Climate Dynamics,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
56(7-8), P. 2289 - 2302
Published: Jan. 2, 2021
Abstract
Most
of
the
rainfall
in
southern
Australia
is
associated
with
cyclones,
cold
fronts,
and
thunderstorms,
cases
when
these
weather
systems
co-occur
are
particularly
likely
to
cause
extreme
rainfall.
Rainfall
declines
some
parts
during
cool
half
year
recent
decades
have
previously
been
attributed
decreases
from
fronts
and/or
while
thunderstorm-related
has
observed
increase,
warm
year.
However,
co-occurrence
systems,
cyclones
or
can
be
very
important
for
areas,
heavy
rainfall,
changes
frequency
combined
not
assessed.
In
this
paper
we
show
that
majority
season
decline
between
1979–1996
1997–2015
southeast
a
decrease
produce
there
simultaneously
an
increase
thunderstorms
do
regions.
Thunderstorm
increased
much
Australia,
year,
including
where
thunderstorm
environment
occurs
at
same
time
as
cyclone
front.
Abstract
The
2019/20
Black
Summer
bushfire
disaster
in
southeast
Australia
was
unprecedented:
the
extensive
area
of
forest
burnt,
radiative
power
fires,
and
extraordinary
number
fires
that
developed
into
extreme
pyroconvective
events
were
all
unmatched
historical
record.
Australia’s
hottest
driest
year
on
record,
2019,
characterised
by
exceptionally
dry
fuel
loads
primed
landscape
to
burn
when
exposed
dangerous
fire
weather
ignition.
combination
climate
variability
long-term
trends
generated
extremes
experienced
compounding
effects
two
or
more
modes
their
fire-promoting
phases
(as
occurred
2019)
has
historically
increased
chances
large
occurring
Australia.
Palaeoclimate
evidence
also
demonstrates
tropical
Pacific
Indian
ocean
are
now
unusually
frequent
compared
with
natural
pre-industrial
times.
Indicators
danger
have
already
emerged
outside
range
experience,
suggesting
projections
made
than
a
decade
ago
increases
climate-driven
risk
would
be
detectable
2020,
indeed
eventuated.
multiple
change
contributors
Australia,
as
well
observed
non-linear
escalation
extent
intensity,
raise
likelihood
may
continue
rapidly
intensify
future.
Improving
local
national
adaptation
measures
while
pursuing
ambitious
global
mitigation
efforts
provide
best
strategy
for
limiting
further
Nature Communications,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
12(1)
Published: Nov. 18, 2021
Soil
salinization
has
become
one
of
the
major
environmental
and
socioeconomic
issues
globally
this
is
expected
to
be
exacerbated
further
with
projected
climatic
change.
Determining
how
climate
change
influences
dynamics
naturally-occurring
soil
scarcely
been
addressed
due
highly
complex
processes
influencing
salinization.
This
paper
sets
out
address
long-standing
challenge
by
developing
data-driven
models
capable
predicting
primary
(naturally-occurring)
salinity
its
variations
in
world's
drylands
up
year
2100
under
changing
climate.
Analysis
future
predictions
made
here
identifies
dryland
areas
South
America,
southern
western
Australia,
Mexico,
southwest
United
States,
Africa
as
hotspots.
Conversely,
we
project
a
decrease
northwest
Horn
Africa,
Eastern
Europe,
Turkmenistan,
west
Kazakhstan
response
over
same
period.
Excess
salt
accumulation
root
zone
causes
health,
biodiversity
food
security.
Authors
used
machine
learning
algorithms
predict
global
scale
21st
century.
Earth Systems and Environment,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
5(3), P. 481 - 497
Published: Aug. 23, 2021
This
paper
presents
projected
changes
in
extreme
temperature
and
precipitation
events
by
using
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
phase
6
(CMIP6)
data
for
mid-century
(2036–2065)
end-century
(2070–2099)
periods
with
respect
to
the
reference
period
(1985–2014).
Four
indices
namely,
Annual
maximum
of
(TXx),
Extreme
heat
wave
days
frequency
(HWFI),
consecutive
5-day
(RX5day),
Consecutive
Dry
Days
(CDD)
were
investigated
under
four
socioeconomic
scenarios
(SSP1-2.6;
SSP2-4.5;
SSP3-7.0;
SSP5-8.5)
over
entire
globe
its
26
Special
Report
on
Managing
Risks
Events
Disasters
Advance
Climate
Change
Adaptation
(SREX)
regions.
The
projections
show
an
increase
intensity
hot
extremes
land.
hottest
(as
measured
TXx)
is
more
extratropical
regions
than
tropics,
while
extremely
HWFI)
tropics.
Drought
CDD)
Brazil,
Mediterranean,
South
Africa,
Australia.
Meanwhile,
Asian
monsoon
(i.e.,
Asia,
East
Southeast
Asia)
become
prone
flash
flooding
later
twenty-first
century
as
shown
higher
RX5day
index
projections.
reveal
large
spatial
variability
within
each
SREX
region.
studied
increases
increasing
greenhouse
gas
concentration
(GHG)
at
end
century.
change
pattern
their
minimum
low-emission
scenario
SSP1-2.6.
Our
results
indicate
that
increased
GHG
leads
substantial
intensities.
Hence,
limiting
CO2
emissions
could
substantially
limit
risks
associated
International Journal of Climatology,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
41(15), P. 6474 - 6496
Published: May 18, 2021
Abstract
This
study
examines
the
improvement
in
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
Phase
Six
(CMIP6)
models
against
predecessor
CMIP5
simulating
mean
and
extreme
precipitation
over
East
Africa
region.
The
compares
climatology
of
indices
simulated
by
CMIP
with
CHIRPS
data
set
using
robust
statistical
techniques
for
1981–2005.
results
display
varying
performance
general
circulation
(GCMs)
simulation
annual
seasonal
domain.
CMIP6
multi‐model
ensemble
(hereafter
MME)
shows
improved
local
cycle
a
better
representation
rainfall
within
two
peaks,
especially
MAM
relative
to
their
predecessor.
Moreover,
is
well
captured
CMIP5.
CMIP6‐MME
performed
than
CMIP5‐MME
lesser
biases
Simple
Daily
Intensity
Index
(SDII),
consecutive
dry
days
(CDD),
very
heavy
>20
mm
(R20mm)
Africa.
Remarkably,
most
are
unable
simulate
extremely
wet
(R95p).
Some
(e.g.,
NorESM2‐MM
CNRM‐CM6‐1)
depict
reproducing
observed
across
all
analyses.
OND
season
some
(i.e.,
R95p,
PRCPTOT),
except
SDII,
CDD,
R20mm
models.
Consistent
other
studies,
both
CMIP5/6
as
compared
individual
due
cancellation
systematic
errors
Generally,
depicts
However,
new
model
generation
still
marred
uncertainty,
thereby
depicting
unsatisfactory
calls
further
investigation
into
sources
persistent
methodology
identifying
features
that
can
accurately
patterns
future
usage.
Science Bulletin,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
66(24), P. 2528 - 2537
Published: July 21, 2021
This
paper
presents
projections
of
climate
extremes
over
China
under
global
warming
1.5,
2,
and
3
°C
above
pre-industrial
(1861-1900),
based
on
the
latest
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
phase
6
(CMIP6)
simulations.
Results
are
compared
with
what
produced
by
precedent
project,
CMIP5.
evaluation
for
reference
period
(1985-2005)
indicates
that
CMIP6
models
outperform
their
predecessors
in
CMIP5,
especially
simulating
precipitation
extremes.
Areal
averages
changes
most
indices
found
larger
than
The
emblematic
annual
mean
temperature,
when
averaged
whole
CMIP6,
increases
1.49,
2.21,
3.53
(relative
to
1985-2005)
above-preindustrial
levels,
while
counterpart
CMIP5
is
1.20,
1.93
3.39
respectively.
Similarly,
total
5.3%,
8.6%,
16.3%
4.4%,
7.0%
12.8%
spatial
distribution
extreme
generally
consistent
both
but
significantly
higher
Northeast
Northwest
hottest
day
South
coldest
night
temperature.
In
south
bank
Yangtze
River,
regions
around
40°N,
shows
heavy
precipitation.
projected
difference
between
mainly
attributable
physical
upgrading
largely
independent
from
emission
scenarios.
Weather and Climate Dynamics,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
3(1), P. 337 - 360
Published: March 31, 2022
Abstract.
Future
changes
in
extratropical
cyclones
and
the
associated
storm
tracks
are
uncertain.
Using
new
CMIP6
models,
we
investigate
to
seasonal
mean
composite
wind
speeds
at
different
levels
of
troposphere
for
winter
summer
seasons
both
Northern
Hemisphere
(NH)
Southern
(SH).
Changes
assessed
across
four
climate
scenarios.
The
predicted
shift
polewards
SH
also
North
Pacific,
with
an
extension
into
Europe
Atlantic
track.
Overall,
number
will
decrease
by
∼5
%
end
21st
century,
although
extreme
increase
4
NH
winter.
Cyclone
projected
strengthen
throughout
SH,
a
weakening
summer,
there
minimal
maximum
speed
lower
troposphere.
concentrated
warm
sector
cyclones,
area
winds
may
be
up
40
larger
century.
largest
seen
SSP5-85
scenario,
large
amount
change
can
mitigated
restricting
warming
that
SSP1-26
2-45
Extreme
show
increases
peak
vorticity
than
average-strength
showing
sector.
PLOS Climate,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
1(2), P. e0000004 - e0000004
Published: Feb. 1, 2022
Thermal
refugia
underpin
climate-smart
management
of
coral
reefs,
but
whether
current
thermal
will
remain
so
under
future
warming
is
uncertain.
We
use
statistical
downscaling
to
provide
the
highest
resolution
stress
projections
(0.01°/1
km,
>230,000
reef
pixels)
currently
available
for
reefs
and
identify
on
locally
manageable
scales.
Here,
we
show
that
climate
change
overwhelm
local-scale
refugia,
with
declines
in
global
from
84%
pixels
present-day
0.2%
at
1.5°C,
0%
2.0°C
warming.
Local-scale
oceanographic
features
such
as
upwelling
strong
ocean
currents
only
rarely
refugia.
confirm
1.5°C
relative
pre-industrial
levels
be
catastrophic
reefs.
Focusing
efforts
may
effective
short-term.
Promoting
adaptation
higher
temperatures
facilitating
migration
instead
needed
secure
survival.
Earth s Future,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
10(4)
Published: March 22, 2022
Abstract
Global
climate
models
(GCMs)
are
essential
for
investigating
change,
but
their
coarse
scale
limits
efficacy
adaptation
planning
at
the
regional
scales
where
impacts
manifest.
Dynamical
downscaling
of
GCM
outputs
better
resolves
and
thus
provides
improved
guidance
policy
scales.
Being
expensive
to
run,
uses
a
subset
GCMs,
necessitating
careful
selection.
This
evaluation
identifies
suitable
CMIP6
GCMs
over
Australia
by
assessing
individual
against
three
criteria:
(a)
performance
simulating
daily
variable
distributions,
means,
extremes,
modes;
(b)
model
independence;
(c)
change
signal
diversity.
Over
Australia,
generally
biased
cold
(warm)
maximum
(minimum)
temperature,
with
larger
biases
minimum
temperature.
wet
biased,
especially
monsoonal
north,
dry
eastern
regions.
Most
show
temperature
precipitation
geographically
complex,
heavily
populated
regions,
relative
other
Evaluations
identify
distinct
group
11
that
perform
consistently
poorly
across
variables,
statistics,
timescales
widespread,
statistically
significant
biases,
versus
13
consistent
adequate‐to‐good
substantially
reduced
errors.
Assessment
independence
highlights
lack
between
several
high‐performing
particularly
from
allied
modeling
groups,
demonstrating
importance
ensemble
selection
when
making
selective
samples
space.
Once
diversity
is
considered,
6–8
mid‐to‐high‐performing,
independent
occupy
full
range
future
space
and,
thus,
dynamical
CORDEX‐Australasia.