The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal Year: 2013, Volume and Issue: 94(9), P. 1339 - 1360

Published: July 15, 2013

The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is a flexible and extensible community tool used to investigate diverse set of system interactions across multiple time space scales. This global coupled model significantly extends its predecessor, the Climate Model, by incorporating new simulation capabilities. These comprise ability simulate biogeochemical cycles, including those carbon nitrogen, variety atmospheric chemistry options, Greenland Ice Sheet, an atmosphere that lower thermosphere. other capabilities are enabling investigations into wide range pressing scientific questions, providing foresight possible future climates increasing our collective knowledge about behavior system. Simulations with numerous configurations CESM have been provided phase 5 Coupled Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) being analyzed broad scientists. Additionally, source code associated documentation freely available use for studies, making it true tool. article describes this various configurations, highlights number

Language: Английский

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The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(1)

Published: Aug. 11, 2022

Abstract In recent decades, the warming in Arctic has been much faster than rest of world, a phenomenon known as amplification. Numerous studies report that is either twice, more or even three times fast globe on average. Here we show, by using several observational datasets which cover region, during last 43 years nearly four globe, higher ratio generally reported literature. We compared observed amplification with simulated state-of-the-art climate models, and found four-fold over 1979–2021 an extremely rare occasion model simulations. The ratios are consistent each other if calculated longer period; however comparison obscured uncertainties before 1979. Our results indicate unlikely event, models systematically tend to underestimate

Language: Английский

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Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 13(10), P. 103001 - 103001

Published: Sept. 3, 2018

The decline in the floating sea ice cover Arctic is one of most striking manifestations climate change. In this review, we examine ongoing loss across all seasons. Our analysis based on satellite retrievals, atmospheric reanalysis, climate-model simulations and a literature review. We find that relative to 1981–2010 reference period, recent anomalies spring winter coverage have been more significant than any observed drop summer extent (SIE) throughout period. For example, SIE May November 2016 was almost four standard deviations below these months. Decadal during months has accelerated from −2.4 %/decade 1979 1999 −3.4%/decade 2000 onwards. also regional for given region, seasonal larger closer region outer edge cover. Finally, months, identify robust linear relationship between pan-Arctic total anthropogenic CO2 emissions. annual cycle per ton emissions ranges slightly above 1 m2 3 summer. Based extrapolation trends, Ocean will become sea-ice free August September an additional 800 ± 300 Gt emissions, while it becomes July October 1400

Language: Английский

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The Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model Version 2.0, MRI-ESM2.0: Description and Basic Evaluation of the Physical Component

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Ser II, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 97(5), P. 931 - 965

Published: Jan. 1, 2019

The new Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2.0 (MRI-ESM2.0) has been developed based on previous models, MRI-CGCM3 and MRI-ESM1, which participated in the fifth phase of Coupled Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). These models underwent numerous improvements meant for highly accurate climate reproducibility. This paper describes model formulation updates evaluates basic performance its physical components. nominal horizontal resolutions 100 km atmosphere ocean components, similar to models. atmospheric vertical resolution is 80 layers, enhanced from 48 layers predecessor. Accumulation various concerning clouds, such as a stratocumulus cloud scheme, led remarkable reduction errors shortwave, longwave, net radiation at top atmosphere. resulting are sufficiently small compared with those CMIP5 improved distribution brings meridional heat transport required contributes reduced surface air temperature (SAT) bias. MRI-ESM2.0 displays realistic reproduction both mean interannual variability. For instance, stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation can now be realistically expressed through introduction non-orographic gravity wave drag parameterization. historical experiment, reasonably reproduces global SAT change recent decades; however, cooling 1950s 1960s warming afterward overestimated observations. many aspects over expected demonstrate superior experiments planned CMIP6.

Language: Английский

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A compound event framework for understanding extreme impacts

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Journal Year: 2013, Volume and Issue: 5(1), P. 113 - 128

Published: Sept. 30, 2013

Climate and weather variables such as rainfall, temperature, pressure are indicators for hazards tropical cyclones, floods, fires. The impact of these events can be due to a single variable being in an extreme state, but more often it is the result combination not all which necessarily extreme. Here, or that lead referred compound event. Any given event will depend upon nature number physical variables, range spatial temporal scales, strength dependence between processes, perspective stakeholder who defines impact. Modeling large, complex, interdisciplinary undertaking. To facilitate this task we propose use influence diagrams defining, mapping, analyzing, modeling, communicating risk Ultimately, greater appreciation further insight changed on how risks associated with climate‐related hazards. WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:113–128. doi: 10.1002/wcc.252 This article categorized under: Models > Knowledge Generation Assessing Impacts Representing Uncertainty

Language: Английский

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Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 10(1), P. 20 - 29

Published: Dec. 23, 2019

Language: Английский

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Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2013, Volume and Issue: 8(12), P. e81648 - e81648

Published: Dec. 3, 2013

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, data, simple representations the carbon cycle temperature to define emission reductions needed stabilize avoid potentially disastrous on today’s young people, future generations, nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions 100 storage in biosphere soil would keep close Holocene range which humanity other species are adapted. Cumulative ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C warming, spur “slow” feedbacks eventual 3–4°C consequences. Rapid reduction is required restore balance ocean heat uptake that practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation high emissions, given current knowledge consequences, be an act extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price preclude from most remaining coal unconventional fuels phase down conventional fuels.

Language: Английский

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Arctic sea ice in transformation: A review of recent observed changes and impacts on biology and human activity

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 52(3), P. 185 - 217

Published: May 15, 2014

Sea ice in the Arctic is one of most rapidly changing components global climate system. Over past few decades, summer areal extent has declined over 30%, and all months show statistically significant declining trends. New satellite missions techniques have greatly expanded information on sea thickness, but many uncertainties remain data long-term records are sparse. However, thickness observations other satellite-derived indicate a 40% decline due large part to loss thicker, older cover. The changes happening faster than models projected. With continued increasing temperatures, ice-free conditions likely sometime coming though there substantial exact timing high interannual variability will as decreases. already having an impact flora fauna Arctic. Some species face challenges future, while new habitat open up for species. also affecting people living working Native communities facing their traditional ways life, opportunities shipping, fishing, natural resource extraction. Significant progress been made recent years understanding its role climate, ecosystem, human activities. furthering knowledge processes, impacts, future evolution

Language: Английский

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Arctic amplification is caused by sea-ice loss under increasing CO2

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: Jan. 4, 2019

Abstract Warming in the Arctic has been much faster than rest of world both observations and model simulations, a phenomenon known as amplification (AA) whose cause is still under debate. By analyzing data here we show that large AA occurs only from October to April over areas with significant sea-ice loss. largely disappears when sea ice fixed or melts away. Periods larger are associated loss, models bigger loss produce AA. Increased outgoing longwave radiation heat fluxes newly opened waters AA, whereas all other processes can indirectly contribute by melting sea-ice. We conclude necessary for existence need simulate realistically order correctly warming increasing CO 2 .

Language: Английский

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Ecological Consequences of Sea-Ice Decline

Science, Journal Year: 2013, Volume and Issue: 341(6145), P. 519 - 524

Published: Aug. 1, 2013

After a decade with nine of the lowest arctic sea-ice minima on record, including historically low minimum in 2012, we synthesize recent developments study ecological responses to decline. Sea-ice loss emerges as an important driver marine and terrestrial dynamics, influencing productivity, species interactions, population mixing, gene flow, pathogen disease transmission. Major challenges near future include assigning clearer attribution sea ice primary such especially systems, addressing pressures arising from human use coastal near-shore areas diminishes.

Language: Английский

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