Global Carbon Budget 2020

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 12(4), P. 3269 - 3340

Published: Dec. 10, 2020

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – “global budget” is important to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize data sets methodology quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, land use bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) (SLAND) estimated with process models constrained by observations. resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For last decade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding carbonation (9.4 when included), ELUC 1.6 0.7 yr−1. same decade, GATM 5.1 0.02 (2.4 0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5 0.6 yr−1, SLAND 3.4 0.9 BIM −0.1 indicating near balance sources sinks over decade. year 2019 alone, only about 0.1 % fossil increasing 9.9 (9.7 1.8 for 11.5 (42.2 3.3 GtCO2). Also 2019, 5.4 0.2 (2.5 2.6 3.1 1.2 0.3 GtC. atmospheric reached 409.85 averaged 2019. Preliminary 2020, accounting COVID-19-induced emissions, suggest decrease relative −7 (median estimate) individual estimates four studies −6 %, (−3 −11 %), −13 %. Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2019, but discrepancies up 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison diverse approaches observations shows (1) no consensus (2) persistent low agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) an apparent discrepancy outside tropics, particularly Southern Ocean. This living update documents used this new progress cycle compared previous publications set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, 2014, 2013). presented work at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 2020).

Language: Английский

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Global Carbon Budget 2019

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 11(4), P. 1783 - 1838

Published: Dec. 4, 2019

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere – “global budget” is important to better understand global cycle, support development climate policies, project future change. Here we describe data sets methodology quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFF) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes in concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) (SLAND) estimated with process models constrained by observations. resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, a measure imperfect understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For last decade available (2009–2018), EFF was 9.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GATM 4.9±0.02 yr−1 (2.3±0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5±0.6 SLAND 3.2±0.6 BIM 0.4 indicating overestimated and/or underestimated sinks. year 2018 alone, about 2.1 % fossil increased 10.0±0.5 reaching 10 for first time history, 11.5±0.9 (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also 2018, 5.1±0.2 (2.4±0.1 2.6±0.6 3.5±0.7 0.3 GtC. atmospheric reached 407.38±0.1 averaged over 2018. 2019, preliminary 6–10 months indicate reduced +0.6 (range −0.2 1.5 %) national projections China, USA, EU, India gross domestic product corrected recent intensity economy rest world. Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2018, but discrepancies up 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. A detailed comparison individual estimates introduction broad range observations shows (1) no consensus decade, (2) persistent low agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) an apparent underestimation outside tropics. This living update documents used this new progress cycle compared previous publications set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, 2014, 2013). generated work at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein 2019).

Language: Английский

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Global Carbon Budget 2021

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(4), P. 1917 - 2005

Published: April 26, 2022

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize datasets methodology quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, land use data bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For first time, an approach shown reconcile our ELUC estimate one national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting collective countries' progress. year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative 2019, fossil at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 when carbonation included), was 0.9 0.7 yr−1, for emission 10.2 0.8 (37.4 2.9 GtCO2). Also, GATM 5.0 0.2 (2.4 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 3.0 0.4 SLAND 1 BIM −0.8 yr−1. atmospheric averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ppm. Preliminary 2021 suggest rebound +4.8 (4.2 %) globally. Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2020, but discrepancies up persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows (1) persistent large uncertainty emissions, (2) low agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living update documents used this new progress cycle compared previous publications dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, 2014, 2013). presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 2021).

Language: Английский

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Global Carbon Budget 2022

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(11), P. 4811 - 4900

Published: Nov. 11, 2022

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize data sets methodologies quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, land use bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative 2020, fossil at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 when carbonation included), ELUC was 1.1 0.7 yr−1, for emission (including sink) 10.9 0.8 (40.0 2.9 GtCO2). Also, GATM 5.2 0.2 (2.5 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 0.4 SLAND 3.5 0.9 BIM −0.6 (i.e. sources were too low or sinks high). atmospheric averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ppm. Preliminary 2022 suggest an increase +1.0 (0.1 1.9 %) globally reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2021, but discrepancies up 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extratropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living update documents used this new progress cycle compared previous publications set. presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

Language: Английский

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Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections

Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 17(13), P. 3439 - 3470

Published: July 6, 2020

Abstract. Anthropogenic climate change is projected to lead ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, reductions in near-surface nutrients, and changes primary production, all of which are expected affect marine ecosystems. Here we assess projections these drivers environmental over the twenty-first century from Earth system models (ESMs) participating Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that were forced under CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Projections compared those previous generation (CMIP5) Representative Concentration (RCPs). A total 10 CMIP5 13 used two multi-model ensembles. Under high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, global mean (2080–2099 values relative 1870–1899) ± inter-model SD sea surface temperature, pH, subsurface (100–600 m) oxygen concentration, euphotic (0–100 nitrate depth-integrated production +3.47±0.78 ∘C, -0.44±0.005, -13.27±5.28, -1.06±0.45 mmol m−3 -2.99±9.11 %, respectively. low-emission, high-mitigation SSP1-2.6, corresponding +1.42±0.32 -0.16±0.002, -6.36±2.92, -0.52±0.23 m−3, -0.56±4.12 %. Projected exposure ecosystem depends largely on extent future emissions, consistent with studies. The ESMs generally project greater but lesser declines than comparable radiative forcing. increased warming results a general increase sensitivity CMIP5. This enhanced increases upper-ocean stratification projections, contributes ventilation. acidification primarily consequence SSPs having higher associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations their RCP analogues for same We find no reduction uncertainties, even an net uncertainties CMIP6, as

Language: Английский

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Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 6(26)

Published: June 24, 2020

A historical context is provided for interpreting the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient response (TCR).

Language: Английский

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Global Carbon Budget 2023

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(12), P. 5301 - 5369

Published: Nov. 30, 2023

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize data sets methodology quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based fCO2 products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation Additional lines evidence land sinks provided by atmospheric inversions, oxygen measurements, Earth system resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect incomplete understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2022, EFOS increased 0.9 % relative 2021, fossil at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 when carbonation not included), ELUC was 1.2±0.7 yr−1, for emission (including sink) 11.1±0.8 (40.7±3.2 yr−1). Also, GATM 4.6±0.2 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; denotes parts per million), SOCEAN 2.8±0.4 SLAND 3.8±0.8 BIM −0.1 (i.e. sources marginally too low or high). averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary 2023 suggest an increase +1.1 (0.0 2.1 %) globally reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 above pre-industrial level (around 278 1750). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2022, near-zero overall imbalance, although discrepancies up around 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows following: (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living-data update documents applied this most recent well evolving community presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023).

Language: Английский

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Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 6(12)

Published: March 18, 2020

Strong future warming in some new climate models is less likely as their recent inconsistent with observed trends.

Language: Английский

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Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models and their comparison to CMIP5 models

Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 17(16), P. 4173 - 4222

Published: Aug. 18, 2020

Abstract. Results from the fully and biogeochemically coupled simulations in which CO2 increases at a rate of 1 % yr−1 (1pctCO2) its preindustrial value are analyzed to quantify magnitude carbon–concentration carbon–climate feedback parameters measure response ocean terrestrial carbon pools changes atmospheric concentration resulting change global climate, respectively. The results based on 11 comprehensive Earth system models most recent (sixth) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) compared with eight fifth CMIP (CMIP5). strength is comparable magnitudes over land (mean ± standard deviation = 0.97 0.40 PgC ppm−1) (0.79 0.07 ppm−1), while (−45.1 50.6 ∘C−1) about 3 times larger than (−17.2 5.0 ∘C−1). both feedbacks an order more uncertain as has been seen existing studies. These values their spread CMIP6 have not changed significantly CMIP5 models. absolute lower for that include representation nitrogen cycle. transient climate cumulative emissions (TCRE) considered here 1.77 0.37 ∘C EgC−1 similar found (1.63 0.48 EgC−1) but somewhat reduced model spread. expressions configurations 1pctCO2 simulation simplified when small temperature ignored. Decomposition terms these used gain insight into reasons differing responses among cycle

Language: Английский

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Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1), P. 253 - 293

Published: March 1, 2021

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within Coupled phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range its outcomes by synthesizing results from participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to analysis strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly averages spatial patterns change for surface air temperature precipitation. also compare CMIP6 projections CMIP5 results, especially those scenarios that were designed provide continuity across CMIP phases, at same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well results. precipitation changes end century (2081–2100) encompassing Tier 1 experiments Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5) SSP1-1.9 spans larger compared CMIP5, due higher warming (by close 1.5 ∘C) reached upper 5 %–95 % envelope highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). is both wider radiative new cover sensitivities some models their predecessors. Spatial averaged over have familiar features, an variations confirms model structural be dominant source uncertainty. Models differ with respect size evolution internal variability measured individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These suggest tendency decrease along course this scenario, result will benefit further Benefits mitigation, all else being equal terms societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing developed SSP but which different degrees mitigation been applied. It found mild overshoot few decades around mid-century, represented SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect outcome 2100, return levels gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing possibility, however, other aspects may easily reversible). Central estimates means reach given level might biased inclusion shown faster historical period than observed. Those show reaching ∘C 1850–1900 baseline second half current decade, span between slow fast covering 20 27 years present. 2 early 2039 mean SSP5-8.5 late mid-2060s SSP1-2.6. considered (5 only until mid-2090s.

Language: Английский

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