Evaluating the performance of key ERA‐Interim, ERA5 and ERA5‐Land climate variables across Siberia DOI Creative Commons
A Clelland, Gareth J. Marshall, Robert Baxter

et al.

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 44(7), P. 2318 - 2342

Published: April 11, 2024

Abstract Reanalysis datasets provide a continuous picture of the past climate for every point on Earth. They are especially useful in areas with few direct observations, such as Siberia. However, to ensure these sufficiently accurate they need be validated against readings from meteorological stations. Here, we analyse how values six variables—the minimum, mean and maximum 2‐metre air temperature, snow depth (SD), total precipitation wind speed (WSP)—from three reanalysis datasets—ERA‐Interim, ERA5 ERA5‐Land—compare observations 29 stations across Siberia Russian Far East daily timescale 1979 2019. All reanalyses produce temperature that close those observed, average absolute bias not exceeding 1.54°C. care should taken minimum during summer months—there nine where correlation <0.60 due inadequate night‐time cooling. The SD generally observed after 1992, ERA5, when data some began assimilated, but used caution (if at all) before 1992 lack assimilation leads large overestimations. For low good approximations, however struggle attain extreme high values. Similarly, 10‐metre WSP; perform well speeds up 2.5 ms −1 above 5.0 . variables, recommend using over ERA‐Interim ERA5‐Land future research. shows minor improvements ERA‐Interim, and, despite an increased spatial resolution, there is no advantage ERA5‐Land.

Language: Английский

The ERA5 global reanalysis DOI Creative Commons
Hans Hersbach, Bill Bell,

Paul Berrisford

et al.

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 146(730), P. 1999 - 2049

Published: May 17, 2020

Abstract Within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF is producing ERA5 reanalysis which, once completed, will embody a detailed record of global atmosphere, land surface and ocean waves from 1950 onwards. This new replaces ERA‐Interim (spanning 1979 onwards) which was started in 2006. based on Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) Cy41r2 operational 2016. thus benefits decade developments model physics, core dynamics data assimilation. In addition to significantly enhanced horizontal resolution 31 km, compared 80 km for ERA‐Interim, has hourly output throughout, an uncertainty estimate ensemble (3‐hourly at half resolution). paper describes general set‐up ERA5, as well basic evaluation characteristics performance, with focus dataset onwards currently publicly available. Re‐forecasts analyses show gain up one day skill respect ERA‐Interim. Comparison radiosonde PILOT prior assimilation shows improved fit temperature, wind humidity troposphere, but not stratosphere. A comparison independent buoy much wave height. The reflects evolution observing systems used ERA5. temporal spatial allows weather systems. For precipitation, global‐mean correlation monthly‐mean GPCP increased 67% 77%. general, low‐frequency variability found be represented 10 hPa downwards patterns anomalies temperature match those MERRA‐2 JRA‐55 reanalyses.

Language: Английский

Citations

21598
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 DOI Creative Commons
Mika Rantanen, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Antti Lipponen

et al.

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(1)

Published: Aug. 11, 2022

Abstract In recent decades, the warming in Arctic has been much faster than rest of world, a phenomenon known as amplification. Numerous studies report that is either twice, more or even three times fast globe on average. Here we show, by using several observational datasets which cover region, during last 43 years nearly four globe, higher ratio generally reported literature. We compared observed amplification with simulated state-of-the-art climate models, and found four-fold over 1979–2021 an extremely rare occasion model simulations. The ratios are consistent each other if calculated longer period; however comparison obscured uncertainties before 1979. Our results indicate unlikely event, models systematically tend to underestimate

Language: Английский

Citations

1732
Climate change decisive for Asia’s snow meltwater supply DOI
Philip Kraaijenbrink, Emmy E. Stigter, Tandong Yao

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(7), P. 591 - 597

Published: June 24, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

248
Exceptional warming over the Barents area DOI Creative Commons
Ketil Isaksen, Øyvind Nordli, Б. В. Иванов

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: June 15, 2022

In recent decades, surface air temperature (SAT) data from Global reanalyses points to maximum warming over the northern Barents area. However, a scarcity of observations hampers confidence in this Arctic hotspot region. Here, we study past 20-40 years based on new available SAT and quality controlled comprehensive dataset archipelagos Sea. We identify statistically significant record-high annual up 2.7 °C per decade, with autumn 4.0 decade. Our results are compared most global regional reanalysis sets, as well remote sensing records sea ice concentration (SIC), (SST) high-resolution charts. The pattern is primarily consistent reductions cover confirms general spatial temporal patterns represented by reanalyses. our findings suggest even stronger rate SIC-SAT relation than was known region until now.

Language: Английский

Citations

169
Calibration‐Free Complementary Relationship Estimates Terrestrial Evapotranspiration Globally DOI
Ning Ma, József Szilágyi, Yongqiang Zhang

et al.

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 57(9)

Published: Aug. 2, 2021

Abstract While large‐scale terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) information is essential for our understanding of the Earth's water and energy cycles, substantial differences exist in current global ET products due partly to uncertainties soil‐ vegetation‐related parameters and/or precipitation forcing. Here a calibration‐free complementary relationship (CR) model, driven purely by routine meteorological forcing (air dew‐point temperature, wind speed, net radiation), mainly from ERA5, was employed estimate rates during 1982–2016. Modeled agrees favorably with (a) monthly eddy‐covariance measurements 129 FLUXNET sites, and; (b) water‐balance‐derived 52 basins at multiyear mean annual scales. Additional evaluations demonstrate that CR very competitive, comparison other 12 widely used products. The 35‐years land rate 500 ± 6 mm yr −1 (72.3 0.9 × 10 3 km ) more than 70% area exhibiting increasing over study period. Globally, significantly increased 0.31 1982–2016, suggesting 2.2% increase last 35 years. Model inter‐comparisons indicate values their trend are close median not only chosen but also 20 CMIP6 models. Since this model requires no (except sea‐shore deserts subsequent correction), vegetation or soil data, it could be incorporated into complex hydrological climate models, thereby facilitating simulations.

Language: Английский

Citations

158
The Arctic Surface Climate in CMIP6: Status and Developments since CMIP5 DOI Open Access
Richard Davy, Stephen Outten

Journal of Climate, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 33(18), P. 8047 - 8068

Published: Aug. 17, 2020

Abstract Here we evaluate the sea ice, surface air temperature, and level pressure from 34 of models used in phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for their biases, trends, variability, compare them to CMIP5 ensemble ERA5 period 1979 2004. The principal purpose this assessment is provide an overview ability CMIP6 represent Arctic climate, see how has changed since last CMIP. Overall, find a distinct improvement representation ice volume extent, latter mostly linked improvements seasonal cycle Barents Sea. However, numerous model biases have persisted into including too-cold conditions winter (4-K cold bias) negative trend day-to-day variability over winter. We that under low-emission scenario, SSP126, climate projected stabilize by 2060 with annual mean extent around 2.5 million km 2 temperature 4.7 K warmer than early-twentieth-century average, compared 1.7 warming globally.

Language: Английский

Citations

144
Arctic short-term wind speed forecasting based on CNN-LSTM model with CEEMDAN DOI
Qingyang Li, Guosong Wang, Xinrong Wu

et al.

Energy, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 299, P. 131448 - 131448

Published: April 27, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

27
Arctic marine heatwaves forced by greenhouse gases and triggered by abrupt sea-ice melt DOI Creative Commons
Armineh Barkhordarian, David Nielsen, Dirk Olonscheck

et al.

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: Feb. 13, 2024

Abstract Since 2007, unprecedented marine heatwave events are occurring over the Arctic Ocean. Here we identify fraction of likelihood heatwaves magnitude that is attributable to greenhouse gas forcing. Results reveal primarily triggered by an abrupt sea-ice retreat, which coincides with maximum downward radiative fluxes. Up 82% sea surface temperature variability shallow marginal seas, where prone occur, can be explained net accumulation seasonal heat flux in ocean. Event attribution analysis demonstrates 103-day long 2020 event – most intense (4 ∘ C) recorded so far would exceptionally unlikely absence forcing terms both intensity and duration. Our further results imply if emissions continue rise, along expansion first-year ice extent, moderate will very likely persistently reoccur.

Language: Английский

Citations

22
Over 60% precipitation transformed into terrestrial water storage in global river basins from 2002 to 2021 DOI Creative Commons
Yulong Zhong, Baoming Tian, Hyunglok Kim

et al.

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: Jan. 27, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

7
The ERA5-Land soil temperature bias in permafrost regions DOI Creative Commons
Bin Cao, Stephan Gruber, Donghai Zheng

et al.

˜The œcryosphere, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 14(8), P. 2581 - 2595

Published: Aug. 12, 2020

Abstract. ERA5-Land (ERA5L) is a reanalysis product derived by running the land component of ERA5 at increased resolution. This study evaluates ERA5L soil temperature in permafrost regions based on observations and published products. We find that overestimates northern Canada Alaska but underestimates it mid–low latitudes, leading to an average bias −0.08 ∘C. The warm stronger winter than other seasons. As calculated from its temperature, active-layer thickness near-surface (<1.89 m) area. thought be due part shallow column coarse vertical discretization surface model warmer simulated soil. correlates well with air maximum snow height. A review parameterization simulation example both point low density as possible cause for temperature. apparent disagreement station-based areal evaluation techniques highlights challenges our ability test models. While global reanalyses are important drivers simulation, we conclude data not suited informing research decision making directly. To address this, future products will require permafrost-specific alterations their

Language: Английский

Citations

137