Environmental Science & Policy, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 105, P. 75 - 83
Published: Dec. 26, 2019
Language: Английский
Nature, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 573(7772), P. 108 - 111
Published: Aug. 28, 2019
Language: Английский
Citations
1060
Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 55(6), P. 4901 - 4914
Published: May 9, 2019
Abstract Global warming is expected to change the regime of extreme precipitation. Physical laws translate increasing atmospheric heat into water content that drives precipitation changes. Within literature, general agreement changing, yet different assessment methods, data sets, and study periods may result in patterns rates change. Here we perform a global analysis 8,730 daily records focusing on 1964–2013 period when accelerates. We introduce novel N largest extremes having complete years within period. Based these extremes, which represent more accurately heavy than annual maxima, form time series their frequency mean magnitude. The offers new insights reveals (1) zonal trends are highly unlikely under assumption stationarity (2) magnitude changes not as evident. Frequency reveal coherent spatial pattern with being detected large parts Eurasia, North Australia, Midwestern United States. Globally, over last decade studied find 7% events number. Finally, report correlated frequency.
Language: Английский
Citations
539
Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 54(11), P. 8545 - 8551
Published: Nov. 1, 2018
Abstract Despite evidence of increasing precipitation extremes, corresponding for increases in flooding remains elusive. If anything, flood magnitudes are decreasing despite widespread claims by the climate community that if extremes increase, floods must also. In this commentary we suggest reasons why extreme rainfall not resulting flooding. Among possible mechanisms responsible, identify decreases antecedent soil moisture, storm extent, and snowmelt. We argue understanding link between changes is a grand challenge hydrologic deserving increased attention.
Language: Английский
Citations
447
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(9), P. 592 - 609
Published: Aug. 10, 2021
Language: Английский
Citations
434
Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 55(6), P. 4582 - 4593
Published: May 14, 2019
Abstract Inferring the mechanisms causing river flooding is key to understanding past, present, and future flood risk. However, a quantitative spatially distributed overview of that drive across Europe currently unavailable. In addition, studies classify catchments according their flood‐driving often identify single mechanism per location, although multiple typically contribute We introduce new method uses seasonality statistics estimate relative importance extreme precipitation, soil moisture excess, snowmelt as drivers. Applying this European data set maximum annual flow dates in several thousand reveals from 1960 2010 relatively few floods were caused by rainfall peaks. Instead, most concurrence heavy precipitation with high antecedent moisture. For catchments, these has not substantially changed during past five decades. Exposing regional underlying Europe's costly natural hazard first step identifying processes require attention research.
Language: Английский
Citations
309
Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 10(2), P. 765 - 785
Published: April 17, 2018
Abstract. This is the first part of a two-paper series presenting Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive (GSIM), worldwide collection metadata indices derived from more than 35 000 daily streamflow time series. paper focuses on compilation based 12 free-to-access databases (seven national five international collections). It also describes development three products (freely available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.887477): (1) GSIM catalogue collating basic associated with each series, (2) catchment boundaries for contributing area gauge, (3) extracted gridded global data representing essential properties such as land cover type, soil climate topographic characteristics. The quality delineated boundary made should be consulted in application. second then explores production analysis indices. Having collated an unprecedented number stations metadata, can used to advance large-scale hydrological research improve understanding water cycle.
Language: Английский
Citations
286
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 8(3)
Published: March 11, 2021
Abstract Predictions of floods, droughts, and fast drought‐flood transitions are required at different time scales to develop management strategies targeted minimizing negative societal economic impacts. Forecasts daily seasonal scale vital for early warning, estimation event frequency hydraulic design, long‐term projections developing adaptation future conditions. All three types predictions—forecasts, estimates, projections—typically treat droughts floods independently, even though both extremes can be studied using related approaches have similar challenges. In this review, we (a) identify challenges common drought flood prediction their joint assessment (b) discuss tractable tackle these We group into four interrelated categories: data, process understanding, modeling prediction, human–water interactions. Data‐related include data availability definition. Process‐related the multivariate spatial characteristics extremes, non‐stationarities, changes in extremes. Modeling arise analysis, stochastic, hydrological, earth system, modeling. Challenges with respect interactions lie establishing links impacts, representing interactions, science communication. potential ways tackling including exploiting new sources, studying a framework, influences compounding drivers, continuous stochastic models or non‐stationary models, obtaining stakeholder feedback. Tackling one several will improve predictions help minimize impacts extreme events. This article is categorized under: Science Water >
Language: Английский
Citations
276
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 46(2), P. 756 - 766
Published: Dec. 26, 2018
Abstract This study investigates global changes in indicators of mean and extreme streamflow. The assessment is based on the Global Streamflow Indices Metadata archive focuses time series annual minimum, 10th, 50th, 90th percentiles, mean, maximum daily Trends are estimated using Sen‐Theil slope, significance regional trends established through bootstrapping. Changes indices often regionally consistent, showing that entire flow distribution moving either upward or downward. In addition, analysis confirms complex nature hydrological change where drying some regions (e.g., Mediterranean) contrasted by wetting other North Asia). Observed discussed context previous results with respect to model estimates impacts anthropogenic climate human water management.
Language: Английский
Citations
209
Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 54(7), P. 4218 - 4227
Published: May 25, 2018
Abstract Nuisance flooding (NF) refers to low levels of inundation that do not pose significant threats public safety or cause major property damage, but can disrupt routine day‐to‐day activities, put added strain on infrastructure systems such as roadways and sewers, minor damage. NF has received some attention in the context low‐lying coastal cities exposed increasingly higher high tides, a consequence sea level rise, which exceeds heights topography. However, are widespread deserve greater attention. Here simple, quantitative definition is proposed based established flood intensity thresholds for consequences (e.g., pedestrian safety, health risks). Based wide range literature including hydrology, transportation, risk, impacts, we define depth >3 cm <10 cm, regardless source. This limited tide rather inclusive all possible drivers pluvial, fluvial, oceanic capture trends resulting from in, compounding effects of, drivers. Furthermore, also distinguish between process an event , important linking societal impacts developing effective policy interventions mitigation strategies. Potential applications implications monitoring presented.
Language: Английский
Citations
183
Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 9(2), P. 757 - 783
Published: June 8, 2018
Abstract. Frequency and duration of floods are analyzed using the global flood database Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) to explore evidence trends during 1985â2015 at latitudinal scales. Three classes (i.e., short: 1â7, moderate: 8â20, long: 21 days above) also considered for this analysis. The nonparametric MannâKendall trend analysis is used evaluate three hypotheses addressing potential monotonic in frequency flood, moments duration, specific types. We evaluated if could be related large-scale atmospheric teleconnections a generalized linear model framework. Results show that tails (long duration) have increased both In tropics, 4-fold since the 2000s. This increase 2.5-fold north midlatitudes. However, much can placed within long-term climate variability context Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Pacific Decadal Oscillation were main explaining trend. There no short-duration across all significant increasing annual median durations globally each belt, not these teleconnections. While DFO data come with certain level epistemic uncertainty due imprecision estimation floods, overall, provides insights understanding persistence hydrologic extremes how they relate changes climate, organization local dynamical systems, country-scale socioeconomic factors.
Language: Английский
Citations
175