Future climate risk from compound events

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 8(6), P. 469 - 477

Published: May 11, 2018

Language: Английский

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Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 52(3), P. 522 - 555

Published: July 25, 2014

Evidence that extreme rainfall intensity is increasing at the global scale has strengthened considerably in recent years. Research now indicates greatest increases are likely to occur short-duration storms lasting less than a day, potentially leading an increase magnitude and frequency of flash floods. This review examines evidence for subdaily intensification due anthropogenic climate change describes our current physical understanding association between atmospheric temperature. We also examine nature, quality, quantity information needed allow society adapt successfully predicted future changes, discuss roles observational modeling studies helping us better understand processes can influence characteristics. conclude by describing types research required produce more thorough relationships local-scale thermodynamic effects, large-scale circulation, intensity.

Language: Английский

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A typology of compound weather and climate events

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 1(7), P. 333 - 347

Published: June 15, 2020

Language: Английский

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Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US cities

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 5(12), P. 1093 - 1097

Published: July 27, 2015

Language: Английский

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Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 3(6)

Published: June 2, 2017

Compound climate extremes are receiving increasing attention because of their disproportionate impacts on humans and ecosystems. However, risks assessments generally focus univariate statistics. We analyze the co-occurrence hot dry summers show that these correlated, inducing a much higher frequency concurrent than what would be assumed from independent combination Our results demonstrate how dependence structure between variables affects occurrence multivariate extremes. Assessments based statistics can thus strongly underestimate associated with given extremes, if depend multiple (dependent) variables. conclude perspective is necessary to appropriately assess changes in design adaptation strategies.

Language: Английский

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Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 372(1723), P. 20160135 - 20160135

Published: May 8, 2017

Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity frequency over recent decades. These changes been linked human-induced change, while the degree which change impacts an individual event (ECE) is more difficult quantify. Rapid progress attribution has recently made through improved understanding of observed simulated variability, methods for advances numerical modelling. Attribution events stronger compared with other types, notably those related hydrological cycle. Recent ECEs, both observations their representation state-of-the-art models, open new opportunities assessing effect on human natural systems. Improved spatial resolution global models statistical dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate temporal scales. Together continued development Earth System Models simulate biogeochemical cycles interactions biosphere increasing complexity, these make it possible develop a mechanistic how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning adaptation capabilities. Limitations observational network, physical system parameters even so long-term ecological monitoring, hampered bio-physical across range New modulate structure arise from better scientific coupled technological observing systems instrumentation. This article part themed issue ‘Behavioural, evolutionary responses events’.

Language: Английский

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Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 48(1), P. 519 - 548

Published: Feb. 20, 2020

Climate extremes threaten human health, economic stability, and the well-being of natural built environments (e.g., 2003 European heat wave). As world continues to warm, climate hazards are expected increase in frequency intensity. The impacts extreme events will also be more severe due increased exposure (growing population development) vulnerability (aging infrastructure) settlements. models attribute part projected increases intensity disasters anthropogenic emissions changes land use cover. Here, we review impacts, historical changes,and theoretical research gaps key (heat waves, droughts, wildfires, precipitation, flooding). We highlight need improve our understanding dependence between individual interrelated because anthropogenic-induced warming risk not only but compound (co-occurring) cascading hazards. ▪ a world. Anthropogenic-induced causes drivers

Language: Английский

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Global warming and changes in risk of concurrent climate extremes: Insights from the 2014 California drought

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 41(24), P. 8847 - 8852

Published: Dec. 8, 2014

Abstract Global warming and the associated rise in extreme temperatures substantially increase chance of concurrent droughts heat waves. The 2014 California drought is an archetype event characterized by not only low precipitation but also high temperatures. From raging wildfires, to record storage levels snowpack conditions, impacts this can be felt throughout California. Wintertime water shortages worry decision‐makers most because it season build up supplies for rest year. Here we show that traditional univariate risk assessment methods based on condition may underestimate events such as ignoring effects temperature. We argue a multivariate viewpoint necessary assessing events, especially climate. This study discusses methodology extremes

Language: Английский

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Substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves in the United States

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 112(37), P. 11484 - 11489

Published: Aug. 31, 2015

Significance Climatic extremes cause significant damage to the environment and society, can even more when multiple occur simultaneously. This study shows that although there is no trend in meteorological drought, concurrence of droughts heatwaves statistically increases across United States. We show tail distribution concurrent drought heatwave conditions has shifted toward frequent extreme extremes. Our outlines a statistical approach for investigating continuous change cumulative functions climatic

Language: Английский

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Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change

Climatic Change, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 151(3-4), P. 555 - 571

Published: Nov. 10, 2018

As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement representation uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects probabilistic, based on ensembles model simulations. In face deep uncertainties, known limitations are becoming apparent. An alternative thus emerging which may be called a 'storyline' approach. We define storyline as physically self-consistent unfolding past events, or plausible future events pathways. No priori probability assessed; emphasis placed instead understanding driving factors involved, and plausibility those factors. introduce typology four reasons using storylines represent change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing an event-oriented rather than probabilistic manner, corresponds more directly how people perceive respond risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making allowing one work backward from particular vulnerability decision point, combining with other relevant address compound develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing basis partitioning uncertainty, thereby use credible regional models conditioned manner (iv) exploring boundaries plausibility, guarding against false precision surprise. Storylines also offer powerful way linking human change.

Language: Английский

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