Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: Nov. 5, 2019

The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such occur in a warmer world however less well established, and combined effect changes frequency on total amount rain falling as much explored, spite potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations climate model simulations document strong increases frequencies occurring decadal timescales. Based find that from these intense almost doubles per degree warming, mainly due frequency, while are relatively weak, accordance previous studies. This shift towards stronger seen models, strength - hence rareness event. results, project if historical trends continue, most observed today likely double occurrence for each further Changes this magnitude dramatically than more widely communicated mean precipitation.

Language: Английский

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Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 48(1), P. 519 - 548

Published: Feb. 20, 2020

Climate extremes threaten human health, economic stability, and the well-being of natural built environments (e.g., 2003 European heat wave). As world continues to warm, climate hazards are expected increase in frequency intensity. The impacts extreme events will also be more severe due increased exposure (growing population development) vulnerability (aging infrastructure) settlements. models attribute part projected increases intensity disasters anthropogenic emissions changes land use cover. Here, we review impacts, historical changes,and theoretical research gaps key (heat waves, droughts, wildfires, precipitation, flooding). We highlight need improve our understanding dependence between individual interrelated because anthropogenic-induced warming risk not only but compound (co-occurring) cascading hazards. ▪ a world. Anthropogenic-induced causes drivers

Language: Английский

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Why We Can No Longer Ignore Consecutive Disasters

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 8(3)

Published: Jan. 6, 2020

Abstract In recent decades, a striking number of countries have suffered from consecutive disasters: events whose impacts overlap both spatially and temporally, while recovery is still under way. The risk disasters will increase due to growing exposure, the interconnectedness human society, increased frequency intensity nontectonic hazard. This paper provides an overview different types disasters, their causes, impacts. can be distinctly occurring in isolation (both temporally) other noting that full never occurs. We use existing empirical disaster databases show global probabilistic occurrence for selected hazard types. Current state‐of‐the art assessment models outputs do not allow thorough representation analysis disasters. mainly many challenges are introduced by addressing combining hazards nature, accounting interactions dynamics. Disaster management needs more holistic codesigned between researchers, policy makers, first responders, companies.

Language: Английский

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Anthropogenic Drought: Definition, Challenges, and Opportunities

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 59(2)

Published: Jan. 28, 2021

Abstract Traditional, mainstream definitions of drought describe it as deficit in water‐related variables or water‐dependent activities (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, surface and groundwater storage, irrigation) due to natural variabilities that are out the control local decision‐makers. Here, we argue within coupled human‐water systems, must be defined understood a process opposed product help better frame complex interrelated dynamics both human‐induced changes define anthropogenic compound multidimensional multiscale phenomenon, governed by combination water variability, climate change, human decisions activities, altered micro‐climate conditions land management. This definition considers full spectrum dynamic feedbacks processes land‐atmosphere interactions energy balance) human‐nature systems drive development . magnifies supply demand gap can lead bankruptcy, which will become more rampant around globe coming decades continuously growing demands under compounding effects change global environmental degradation. challenge has de facto implications for short‐term long‐term resources planning management, governance, policymaking. Herein, after brief overview concept its examples, discuss existing research gaps opportunities understanding, modeling, management this phenomenon.

Language: Английский

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Global impact of climate change on soil erosion and potential for adaptation through soil conservation

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 226, P. 103921 - 103921

Published: Jan. 10, 2022

Climate change is expected to lead increased soil erosion in many locations worldwide affecting ecosystem services and human well-being. Through a systematic review of 224 modelling studies, we provide global assessment the impact climate on adaptation potential through land use conservation. We account for robustness each study based statistical analysis ten methodological aspects an expert consultation. Results show increasing trend towards end 21st century, with highest increase projected semi-arid regions. Land characterized by agricultural expansion deforestation aggravate impact. Reforestation, abandonment conservation practices can entirely compensate erosion. This stresses need integrated planning. From obtained weights per conclude that there lot uncertainty methods applied, without clear more robust studies. Based results consultation, recommend model ensemble at least five models, latest CMIP6 scenarios. These data should be downscaled bias corrected using preserving quantile methods. Finally, post-processed applied forced precipitation runoff. Considering most methodologies different cascade will better spatial evaluation identification effective strategies.

Language: Английский

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Contribution of historical precipitation change to US flood damages

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 118(4)

Published: Jan. 11, 2021

Significance Precipitation extremes have increased in many regions of the United States, suggesting that climate change may be exacerbating cost flooding. However, impact historical precipitation on US flood damages remains poorly quantified. Applying empirical analysis to and damages, we estimate approximately one-third (36%) over 1988 2017 is a result changes. Climate models show anthropogenic has probability heavy associated with these costs. Our results provide information quantifying costs change, suggest lower levels future warming would very likely reduce flooding losses relative current global trajectory.

Language: Английский

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Evidence of shorter more extreme rainfalls and increased flood variability under climate change

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 603, P. 126994 - 126994

Published: Sept. 27, 2021

Language: Английский

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Changes in precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River Basin during 1960–2019 and the association with global warming, ENSO, and local effects

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 760, P. 144244 - 144244

Published: Dec. 10, 2020

Language: Английский

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Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 25(7), P. 3897 - 3935

Published: July 7, 2021

Abstract. Hydroclimatic extremes such as intense rainfall, floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wind or storms have devastating effects each year. One of the key challenges for society is understanding how these are evolving likely to unfold beyond their historical distributions under influence multiple drivers changes in climate, land cover, other human factors. Methods analysing hydroclimatic advanced considerably recent decades. Here we provide a review drivers, metrics, methods detection, attribution, management, projection nonstationary extremes. We discuss issues uncertainty associated with approaches (e.g. arising from insufficient record length, spurious nonstationarities, incomplete representation sources modelling frameworks), examine empirical simulation-based frameworks analysis extremes, identify gaps future research.

Language: Английский

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Evaluation of CMIP6 precipitation simulations across different climatic zones: Uncertainty and model intercomparison

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 250, P. 105369 - 105369

Published: Nov. 16, 2020

Language: Английский

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