Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: March 12, 2024

Abstract Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely safeguard most of world’s coral reefs. This prognosis primarily based a small subset available models apply similar ‘excess heat’ threshold methodologies. Our systematic review 79 articles projecting reef responses climate revealed five main methods. ‘Excess constituted one third (32%) all studies but attracted disproportionate share (68%) citations in field. Most methods relied deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding field’s ability estimate uncertainty. To synthesize projections, we aimed identify with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices model outputs and scenarios limited analysis fraction studies. We found substantial discrepancies projected impacts, indicating serving basis for syntheses may project more severe consequences other Drawing insights from fields, propose incorporate uncertainty into modeling approaches multi-model ensemble approach generating projections futures.

Language: Английский

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Exceptional atmospheric conditions in June 2023 generated a northwest European marine heatwave which contributed to breaking land temperature records

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: May 30, 2024

Abstract The Northwest European shelf experienced unprecedented surface temperature anomalies in June 2023 (anomalies up to 5 °C locally, north of Ireland). Here, we show the average underwent its longest recorded category II marine heatwave (16 days). With state-of-the-art observation and modelling capabilities, developed quickly due strong atmospheric forcing (high level sunshine, weak winds, tropical air) wave activity under anticyclonic weather regimes. Once formed, this shallow fed back on weather: over sea it reduced cloud cover land contributed breaking mean records enhanced convective rainfall through stronger, warmer moister breezes. This was intensified by last 20-year warming trend temperatures. Such temperatures are projected become commonplace middle century a high greenhouse gas emission scenario.

Language: Английский

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Environmental Concentrations of Herbicide Prometryn Render Stress-Tolerant Corals Susceptible to Ocean Warming

Environmental Science & Technology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 58(10), P. 4545 - 4557

Published: Feb. 22, 2024

Global warming has caused the degradation of coral reefs around world. While stress-tolerant corals have demonstrated ability to acclimatize ocean warming, it remains unclear whether they can sustain their thermal resilience when superimposed with other coastal environmental stressors. We report combined impacts a photosystem II (PSII) herbicide, prometryn, and on Galaxea fascicularis through physiological omics analyses. The results demonstrate that heat-stress-induced inhibition photosynthetic efficiency in G. is exacerbated presence prometryn. Transcriptomics metabolomics analyses indicate prometryn exposure may overwhelm repair mechanism corals, thereby compromising capacity for acclimation. Moreover, might amplify adverse effects heat stress key energy nutrient metabolism pathways induce stronger response oxidative corals. findings at environmentally relevant concentrations would render more susceptible exacerbate breakdown Symbiodiniaceae symbiosis. present study provides valuable insights into necessity prioritizing PSII herbicide pollution reduction reef protection efforts while mitigating climate change.

Language: Английский

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Quantifying the ecological consequences of climate change in coastal ecosystems

Cambridge Prisms Coastal Futures, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 1

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Abstract Few coastal ecosystems remain untouched by direct human activities, and none are unimpacted anthropogenic climate change. These drivers interact with exacerbate each other in complex ways, yielding a mosaic of ecological consequences that range from adaptive responses, such as geographic shifts changes phenology, to severe impacts, mass mortalities, regime loss biodiversity. Identifying the role change these phenomena requires corroborating evidence multiple lines evidence, including laboratory experiments, field observations, numerical models palaeorecords. Yet few studies can confidently quantify magnitude effect attributable solely change, because seldom acts alone ecosystems. Projections future risk further complicated scenario uncertainty – is, our lack knowledge about degree which humanity will mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions, or make ways we impact Irrespective, ocean warming would be impossible reverse before end century, sea levels likely continue rise for centuries elevated millennia. Therefore, risks projected mirror impacts already observed, severity escalating cumulative emissions. Promising avenues progress beyond qualitative assessments include collaborative modelling initiatives, model intercomparison projects, use broader systems. But reduce rapidly reducing emissions greenhouse gases, restoring damaged habitats, regulating non-climate stressors using climate-smart conservation actions, implementing inclusive coastal-zone management approaches, especially those involving nature-based solutions.

Language: Английский

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Past disturbances and local conditions influence the recovery rates of coral reefs

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Corals are being increasingly subjected to marine heatwaves. Theory suggests that increasing the intensity of disturbances reduces recovery rates, which inspired us examine rates coral cover following heatwaves, cyclones, and other at 1921 study sites, in 58 countries three oceans, from 1977 2020. In Atlantic Ocean, has decreased fourfold since 1970s, have been relatively slow, except Antilles. By contrast, reefs Pacific Indian Oceans maintained over time. There were positive relationships between prior cyclone heatwave frequency, negative macroalgae distance shore. A recent increase variance some ecoregions those may be approaching a phase shift. While heatwaves our results suggest regional local conditions influence therefore, effective management efforts can help recover disturbances.

Language: Английский

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Diversification of refugia types needed to secure the future of coral reefs subject to climate change

Conservation Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 38(1)

Published: May 5, 2023

Abstract Identifying locations of refugia from the thermal stresses climate change for coral reefs and better managing them is one key recommendations adaptation. We review summarize approximately 30 years applied research focused on identifying to prioritize conservation actions under rapid change. found that currently proposed predicted avoid future losses are highly reliant excess heat metrics, such as degree heating weeks. However, many existing alternative environmental, ecological, life‐history variables could be used identify other types lead desired diversified portfolio reef conservation. To improve priorities reefs, there a need evaluate validate predictions with long‐term field data abundance, diversity, functioning. There also safeguard displaying resistance toprolonged exposure waves ability recover quickly after exposure. recommend using more metrics potential sites can avoid, resist, high ocean temperatures consequences change, thereby shifting past efforts avoidance risk‐spreading strategic in rapidly warming climate.

Language: Английский

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The 2022 summer marine heatwaves and coral bleaching in China's Greater Bay Area

Marine Environmental Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 189, P. 106044 - 106044

Published: June 5, 2023

Language: Английский

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Re(de)fining degree-heating week: coral bleaching variability necessitates regional and temporal optimization of global forecast model stress metrics

Coral Reefs, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 43(4), P. 969 - 984

Published: June 12, 2024

Abstract Tropical coral reefs are a critical ecosystem in global peril as result of anthropogenic climate change, and effective conservation efforts require reliable methods for identifying predicting bleaching events. To this end, temperature threshold-based models such the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) degree-heating week (DHW) metric useful forecasting function heat stress accumulation. DHW does not adequately account regional variation responses, however, current definition consistently underpredicts occurrence. Using weather skill-based framework, our analysis cross-tested 1080 variations DHW-based occurrence (presence/absence) model against 22 years contemporary observations (1998–2019) order to optimize forecast skill at different levels geographic specificity. On basis relative definition, reducing 1 °C warming cutoff 0.4 °C, adjusting accumulation window 11 weeks, defining threshold 3 improved by 70%. Allowing new definitions vary across regions ocean basins further doubled skill. Our results also suggest that most change over time reef systems respond shifting climate. Since 1998, globally optimized has risen significant rate 0.19 DHW/year, matching pace warming. The trajectory each basin varies. Though work is necessary parse mechanism behind trend, dynamic nature responses demands tools be continuously refined if they inform marine efforts.

Language: Английский

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Ecophysiological responses to heat waves in the marine intertidal zone

Journal of Experimental Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 228(2)

Published: Jan. 15, 2025

One notable consequence of climate change is an increase in the frequency, scale and severity heat waves. Heat waves terrestrial habitats (atmospheric waves, AHW) marine (marine MHW) have received considerable attention as environmental forces that impact organisms, populations whole ecosystems. Only one ecosystem, intertidal zone, experiences both MHWs AHWs. In this Review, we outline range responses zone organisms exhibit response to We begin by examining drivers thermal maxima develop a simple model daily maximum temperatures based on publicly available tide solar radiation models, compare it with logged, under-rock temperature data at site. then summarize experimental ecological studies how ecosystems respond across dimensions biotic response. Additional paid impacts extreme cellular physiology, including oxidative stress thermally induced mitochondrial overdrive dysfunction. examine energetic consequences these mechanisms they shift organismal traits, growth, reproduction immune function. conclude considering important future directions for improving organisms.

Language: Английский

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Geographical patterns of intraspecific genetic diversity reflect the adaptive potential of the coral Pocillopora damicornis species complex

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 20(1), P. e0316380 - e0316380

Published: Jan. 22, 2025

Marine heatwaves are increasing in intensity and frequency however, responses survival of reef corals vary geographically. Geographical differences thermal tolerance may be part a consequence intraspecific diversity, where high-diversity localities more likely to support heat-tolerant alleles that promote through stress. Here, we assessed geographical patterns genetic diversity the ubiquitous coral Pocillopora damicornis species complex using 428 sequences Internal Transcribed Spacer 2 (ITS2) region across 44 sites Pacific Indian Oceans. We focused on detecting hotspots, wherein some individuals possess gene variants tolerate marine heatwaves. A deep-learning, multi-layer neural-network model showed location played major role with mean sea-surface temperature oceanic regions being most influential predictor variables differentiating diversity. The highest estimate variation was recorded French Polynesia Southeast Asia. these reefs than elsewhere harbor adaptive potential survive climate change, so managers should prioritize when forming conservation goals.

Language: Английский

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