Research Square (Research Square),
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
unknown
Published: Nov. 21, 2023
Abstract
Subsistence-oriented
communities
in
tropical
coastal
areas
face
the
greatest
threat
from
climate
change,
with
consequences
manifesting
through
diminishing
returns
small-scale
fishing
and
farming
ventures.
The
complementary
climate,
sustainable
development,
biodiversity
conservation
policies
target
reducing
risks,
but
effective
policy
outcomes
depend
on
a
thorough
understanding
of
system-wide
risk,
community
adaptation
potential
gaps,
possible
economic
losses.
Using
four
countries
Western
Indian
Ocean
(WIO)
region
as
case,
we
present
framework
for
quantifying
risk
to
subsistence-oriented
communities.
On
average,
losses
ecosystem
services
are
predicted
increase
increasing
annual
up
23%
32%
total
value
(~
US$
516,828,468/year)
under
SSP2-4.5
SSP5-8.5
scenarios
by
2050,
respectively.
A
comprehensive
assessment
service
cost
inaction
can
inform
actions
aimed
at
adapting,
mitigating,
compensating
loss
damage
caused
change.
Marine Ecology Progress Series,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
730, P. 59 - 78
Published: Feb. 5, 2024
Predicting
and
mapping
coral
reef
diversity
at
moderate
scales
can
assist
spatial
planning
prioritizing
conservation
activities.
We
made
coarse-scale
(6.25
km
2
)
predictive
models
for
numbers
of
fish
species
community
composition
starting
with
a
spatially
complete
database
70
environmental
variables
available
7039
mapped
cells
in
the
Western
Indian
Ocean.
An
ensemble
model
was
created
from
process
variable
elimination
selectivity
to
make
best
predictions
irrespective
human
influences.
This
compared
using
preselected
commonly
used
evaluate
climate
change
fishing
water
quality
Many
(~27)
contributed
number
models,
but
local
biomass,
depth,
retention
connectivity
were
dominant
predictors.
The
key
human-influenced
included
biomass
distance
populations,
weaker
associations
sediments
nutrients.
Climate-influenced
generally
median
sea
surface
temperature
(SST)
contributions
declining
order
SST
kurtosis,
bimodality,
excess
summer
heat,
skewness,
rate
rise,
cover.
Community
variability
explained
by
richness
axes
damselfishes-angelfishes
butterflyfishes-parrotfishes.
Numbers
damselfish-angelfish
ecologically
separated
damselfishes
declined
increasing
temperature,
cumulative
chronic
stresses.
Species
butterflyfish-parrotfish
butterflyfish
acute
variability,
rise.
Several
hotspots
found
East
African
Coastal
Current
Ecoregion
centered
Tanzania,
followed
Mayotte,
southern
Kenya,
northern
Mozambique.
If
be
maintained,
broad
distributions
combined
compensatory
responses
should
maintain
high
ecological
resilience
other
stressors.
Research Square (Research Square),
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
unknown
Published: March 31, 2025
Abstract
Variability
in
fish
production
among
fringing
and
island
reef
systems
was
explored
for
the
influences
of
effort-stock-catch-revenue
relationships
sustainability.
Fisheries
independent
fishable
biomass,
recovery
rates,
taxonomic
composition,
fisheries
dependent
metrics
effort,
catch
revenue
were
analyzed
an
ocean
exposed
(high
production)
sheltered
environments
(low
production).
Recovery
rates
biomass
closures
supported
differential
predictions
with
rate
r
0.22
±
0.12
(±
95%CI)
reefs
0.07
0.03,
which
potentially
produces
5.6
0.91
2.8
0.3
tons/km2/y
at
MSY
respectively.
Both
types
had
high
effort
yields
below
indicating
overfishing
by
metrics.
Multiple
lines
evidence
indicate
that
sustainability
bounded
minimum
acceptable
or
opportunity
cost
income
thresholds
rather
than
reef’s
natural
productivity.
For
example,
higher
lower
exhibited
production/biomass
(P/B)
turnover
faster
declining
per
area
reefs.
Fishing
declined
over
~
34-month
study
period
to
stabilize
Catch-per-Unit
Effort
(CPUE)
both
values
between
national
poverty
individual
thresholds.
The
more
productive
a
greater
yield
deficit
would
require
larger
reduction
daily
fishing
(40%
versus
15%)
achieve
censused
stock
levels.
less
considerable
disproportionate
losses
key
vulnerable
schooling
taxa
resulted
25%
relative
predicted
potential
yield.
Protecting
aggregations
reducing
should
increase
wealth.
Stock
is
required
recover
likely
prevented
rising
prices
resource
extraction
subsidies
reduce
losses.
Conservation Science and Practice,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
5(12)
Published: Oct. 31, 2023
Abstract
Reducing
resource
depletion
and
promoting
ecosystem‐based
management
are
considered
key
climate
change
adaptation
policies.
Therefore,
the
status
of
an
identified
refugia
in
a
semi‐enclosed
bay
on
Kenya–Tanzania
border
was
evaluated
for
sustainability.
Both
fisheries
stock
catch
assessment
methods
found
low
production
excess
effort.
Stock
recovery
closures
(up
to
45
years)
determined
best‐fit
r
K
values,
which
established
maximum
sustainable
(MSY)
2.98
±
0.45
(SEM)
tons/km
2
/year.
estimates
bays'
fishing
grounds
indicated
that
biomass
below
MSY
predicted
produce
1.8
1.0
or
1.1
ton/km
/year
optimal
MSY.
However,
landed
fish
at
five
studied
villages
varied
greatly
from
0.22
2.9
therefore
considerably
lower
than
nearby
ocean‐exposed
locations,
has
been
estimated
5–7
modest
capture
rates
will
be
required
allow
needed
achieve
sustainability
restore
refugia's
ecology.
The
highest
stocks
near‐MSY
yields
were
captured
national
reserve.
broader
implementation
reserve's
gear‐restriction
policies
should
fisheries.
High
spatial
variability
yield
patterns
indicate
interactions
between
management,
compliance,
trade
connections,
governance.
In
refugia,
reducing
cumulative
impacts
require
knowing
managing
limits.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
121(42)
Published: Oct. 7, 2024
The
amount
of
ocean
protected
from
fishing
and
other
human
impacts
has
often
been
used
as
a
metric
conservation
progress.
However,
protection
efforts
have
highly
variable
outcomes
that
depend
on
local
conditions,
which
makes
it
difficult
to
quantify
what
coral
reef
date
actually
achieved
at
global
scale.
Here,
we
develop
predictive
model
how
conditions
influence
~2,600
sites
across
44
ecoregions,
much
more
fish
biomass
there
is
reefs
compared
modeled
scenario
with
no
protection.
Under
the
assumptions
our
model,
study
reveals
without
existing
would
be
~10%
less
reefs.
Thus,
estimate
led
approximately
1
in
every
10
kg
biomass.
iScience,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
27(4), P. 109420 - 109420
Published: March 5, 2024
The
need
to
enhance
nutrient
production
from
tropical
ecosystems
feed
the
poor
could
potentially
create
a
new
framework
for
fisheries
science
and
management.
Early
recommendations
have
included
targeting
small
fishes
increasing
species
richness
of
fish
catches,
which
represent
departure
more
traditional
approaches
such
as
biomass-based
To
test
these
recommendations,
we
compared
outcomes
management
with
hypothesized
factors
influencing
density
in
nearshore
artisanal
catches
Western
Indian
Ocean.
We
found
that
enhancing
depends
primarily
on
achieving
targets.
Catches
dominated
by
low-
mid-trophic
level
smaller
body
sizes
faster
turnover
were
associated
modest
increases
densities,
but
variability
was
relative
human
nutritional
requirements.
Therefore,
fishery
should
focus
restoring
biomass
achieve
maximum
yields
sustainability,
particularly
herbivorous
fishes.
bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory),
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
unknown
Published: March 29, 2024
Abstract
The
marine
aquarium
trade
is
a
significant
global
industry
harvesting
millions
of
live
coral
reef
fishes
annually.
Wild-caught
fish
dominate
public
and
private
aquaria
markets
in
the
USA
Europe,
supporting
fisher
livelihoods
Indo-Pacific.
This
diverse
species-rich
considered
data-limited,
creating
barriers
to
quantify
sustainability
this
fishery
net
benefit
socio-ecological
system.
We
present
revised
expanded
productivity-susceptibility
analysis
(PSA)
framework
assess
vulnerability
overharvesting
top
258
traded
species,
an
estimated
92.5%
all
import
volume
into
2011.
Vulnerability
was
calculated
based
on
various
productivity
susceptibility
factors,
tailored
unique
life-history
selectivity
characteristics
trade.
novel
factors
that
improve
model
accuracy,
methods
overcome
missing
data
for
individual
apply
improved
Gaussian
mixture
clustering
algorithm
objectively
classify
species
as
least,
moderately,
or
most
vulnerable.
Our
results
show
overwhelming
85%
evaluated
fall
least
moderately
vulnerable
classification,
with
remaining
designated
high
priority
localized
assessment
management
initiatives.
A
comparative
case
study
between
our
PSA
popular
FishBase
illustrates
how
it
ill-suited
handle
limitations
non-food
fishes.
PSA,
at
family
level,
provide
useful
information
stakeholders
serves
robust
accessible
risk
tool
prioritize
their
scores.
Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
12
Published: Sept. 30, 2024
Introduction
Predictive
models
based
on
environmental
proxy
data
are
being
used
to
predict
biodiversity
large
and
even
global
scales.
Yet,
some
of
the
underlying
assumptions
about
relationship
between
variables
predictions
require
investigations
testing
consequences
using
model
alternatives,
sources,
choices,
scales,
extent,
overlap
among
predictions.
Mozambican
coral
reefs
provide
a
good
case
study
test
these
given
paucity
field
data,
its
long
coastline,
transitions
from
tropical
temperate
environments.
Methods
Three
modelling
formulations
5
specific
were
made
satellite
shipboard
measurements
extensive
fish
corals
their
performance
in
predicting
numbers
species
taxa
data.
Model
mapped
for
1180
~6.25
km
2
reef
cells.
Predictions
1)
~1000
sites
Western
Indian
Ocean
(WIO)
faunal
province
model,
2)
variable
selected
WIO
(WIOMOD)
but
trained
only
with
(<113
sites),
3)
standard
redundancy
selection
procedures.
Results
discussion
Training
cross
validation
indicated
modest
predictive
ability
(R
~0.42-0.56%)
reasonable
transferability.
Consequently,
there
was
unexplained
variation
likely
due
small-scale
variability
finer
than
cell
scale.
Differences
caused
by
different
rankings
response
relationship.
For
example,
Mozambique-only
predicted
more
fewer
taxa,
larger
role
water
quality
sediments,
habitats,
temperature
variation,
lesser
human
influence
WIOMOD.
Therefore,
differences
indicate
that
scale
(i.e.
provincial
or
global)
can
contribute
understanding
gross
patterns
miss
important
local
drivers
transitional
Nevertheless,
79%
88%
cell-level
taxonomic
diversity
had
standardized
coefficients
variations
<10%.