneously
social
distance
to
reduce
their
risk
of
infection
at
socioeconomic
cost.
Compartmentalized
models
have
been
extended
include
this
endogenous
decision
making:
Individuals
choose
behavior
optimize
utility
function,
self-consistently
giving
rise
population
behavior.
Here,
we
study
the
properties
resulting
Nash
equilibria,
in
which
no
member
can
gain
an
advantage
by
unilaterally
adopting
different
We
leverage
analytic
solution
that
yields
fully
time-dependent
rational
obtain,
1)
simple
relationship
between
distancing
and
current
number
infections;
2)
scaling
results
for
how
peak
total
cases
depend
on
cost
contracting
disease;
3)
characteristic
costs
divide
regimes
strong
weak
behavioral
response;
4)
closed
form
expression
value
utility.
discuss
these
provide
deep
intuitive
understanding
disease
dynamics,
useful
both
individuals
policymakers.
In
particular,
infections
represents
heuristic
could
be
communicated
encourage,
or
“bootstrap,”
Language: Английский
Monitoring the Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs in Wastewater and Clinical Samples—A One-Year Study in Santiago de Compostela (Spain)
Viruses,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
17(4), P. 489 - 489
Published: March 28, 2025
Wastewater
surveillance
has
become
a
valuable
tool
to
monitor
the
emergence
of
SARS-CoV-2
variants
concern
(VOCs)
at
community
level.
In
this
study,
we
aimed
evaluate
presence
Alpha
(B.1.1.7),
Beta
(B.1.351),
Delta
(B.1617.2),
and
Omicron
(B.1.1.529)
VOCs
in
samples
from
inlet
wastewater
treatment
plant
(WWTP)
as
well
two
different
sewer
interceptors
(SI-1
SI-2)
urban
sewage
system
Santiago
de
Compostela
(Galicia,
NW
Spain)
throughout
2021
January
2022.
For
purpose,
detection
quantification
four
was
performed
using
duplex
allelic
discrimination
RT-qPCR
assays,
targeting
S-gene.
An
N1
gene
assay
used
reference
for
RNA
samples.
All
were
detected
Alpha,
Beta,
Delta,
45.7%,
7.5%,
66.7%,
72.7%
all
samples,
respectively.
VOC
dominant
during
first
part
whereas
peaks
observed
May–June
December
2021,
Some
differences
among
results
obtained
city
sectors
studied,
which
could
be
explained
by
characteristics
population
between
them.
Wastewater-based
epidemiology
allowed
us
track
early
circulation
local
level,
our
are
temporally
concordant
with
clinical
data
epidemiological
findings
reported
health
authorities.
Language: Английский
Adaptive human behaviour modulates the impact of immune life history and vaccination on long-term epidemic dynamics
Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
291(2033)
Published: Oct. 1, 2024
The
multiple
immunity
responses
exhibited
in
the
population
and
co-circulating
variants
documented
during
pandemics
show
a
high
potential
to
generate
diverse
long-term
epidemiological
scenarios.
Transmission
variability,
immune
uncertainties
human
behaviour
are
crucial
features
for
predictability
implementation
of
effective
mitigation
strategies.
Nonetheless,
effects
individual
health
incentives
on
disease
dynamics
not
well
understood.
We
use
behavioural-immuno-epidemiological
model
study
joint
evolution
epidemic
different
Our
results
reveal
trade-off
between
individuals’
levels
behavioural
produced.
find
that
adaptive
can
avoid
dynamical
resonance
by
avoiding
large
outbreaks,
producing
subsequent
uniform
outbreaks.
forward-looking
shows
an
optimal
planning
horizon
minimizes
burden
balancing
risk–benefit
trade-off.
compensate
differential
levels,
equalizing
scenarios
with
underlying
landscapes.
adequately
capture
complex
empirical
observed
pandemics.
tested
our
US
states
COVID-19
pandemic.
Finally,
we
explored
extensions
modelling
framework
incorporate
lockdowns,
emergence
novel
variant,
prosocial
attitudes
pandemic
fatigue.
Language: Английский
Impact of Sample Storage Time and Temperature on the Stability of Respiratory Viruses and Enteric Viruses in Wastewater
Yuanyuan Qiu,
No information about this author
Richardson Mah,
No information about this author
Logan A. Brand
No information about this author
et al.
Microorganisms,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
12(12), P. 2459 - 2459
Published: Nov. 29, 2024
Wastewater-based
surveillance
(WBS)
has
been
widely
used
to
track
SARS-CoV-2
as
well
many
other
viruses
in
communities
during
the
COVID
pandemic
and
post-pandemic.
However,
it
is
still
not
clear
how
temperature
storage
time
would
influence
stability
of
wastewater.
In
this
study,
we
assessed
SARS-CoV-2,
pepper
mild
mottle
virus
(PMMoV),
influenza
A
(IAV)
B
(IBV),
respiratory
syncytial
(RSV),
enteric
raw
wastewater
stored
at
room
temperature,
4
°C,
−20
°C
for
3
6
days.
PMMoV,
IAV,
were
found
be
stable
up
days
after
storing
or
°C.
RSV
more
susceptible
freeze–thaw
cycles
compared
PMMoV
viruses,
which
relatively
Low
detection
IBV
made
difficult
evaluate
impact.
Based
on
our
findings,
conclude
that
short-term
transportation
samples
within
ambient
acceptable
majority
these
viruses.
Freezing
even
short
periods
recommended
WBS
The
data
obtained
from
study
can
provide
guidance
quality
assurance
purposes
operational
aspects
surveillance.
Language: Английский