Projected climate oligotrophication of the Adriatic marine ecosystems

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Feb. 2, 2024

The Adriatic Sea hosts diverse marine ecosystems, characterized by rich biodiversity and unique ecological dynamics. Its intricate coastal habitats open waters support a range of species contribute to the region's economic significance. Unraveling consequences ongoing climate changes on this delicate environment is essential ensure future safeguard basin. To tackle problem, we developed biogeochemical model for entire basin, with horizontal resolution about 2 km 120 vertical levels, forced projections atmosphere, hydrology ocean circulation between 1992 2050, under emission scenario RCP8.5. projected 2031–2050 1992–2011 were evaluated ecoregions different trophic conditions, identified using k-medoid classification technique. results point toward generalized oligotrophication especially intense in northern estuarine areas, driven substantial decrease river discharge rivers Po Plain. This unproductive declining resources, together warming, salinization, acidification waters, cast doubt long-term resilience Northern food web structure, which has evolved thrive high conditions. outcome study provides stakeholders tool understand how potential decreases regimes Rivers could affect ecosystem its goods services future.

Language: Английский

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Obtaining refined Euro-Mediterranean rainfall projections through regional assessment of CMIP6 General Circulation Models

Global and Planetary Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 104725 - 104725

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Spatial assessment of precipitation concentration and seasonality in Iraq

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 156(2)

Published: Jan. 30, 2025

Language: Английский

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A global perspective on western Mediterranean precipitation extremes

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: Feb. 8, 2022

Abstract The Mediterranean region has been declared a climate change hotspot due, among other reasons, to an expected increase in the torrential rains that frequently affect this densely populated area. However, extent which these are connected regions outside remains uncertain. Here we simulate 160 extreme precipitation events with atmospheric model enabled for state-of-the-art moisture tracking and demonstrate large scale transport is more important factor than evaporation over local sources. We find average fraction source only 35%, while 10% from evapotranspiration nearby land continental Europe 25% originates North Atlantic. remaining 30% comes several distant regions, sometimes as remote tropical Pacific or Southern Hemisphere, indicating direct connections multiple locations on planet global energy redistribution. Our results point importance of approaching episodes rather purely regional perspective, especially when attempting attribute them change.

Language: Английский

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Evaluation of IMERG for GPM satellite-based precipitation products for extreme precipitation indices over Turkiye

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 291, P. 106826 - 106826

Published: May 24, 2023

Language: Английский

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Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection‐Permitting Model Ensemble

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51(6)

Published: March 21, 2024

Abstract Taking advantage of a large ensemble Convection Permitting‐Regional Climate Models on pan‐Alpine domain and an object‐oriented dedicated analysis, this study aims to investigate future changes in high‐impact fall Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events at high warming levels. We identify robust multi‐model agreement for increased frequency from central Italy the northern Balkans combined with substantial extension affected areas, dominant influence driving Global projecting frequency, increase intensity, area, volume severity over French Mediterranean. However, quantitative uncertainties persist despite use convection‐permitting models, no clear southeastern France range plausible events' properties, including most intense events. Model diversity international coordination are still needed provide policy‐relevant climate information regarding precipitation extremes.

Language: Английский

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Climate change and extremes in the Mediterranean island of Cyprus: from historical trends to future projections

Environmental Research Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6(9), P. 095020 - 095020

Published: Sept. 1, 2024

Abstract Cyprus is a European island state in the eastern Mediterranean climate change hotspot. Despite being relatively small island, it has diverse climatic zones, ranging from semi-arid to subhumid mountains and humid on Mount Olympos. Given accelerated rate of environmental region, present study aims identify, update observed trends critical parameters, highlighting vulnerable areas within island. Moreover, since nationwide multi-model assessments future conditions are limited or outdated, we aim investigate range projections using 21-member EURO-CORDEX ensemble under pathways RCP2.6 RCP8.5. Besides mean conditions, analyze various extreme indicators relevant socio-economic activities such as agriculture, biodiversity, tourism, energy water resources. Our historical analysis revealed statistically significant increasing temperature trend (0.4 °C–0.6 °C per decade), which more pronounced during summer spring. Concerning precipitation, not robust, nevertheless, southeastern coast central regions near capital city Nicosia substantially drier prone further changes precipitation regimes. The for end 21st century, according high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5), indicate that likely experience an annual increase over 4 approximate 20%–30% reduction rainfall, relative 1981–2000. These highlight alarming requires urgent attention proactive measures mitigate potential impacts

Language: Английский

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Unravelling Precipitation Trends in Greece since 1950s Using ERA5 Climate Reanalysis Data

Climate, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(2), P. 12 - 12

Published: Jan. 18, 2022

Precipitation is one of the most variable climatic parameters, as it determined by many physical processes. The spatiotemporal characteristics precipitation have been significantly affected climate change during past decades. Analysis trends challenging, especially in regions such Greece, which characterized complex topography and includes several ungauged areas. With this study, we aim to shed new light on inter-annual over Greece. For purpose, used ERA5 monthly data from 1950 2020 estimate annual Theil–Sen Mann–Kendall significance Greece surrounding Additionally, order analyze model nonlinear relationships time series, generalized additive models (GAMs). results indicated significant declining areal study area. Declining were more pronounced winter western eastern but spring, summer autumn mostly not significant. GAMs showcased that generally nonlinearity area presented high inter-decadal variability. Combining results, concluded did linearly 7 decades, first increased 1950s late 1960s, consequently decreased until early 1990s and, afterwards, an increase with a smaller rate than 1950–1960s.

Language: Английский

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Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1), P. 81 - 100

Published: Jan. 26, 2023

Abstract. Detection and attribution (D&A) of forced precipitation change are challenging due to internal variability, limited spatial, temporal coverage observational records model uncertainty. These factors result in a low signal-to-noise ratio potential regional even global trends. Here, we use statistical method – ridge regression create physically interpretable fingerprints for the detection changes mean extreme with high ratio. The constructed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model output masked match three gridded datasets GHCNDEX, HadEX3, GPCC then applied these assess degree detectable real-world climate period 1951–2020. We show that signature is detected all metrics precipitation. Forced still from spatial patterns if trend removed data. This shows beyond robust increases confidence method's power as well models' ability capture relevant processes contribute large-scale change. also find, however, detectability depends on dataset used. Not only differences but uncertainty disagreement, exemplified by times emergence variability ranging 1998 2004 among datasets. Furthermore, different choices over which computed levels agreement between observations projections. sensitivities may explain apparent contradictions recent studies whether models under- or overestimate observed increase Lastly, found rely primarily signal extratropical Northern Hemisphere, at least partly potentially presence more Hemisphere general.

Language: Английский

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Trends and Variability in Precipitation Across Turkey: A Multi-Method Statistical Analysis

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Sept. 6, 2023

Analyzing trends in precipitation data is crucial for understanding the effects of climate change and making informed decisions about water management crop patterns. The objective presented study was to investigate trends, analyze temporal spatial variations, identify potential points Turkey throughout period from 1980 2019. Precipitation were analyzed both regional 81 meteorological stations on a monthly, seasonal annual basis. Spearman rank correlation Mann-Kendall tests utilized detect possible Sen's slope test estimate magnitude entire time series. average amount determined 639.2 mm between 1980–2019 years. While Central Anatolian Eastern regions had below mm, other above. range values found winter 128.7-320.8 108.9–260.0 spring, 43.9-109.3 summer 79.7-238.4 autumn. analysis revealed no significant increase or decrease basis, with greatest basis being observed winter. 40-yr belonging decreasing 23 provinces increasing 58 provinces, 11 them (14% total) be statistically significant. Moreover, November month particular significance terms changes across country, 80 out provinces. Spatial distribution showed that variation decreased as one moved southern northern country.

Language: Английский

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