Comment on hess-2024-126 DOI Creative Commons
Yongyong Zhang, Yongqiang Zhang,

Xiaoyan Zhai

et al.

Published: June 9, 2024

Abstract. Classification is beneficial for understanding flood variabilities and their formation mechanisms from massive event samples both scientific research management purposes. Our study investigates spatial temporal of 1446 unregulated events in 68 headstream catchments China at class scale using hierarchical partitional clustering methods. Control meteorological physio-geographical factors (e.g., meteorology, land cover catchment attributes) are explored individual classes constrained rank analysis Monte Carlo permutation test. Results show that we identify five robust classes, i.e., moderately, highly, slightly fast floods, as well moderately highly slow which accounts 24.0 %, 21.2 25.9 13.5 % 15.4 total events, respectively. All the evenly distributed whole period, but distributions quite distinct. The mainly southern China, northern transition region between China. category plays a dominant role variabilities, followed by attributes covers. Precipitation factors, such volume intensity, aridity index significant control factors. provides insights into aids prediction control.

Language: Английский

Climate Change and Hydrological Extremes DOI
Jinghua Xiong, Yuting Yang

Current Climate Change Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Oct. 2, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

24
Higher emissions scenarios lead to more extreme flooding in the United States DOI Creative Commons
Hanbeen Kim, Gabriele Villarini

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Jan. 3, 2024

Understanding projected changes in flooding across the contiguous United States (CONUS) helps increase our capability to adapt and mitigate against this hazard. Here, we assess future CONUS using outputs from 28 global climate models four scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. We find that is experience an overall flooding, especially under higher emission scenarios; there are subregional differences, with Northeast Southeast (Great Plains North Southwest) showing tendency towards increasing (decreasing) due flood processes at seasonal scale. Moreover, even though trends may not be detected historical period, these highlight current needs for incorporating change infrastructure designs management water resources.

Language: Английский

Citations

15
A comprehensive framework for assessing the spatial drivers of flood disasters using an optimal Parameter-based geographical Detector–machine learning coupled model DOI Creative Commons

Luyi Yang,

Xuan Ji, Meng Li

et al.

Geoscience Frontiers, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(6), P. 101889 - 101889

Published: July 11, 2024

Flood disasters pose serious threats to human life and property worldwide. Exploring the spatial drivers of flood on a macroscopic scale is great significance for mitigating their impacts. This study proposes comprehensive framework integrating driving-factor optimization interpretability, while considering heterogeneity. In this framework, Optimal Parameter-based Geographic Detector (OPGD), Recursive Feature Estimation (RFE), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) models were utilized construct OPGD–RFE–LGBM coupled model identify essential driving factors simulate distribution disasters. The SHapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) interpreter was employed quantitatively explain mechanisms behind Yunnan Province, typical mountainous plateau area in Southwest China, selected implement proposed conduct case study. For purpose, disaster inventory 7332 historical events prepared, 22 potential related precipitation, surface environment, activity initially selected. Results revealed that Province exhibit high heterogeneity, with geomorphic zoning accounting 66.1% variation offers clear advantages over single LGBM identifying analyzing Moreover, simulation performance shows slight improvement (a 6% average decrease RMSE an increase 1% R2) even reduced factor data. Factor explanatory analysis indicated combination sets varied across different subregions; nevertheless, precipitation-related factors, such as precipitation intensity index (SDII), wet days (R10MM), 5-day maximum (RX5day), main controlling provides quantitative analytical at large scales significant offering reference management authorities developing macro-strategies prevention.

Language: Английский

Citations

9
Flood occurrences and characteristics in Poland (Central Europe) in the last millennium DOI Creative Commons
Babak Ghazi, Rajmund Przybylak, Piotr Oliński

et al.

Global and Planetary Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 246, P. 104706 - 104706

Published: Jan. 13, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Reducing the computational cost of process-based flood frequency estimation by extracting precipitation events from large-ensemble climate dataset DOI Creative Commons
Jiachao Chen, Takahiro Sayama, Masafumi YAMADA

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 132946 - 132946

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Changes in Mediterranean flood processes and seasonality DOI Creative Commons
Yves Tramblay, Patrick Arnaud, Guillaume Artigue

et al.

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 27(15), P. 2973 - 2987

Published: Aug. 11, 2023

Abstract. Floods are a major natural hazard in the Mediterranean region, causing deaths and extensive damages. Recent studies have shown that intense rainfall events becoming more extreme this region but, paradoxically, without leading to an increase severity of floods. Consequently, it is important understand how flood changing explain absence trends magnitude despite increased extremes. A database 98 stations southern France with average record 50 years daily river discharge data between 1959 2021 was considered, together high-resolution reanalysis product providing precipitation simulated soil moisture classification weather patterns associated over France. Flood events, corresponding occurrence 1 event per year (5317 total), were extracted classified into excess-rainfall, short-rainfall, long-rainfall types. Several characteristics been also analyzed: durations, base flow contribution floods, runoff coefficient, total maximum rainfall, antecedent moisture. The evolution through time these seasonality analyzed. Results indicated that, most basins, floods tend occur earlier during year, mean date being, on average, advanced by month 1959–1990 1991–2021. This seasonal shift could be attributed frequency southern-circulation types spring summer. An extreme-event has observed, decrease before events. majority excess saturated soils, but their relative proportion decreasing time, notably spring, concurrent short rain For basins there positive correlation coefficients remaining stable dryer soils producing less lower In context increasing aridity, relationship likely cause magnitudes observed change These changes quite homogeneous domain studied, suggesting they rather linked regional climate than catchment characteristics. study shows even trends, properties may need accounted for when analyzing long-term hazards.

Language: Английский

Citations

18
Temporal changes in the frequency of flood types and their impact on flood statistics DOI Creative Commons
Svenja Fischer, Andreas Schumann

Journal of Hydrology X, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 22, P. 100171 - 100171

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Standard flood frequency analysis assumes stationarity of conditions, i.e., no change the distribution over time. However, long-term variability in climate and anthropogenic impacts question this assumption. Consequently, more non-stationary models are considered analyses. Yet, most them only consider a change-point or trend magnitude peaks while ignoring changes underlying geneses. Recent reports suggest such certain flood-generating factors, e.g., increase heavy-rainfall events. In study, types applied to detect meteorological drivers regimes. By application robust test for variance based on Gini's Mean Difference, significant occurrence detected. A clear tendency frequent floods less snowmelt-induced is observed many catchments Central Europe. special focus laid shifts winter floods, which occur often replaced by rainfall-driven floods. The statistics demonstrated several approaches. Though does not (necessarily) change, changing leads quantiles. Quantile estimations from traditional statistical analyses annual series compared results type-based statistics. It shown how standard affected these because they able compensate individual types.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Human-induced intensification of terrestrial water cycle in dry regions of the globe DOI Creative Commons
Yansong Guan, Xihui Gu, Louise Slater

et al.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(1)

Published: Feb. 23, 2024

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) strengthens the global terrestrial water cycle (TWC) through increases in annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) over land. While increase average PRCPTOT has been attributed to ACC, it is unclear whether this equally true dry and wet regions, given difference changes between two climatic regions. Here, we show regions twice as fast of globe during 1961–2018 both observations simulations. This faster projected grow with future warming, an intensified human-induced TWC driest globe. We phenomenon can be explained by warming response rates well stronger moisture transport under ACC. Quantitative detection attribution results that no longer ACC if are excluded. From 1961–2018, observed increased 5.63%~7.39% (2.44%~2.80%) (wet) much 89% (as little 5%) The ACC-induced likely have beneficial detrimental effects on globe, simultaneously alleviating scarcity while increasing risk major flooding.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Changes in the Climate System Dominate Inter‐Annual Variability in Flooding Across the Globe DOI Creative Commons
Hanbeen Kim, Gabriele Villarini, Conrad Wasko

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51(6)

Published: March 21, 2024

Abstract Extreme flood events have regional differences in their generating mechanisms due to the complex interaction of different climate and catchment processes. This study aims examine capability drivers capture year‐to‐year variability global extremes. Here, we use a statistical attribution approach model seasonal annual maximum daily discharge for 7,886 stations worldwide, using season‐ basin‐averaged precipitation temperature as predictors. The results show robust performance our climate‐informed models describing inter‐annual discharges regardless geographical region, type, basin size, degree regulation, impervious area. developed enable assessment sensitivity changes, indicating potential reliably project changes magnitude

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Revising Flood Return Periods by Accounting for the Co‐Occurrence Between Floods and Their Potential Drivers DOI Open Access
Kanneganti Bhargav Kumar, Rajarshi Das Bhowmik, P. P. Mujumdar

et al.

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 13, 2025

ABSTRACT The return period of floods can be influenced by the extreme values their potential drivers, which may vary among catchments. Understanding risk and associated changes in periods due to these drivers is therefore interest flood hydrology. In this study, are considered as compound events resulting from a combination non‐independent factors. estimated using joint distribution functions, accounting for dependence peaks two distinct catchments: (i) an inland catchment‐Warunji Catchment, Krishna basin, India, (ii) coastal catchment‐Usk catchment, United Kingdom (UK). annual maximum (AM) rainfall, soil moisture storm surge variations time occurrence calculated understand co‐occurrence patterns. pairwise frequency estimated, with survival copula function. results indicate that AM variables tend co‐occur within short window, signifying drivers. series observed same year largest series. show significant univariate estimates both catchments, have different flood‐generating mechanisms. This work re‐emphasises findings recent literature traditional assessment methods based only on peak information substantially underestimate/overestimate neglecting effects multivariate viewpoint imperative assessing floods.

Language: Английский

Citations

0