Usage of Compartmental Models in Predicting COVID-19 Outbreaks

The AAPS Journal, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 24(5)

Published: Sept. 2, 2022

Language: Английский

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A multi-strain model with asymptomatic transmission: Application to COVID-19 in the US

Journal of Theoretical Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 565, P. 111468 - 111468

Published: March 20, 2023

Language: Английский

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In-person schooling and associated COVID-19 risk in the United States over spring semester 2021

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 8(16)

Published: April 20, 2022

Because of the importance schools to childhood development, relationship between in-person schooling and COVID-19 risk has been one most important questions this pandemic. Previous work in United States during winter 2020-2021 showed that carried some for household members mitigation measures reduced risk. Schooling landscape changed radically over spring semester 2021. Here, we use data from a massive online survey characterize changes behavior associated risks period. We find increases reductions mitigations time. In-person is with increased reporting outcomes even among vaccinated individuals (although absolute greatly reduced). Vaccinated teachers working outside home were less likely report COVID-19-related than unvaccinated exclusively home. Adequate appear eliminate excess schooling.

Language: Английский

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Modeling COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics: A Bibliometric Review

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 19(21), P. 14143 - 14143

Published: Oct. 29, 2022

A good amount of research has evolved just in three years COVID-19 transmission, mortality, vaccination, and some socioeconomic studies. few bibliometric reviews have already been performed the literature, especially on broad theme COVID-19, without any particular area such as or vaccination. This paper fills this gap by conducting a review transmission first its kind. The main aim study is to conduct literature dynamics. We conducted analysis using descriptive network methods RStudio, Openrefine, VOSviewer, Tableau. reviewed 1103 articles published 2020-2022. result identified top authors, disciplines, patterns, hotspots gave us clear directions for classifying topics area. New areas are rapidly emerging area, which needs constant observation researchers combat global epidemic.

Language: Английский

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Modeling the Transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in a Partially Vaccinated Population

Viruses, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(1), P. 158 - 158

Published: Jan. 16, 2022

In a population with ongoing vaccination, the trajectory of pandemic is determined by how virus spreads in unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals that exhibit distinct transmission dynamics based on different levels natural vaccine-induced immunity. We developed mathematical model considers both subpopulations immunity parameters, including vaccination rates, vaccine effectiveness, gradual loss protection. The forecasted spread SARS-CoV-2 delta variant US under varied rates. further obtained control reproduction number conducted sensitivity analyses to determine each parameter may affect transmission. Although our has several limitations, infected was shown be magnitude greater (~10×) subpopulation compared subpopulation. Our results show combination strengthening preventative behavioral measures like face mask-wearing contact tracing will likely required deaccelerate infectious variants.

Language: Английский

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SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Icelandic Children: Close Follow-up of All Confirmed Cases in a Nationwide Study

The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 41(10), P. 835 - 840

Published: July 7, 2022

Introduction: Children are less likely to acquire SARS-CoV-2 infections than adults and when infected, usually have milder disease. True infection complication rates are, however, difficult ascertain. In Iceland, a strict test, trace isolate policy was maintained from the start of pandemic offers more accurate information number truly infected children in nationwide study. Material methods: All with positive PCR for February 28, 2020 August 31, 2021 were followed up through telephone consultations at least 14 days their symptoms registered. Symptom severity duration categorized based on age groups source Results: A total 1749 3 waves infections. had similar disease whereas incidence 5-fold higher third wave (3.5 vs. 0.73/1000 children/month). No severe symptoms, 81 (4.6%) moderate 1287 (73.9%) mild 374 (21.5%) asymptomatic. Symptoms upper (n = 839, 48%) lower respiratory tract 744, 43%) most common. Median 5 adolescents risk prolonged [OR:1.84 (1.39–2.43)]. Nineteen (1.1%) needed medical attention, but no child hospitalized. The household member 65% cases. Discussion: During first pandemic, Icelandic none common by fever, headache tiredness. This study helps shed light true confirmed infection.

Language: Английский

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Potential of Endogenous Oxytocin in Endocrine Treatment and Prevention of COVID-19

Frontiers in Endocrinology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13

Published: May 3, 2022

Coronavirus disease 2019 or COVID-19 caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become a significant threat to the health of human beings. While wearing mask, maintaining social distance and performing self-quarantine can reduce virus spreading passively, vaccination actively enhances immune defense against COVID-19. However, mutations SARS-CoV-2 presence asymptomatic carriers frustrate effort completely conquering A strategy that susceptibility thus prevent while blocking viral invasion pathogenesis independent antigen stability is highly desirable. In COVID-19, endocrine disorders have been implicated. Correspondingly, many hormones identified possess therapeutic potential treating such as estrogen, melatonin, corticosteroids, thyroid hormone oxytocin. Among them, oxytocin both treatment prevention This based on promotion immune-metabolic homeostasis, suppression inflammation pre-existing comorbidities, acceleration damage repair, reduction individuals’ pathogen infection. Oxytocin may specifically inactivate SARS-COV-2 spike protein block entry into cells via angiotensin-converting enzyme suppressing serine protease increasing interferon levels number T-lymphocytes. addition, promote parasympathetic outflow secretion body fluids could dilute even surface cornea, oral cavity gastrointestinal tract. What we need do now clinical trials. Such trials should fully balance advantages disadvantages application, consider time- dose-dependency effects, optimize dosage form administration approach, combine with inhibitors replication, apply specific passive immunization, timely utilize efficient vaccines. Meanwhile, transmission chain developing other anti-SARS-CoV-2 drugs are also important. relative complex issues drug applications over long term, be mobilized through physiological stimuli, used general measure. this review, explore for perhaps similar pathogens.

Language: Английский

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Epidemiological, virological and serological investigation of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak (Alpha variant) in a primary school: A prospective longitudinal study

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 17(8), P. e0272663 - e0272663

Published: Aug. 17, 2022

Objectives To report a prospective epidemiological, virological and serological investigation of SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in primary school. Methods As part longitudinal, prospective, school-based surveillance study, this involved repeated testing 73 pupils, 9 teachers, 13 non-teaching staff 26 household members participants who tested positive, with rapid antigen tests and/or RT-PCR (Day 0–2 Day 5–7), serologies on dried capillary blood samples 30), contact tracing interviews whole genome sequencing. Results We identified 20 children (aged 4 to 6 years from school classes), 2 teachers total were infected by the Alpha variant during outbreak. Infection attack rates between 11.8 62.0% among pupils classes, 22.2% 0% staff. Secondary rate was 15.4%. Symptoms reported 63% children, 100% 50% members. All analysed sequences but one showed identity. Serological detected 8 seroconversions unidentified tests. Conclusions This study confirmed child-to-child child-to-adult transmission introduction into households. Effective measures limit schools have potential reduce overall community circulation.

Language: Английский

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Seroincidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection prior to and during the rollout of vaccines in a community-based prospective cohort of U.S. adults

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Jan. 5, 2024

Abstract This study used repeat serologic testing to estimate infection rates and risk factors in two overlapping cohorts of SARS-CoV-2 N protein seronegative U.S. adults. One mostly unvaccinated sub-cohort was tracked from April 2020 March 2021 (pre-vaccine/wild-type era, n = 3421), the other, vaccinated cohort, June 2022 (vaccine/variant 2735). Vaccine uptake 0.53% 91.3% pre-vaccine vaccine/variant cohorts, respectively. Corresponding seroconversion were 9.6 25.7 per 100 person-years. In both sociodemographic epidemiologic for similar, though new emerged such as having a child household. Despite higher incidence vaccine boosters, masking, social distancing associated with substantially reduced risk, even through major variant surges.

Language: Английский

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COVID-19 outbreak trends in Canada, 2021

Canada Communicable Disease Report, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 49(4), P. 133 - 144

Published: April 12, 2023

Background: In January 2021, the Public Health Agency of Canada launched an outbreak surveillance system, Canadian COVID-19 Outbreak Surveillance System (CCOSS), with goal monitoring incidence and severity coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks across various community settings complementing case surveillance.Methods: Seven provinces were included in this report; these submitted weekly cumulative line lists to CCOSS 2021.Data includes administrative variables (e.g.date declared, date declared over, identifier), 24 settings, number confirmed cases outcomes (hospitalization, death).Descriptive analyses for from 3, 1, 2022, performed examining trends over time, severity, size.Results: Incidence followed similar incidence.Outbreaks most common school childcare (39%) industrial/agricultural (21%).Outbreak size ranged 2 639 per outbreak; median was four outbreak.Correctional facilities had largest 18 outbreak, by long-term care 10 outbreak.During periods high incidence, may be under-ascertained due limited public health capacity, or reporting biased towards high-risk prioritized testing.Outbreaks reported dominated jurisdictions populations. Conclusion:The illustrate that 2021 frequently such as schools; however, occurred congregate living settings.The information gathered complemented furthered understanding Canada.

Language: Английский

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