Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(1)

Published: Jan. 7, 2021

Abstract The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, radiative power fires, and extraordinary number fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events were all unmatched historical record. Australia’s hottest driest year on record, 2019, characterised by exceptionally dry fuel loads primed landscape to burn when exposed dangerous fire weather ignition. combination climate variability long-term trends generated extremes experienced compounding effects two or more modes their fire-promoting phases (as occurred 2019) has historically increased chances large occurring Australia. Palaeoclimate evidence also demonstrates tropical Pacific Indian ocean are now unusually frequent compared with natural pre-industrial times. Indicators danger have already emerged outside range experience, suggesting projections made than a decade ago increases climate-driven risk would be detectable 2020, indeed eventuated. multiple change contributors Australia, as well observed non-linear escalation extent intensity, raise likelihood may continue rapidly intensify future. Improving local national adaptation measures while pursuing ambitious global mitigation efforts provide best strategy for limiting further

Language: Английский

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Global predictions of primary soil salinization under changing climate in the 21st century

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Nov. 18, 2021

Soil salinization has become one of the major environmental and socioeconomic issues globally this is expected to be exacerbated further with projected climatic change. Determining how climate change influences dynamics naturally-occurring soil scarcely been addressed due highly complex processes influencing salinization. This paper sets out address long-standing challenge by developing data-driven models capable predicting primary (naturally-occurring) salinity its variations in world's drylands up year 2100 under changing climate. Analysis future predictions made here identifies dryland areas South America, southern western Australia, Mexico, southwest United States, Africa as hotspots. Conversely, we project a decrease northwest Horn Africa, Eastern Europe, Turkmenistan, west Kazakhstan response over same period. Excess salt accumulation root zone causes health, biodiversity food security. Authors used machine learning algorithms predict global scale 21st century.

Language: Английский

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Projected Changes in Climate Extremes Using CMIP6 Simulations Over SREX Regions

Earth Systems and Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 5(3), P. 481 - 497

Published: Aug. 23, 2021

This paper presents projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) data for mid-century (2036–2065) end-century (2070–2099) periods with respect to the reference period (1985–2014). Four indices namely, Annual maximum of (TXx), Extreme heat wave days frequency (HWFI), consecutive 5-day (RX5day), Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) were investigated under four socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1-2.6; SSP2-4.5; SSP3-7.0; SSP5-8.5) over entire globe its 26 Special Report on Managing Risks Events Disasters Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) regions. The projections show an increase intensity hot extremes land. hottest (as measured TXx) is more extratropical regions than tropics, while extremely HWFI) tropics. Drought CDD) Brazil, Mediterranean, South Africa, Australia. Meanwhile, Asian monsoon (i.e., Asia, East Southeast Asia) become prone flash flooding later twenty-first century as shown higher RX5day index projections. reveal large spatial variability within each SREX region. studied increases increasing greenhouse gas concentration (GHG) at end century. change pattern their minimum low-emission scenario SSP1-2.6. Our results indicate that increased GHG leads substantial intensities. Hence, limiting CO2 emissions could substantially limit risks associated

Language: Английский

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Temperature dataset of CMIP6 models over China: evaluation, trend and uncertainty

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 57(1-2), P. 17 - 35

Published: Feb. 17, 2021

Language: Английский

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Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 models in simulating mean and extreme precipitation over East Africa

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 41(15), P. 6474 - 6496

Published: May 18, 2021

Abstract This study examines the improvement in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) models against predecessor CMIP5 simulating mean and extreme precipitation over East Africa region. The compares climatology of indices simulated by CMIP with CHIRPS data set using robust statistical techniques for 1981–2005. results display varying performance general circulation (GCMs) simulation annual seasonal domain. CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble (hereafter MME) shows improved local cycle a better representation rainfall within two peaks, especially MAM relative to their predecessor. Moreover, is well captured CMIP5. CMIP6‐MME performed than CMIP5‐MME lesser biases Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), consecutive dry days (CDD), very heavy >20 mm (R20mm) Africa. Remarkably, most are unable simulate extremely wet (R95p). Some (e.g., NorESM2‐MM CNRM‐CM6‐1) depict reproducing observed across all analyses. OND season some (i.e., R95p, PRCPTOT), except SDII, CDD, R20mm models. Consistent other studies, both CMIP5/6 as compared individual due cancellation systematic errors Generally, depicts However, new model generation still marred uncertainty, thereby depicting unsatisfactory calls further investigation into sources persistent methodology identifying features that can accurately patterns future usage.

Language: Английский

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Projection of climate extremes in China, an incremental exercise from CMIP5 to CMIP6

Science Bulletin, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 66(24), P. 2528 - 2537

Published: July 21, 2021

This paper presents projections of climate extremes over China under global warming 1.5, 2, and 3 °C above pre-industrial (1861-1900), based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations. Results are compared with what produced by precedent project, CMIP5. evaluation for reference period (1985-2005) indicates that CMIP6 models outperform their predecessors in CMIP5, especially simulating precipitation extremes. Areal averages changes most indices found larger than The emblematic annual mean temperature, when averaged whole CMIP6, increases 1.49, 2.21, 3.53 (relative to 1985-2005) above-preindustrial levels, while counterpart CMIP5 is 1.20, 1.93 3.39 respectively. Similarly, total 5.3%, 8.6%, 16.3% 4.4%, 7.0% 12.8% spatial distribution extreme generally consistent both but significantly higher Northeast Northwest hottest day South coldest night temperature. In south bank Yangtze River, regions around 40°N, shows heavy precipitation. projected difference between mainly attributable physical upgrading largely independent from emission scenarios.

Language: Английский

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Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure

Weather and Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(1), P. 337 - 360

Published: March 31, 2022

Abstract. Future changes in extratropical cyclones and the associated storm tracks are uncertain. Using new CMIP6 models, we investigate to seasonal mean composite wind speeds at different levels of troposphere for winter summer seasons both Northern Hemisphere (NH) Southern (SH). Changes assessed across four climate scenarios. The predicted shift polewards SH also North Pacific, with an extension into Europe Atlantic track. Overall, number will decrease by ∼5 % end 21st century, although extreme increase 4 NH winter. Cyclone projected strengthen throughout SH, a weakening summer, there minimal maximum speed lower troposphere. concentrated warm sector cyclones, area winds may be up 40 larger century. largest seen SSP5-85 scenario, large amount change can mitigated restricting warming that SSP1-26 2-45 Extreme show increases peak vorticity than average-strength showing sector.

Language: Английский

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Intercomparison of the expected change in the temperature and the precipitation retrieved from CMIP6 and CMIP5 climate projections: A Mediterranean hot spot case, Turkey

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 256, P. 105576 - 105576

Published: March 19, 2021

Language: Английский

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Future loss of local-scale thermal refugia in coral reef ecosystems

PLOS Climate, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 1(2), P. e0000004 - e0000004

Published: Feb. 1, 2022

Thermal refugia underpin climate-smart management of coral reefs, but whether current thermal will remain so under future warming is uncertain. We use statistical downscaling to provide the highest resolution stress projections (0.01°/1 km, >230,000 reef pixels) currently available for reefs and identify on locally manageable scales. Here, we show that climate change overwhelm local-scale refugia, with declines in global from 84% pixels present-day 0.2% at 1.5°C, 0% 2.0°C warming. Local-scale oceanographic features such as upwelling strong ocean currents only rarely refugia. confirm 1.5°C relative pre-industrial levels be catastrophic reefs. Focusing efforts may effective short-term. Promoting adaptation higher temperatures facilitating migration instead needed secure survival.

Language: Английский

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Selecting CMIP6 GCMs for CORDEX Dynamical Downscaling: Model Performance, Independence, and Climate Change Signals

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(4)

Published: March 22, 2022

Abstract Global climate models (GCMs) are essential for investigating change, but their coarse scale limits efficacy adaptation planning at the regional scales where impacts manifest. Dynamical downscaling of GCM outputs better resolves and thus provides improved guidance policy scales. Being expensive to run, uses a subset GCMs, necessitating careful selection. This evaluation identifies suitable CMIP6 GCMs over Australia by assessing individual against three criteria: (a) performance simulating daily variable distributions, means, extremes, modes; (b) model independence; (c) change signal diversity. Over Australia, generally biased cold (warm) maximum (minimum) temperature, with larger biases minimum temperature. wet biased, especially monsoonal north, dry eastern regions. Most show temperature precipitation geographically complex, heavily populated regions, relative other Evaluations identify distinct group 11 that perform consistently poorly across variables, statistics, timescales widespread, statistically significant biases, versus 13 consistent adequate‐to‐good substantially reduced errors. Assessment independence highlights lack between several high‐performing particularly from allied modeling groups, demonstrating importance ensemble selection when making selective samples space. Once diversity is considered, 6–8 mid‐to‐high‐performing, independent occupy full range future space and, thus, dynamical CORDEX‐Australasia.

Language: Английский

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