Estimates of the reproduction ratio from epidemic surveillance may be biased in spatially structured populations

Nature Physics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 20(7), P. 1204 - 1210

Published: April 25, 2024

Language: Английский

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Impact of infectious density-induced additional screening and treatment saturation on COVID-19: Modeling and cost-effective optimal control

Infectious Disease Modelling, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 9(2), P. 569 - 600

Published: March 16, 2024

This study introduces a novel

Language: Английский

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Embedding risk monitoring in infectious disease surveillance for timely and effective outbreak prevention and control

BMJ Global Health, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 10(2), P. e016870 - e016870

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Epidemic intelligence efforts aim to predict, timely detect and assess (re-)emerging pathogens, guide evaluate infectious disease prevention or control. We emphasise the underused potential of integrating monitoring risks related exposure, death, particularly in settings where limited diagnostic capacity access healthcare hamper prevention/control measures. Monitoring One Health exposures, human behaviour, immunity, comorbidities, uptake control measures pathogen characteristics can complement facility-based surveillance generating signals imminent ongoing outbreaks, targeting preventive/control interventions epidemic preparedness high-risk areas subpopulations. Low-cost risk data sources include electronic medical records, existing household/patient/environmental surveys, Demographic Surveillance Systems, medicine distribution programmatic data. Public health authorities need identify prioritise that effectively fill gaps not accurately answer, determine indicators generate from data, ensure availability, regular analysis dissemination.

Language: Английский

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COVID-19 Vaccination Effectiveness in the General Population of an Italian Province: Two Years of Follow-Up

Vaccines, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(8), P. 1325 - 1325

Published: Aug. 4, 2023

We carried out a cohort study on the overall population of province Pescara, Italy, to assess real-world effectiveness SARS-CoV-2 vaccination against infection, severe, or lethal COVID-19, two years after start campaign. included all resident domiciled subjects, and extracted official demographic, vaccination, hospital co-pay exemption datasets from 1 January 2021, up 15 February 2023. Cox proportional hazards analyses were adjusted for gender, age, diabetes, hypertension, COPD, major cardio- cerebrovascular events, cancer, kidney diseases. Throughout follow-up (466 days average), 186,676 subjects received greater than equal three vaccine doses (of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, NVX-CoV2373, JNJ-78436735), 47,610 doses, 11,452 one dose, 44,989 none. Overall, 40.4% infected with SARS-CoV-2. Of them, 2.74% had severe (1.30%) COVID-19. As compared unvaccinated, individuals who booster dose showed ≥85% lower risk A massive impact was found among elderly: 22.0% died, as opposed less 3% those doses. No protection infection observed, although this finding certainly influenced by Italian restriction policies control pandemic. Importantly, during Omicron predominance period, only group at least reduced COVID-19-related death.

Language: Английский

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From rally to reality: unveiling long-term dynamics in political trust over two years of COVID-19 in Germany

Political Research Exchange, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: Sept. 16, 2024

Language: Английский

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Predictors of SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Severe and Lethal COVID-19 after Three Years of Follow-Up: A Population-Wide Study

Viruses, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(9), P. 1794 - 1794

Published: Aug. 24, 2023

In this cohort study, the general population of an Italian Province was followed for three years after start pandemic, in order to identify predictors SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe or lethal COVID-19. All National Healthcare System information on biographical records, vaccinations, swabs, COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations co-pay exemptions were extracted from 25 February 2020 15 2023. Cox proportional hazard analysis used compute relative hazards COVID-19, adjusting age, gender, vaccine status, hypertension, diabetes, major cardiovascular diseases (CVD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), kidney cancer. Among 300,079 residents domiciled citizens, 41.5% had ≥1 positive swabs during follow-up (which lasted a mean 932 days). A total 3.67% infected individuals experienced (n = 4574) 1.76% died 2190). Females, elderly subjects with CVD, COPD, cancer showed significantly higher risk infection. The likelihood >90% lower among youngest, all comorbidities independently associated (ranging +28% +214%) both outcomes. Two immunization campaign, who received ≥2 doses vaccines still disease, lowest observed at least one booster dose.

Language: Английский

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Planning and adjusting the COVID-19 booster vaccination campaign to reduce disease burden

Infectious Disease Modelling, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 10(1), P. 150 - 162

Published: Sept. 13, 2024

Language: Английский

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Planning and adjusting the COVID-19 booster vaccination campaign to reduce disease burden

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 10, 2024

Abstract As public health policies shifted in 2023 from emergency response to long-term COVID-19 disease management, immunization programs started face the challenge of formulating routine booster campaigns a still highly uncertain seasonal behavior epidemic. Mathematical models assessing past and integrating knowledge on waning immunity can help better inform current future vaccination programs. Focusing first campaign 2021/2022 winter France, we used multi-strain age-stratified transmission model assess effectiveness observed controlling succession Delta, Omicron BA.1 BA.2 waves. We explored counterfactual scenarios altering eligibility criteria inter-dose delay. Our study showed that success program curtailing waves was largely dependent inclusion adults among eligible groups, sensitive delay, which changed over time. Shortening or prolonging this even by only one month, would have required substantial social distancing interventions curtail hospitalization peak. Also, time window for adjusting delay very short. findings highlight importance readiness adaptation formulation level epidemiological uncertainty.

Language: Английский

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Public Opinion Through Art: Exploring Chinese University Students’ Perspectives on COVID-19 Mass Nucleic Acid Testing

Qualitative Health Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 34(12), P. 1175 - 1190

Published: March 13, 2024

In the context of global COVID-19 pandemic, this study focuses on Chinese university students, employing graphic elicitation as a qualitative research method to analyze their hand-drawn paintings and related descriptions. Augmented by A/r/tography metacognitive methods, aims unveil participants’ collective memory, well perspectives responses these students policies pandemic. By specifically examining particular demographic, incorporates Fairclough’s ethical theory, applying deontological ethics, consequentialist virtue ethics establish comprehensive framework for evaluating adjustments pandemic response policies. This not only enhances our understanding how perceive adapt but also provides valuable insights decision-makers. The methodology, combining research, contributes policy assessment analysis, offering nuanced perspective interplay between individual perceptions, responses, considerations amid complexities public health crisis.

Language: Английский

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Incidence of Severe COVID-19 Outcomes and Immunization Rates in Apulian Individuals with Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Vaccines, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(8), P. 881 - 881

Published: Aug. 2, 2024

The etiology of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) is not fully understood but believed to involve a dysregulated immune response intestinal microbiota in genetically susceptible individuals. Individuals with IBD are at increased risk infections due immunosuppressive treatments, comorbidities, and advanced age. Current evidence indicates that patients higher SARS-CoV-2 infection compared the general population, though severe outcomes remains debated. A retrospective observational study was conducted using Apulian regional health data from 2020 2022. This included 1029 3075 controls, matched by age sex. COVID-19 incidence, hospitalization, case fatality rates were analyzed alongside vaccination coverage. No significant differences incidence (IRR = 0.97), hospitalization (p 0.218), or lethality 0.271) evidenced between population. Vaccination high both groups, slightly uptake patients. Multivariate analysis identified male sex as factors for outcomes, while significantly reduced risks. Apulia do have an crucial protecting patients, ongoing efforts promote within this population essential. Future research should focus on impact specific treatments long-term effectiveness vaccines.

Language: Английский

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